Matthew Dowd (ABC News-Huffington Post): To get right to the point, I believe Barack Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination setting the table for a great race for the fall.
Here's why:
In doing the math on delegates, it looks highly likely that Obama will end up with a pledged delegate lead when all this is finished by June. Even if Hillary wins some big states along the way, Obama will score enough delegates to keep his count moving.
The super delegates (those 796 party folks who can decide on their own who to vote for and change their mind along the way) will be in an unenviable position when all is said and done. They will be getting unbelievable pressure, especially by the Clintons and their establishment backing, to "pledge" to one or the other.
But here is the deal: how does a party who has protested and screamed and yelled about counting all the votes, that the popular vote matters most, that an election was stolen by the Supreme Court in 2000, go against the votes and participation by voters in the Primary process???
The answer is: I think it's impossible for the Democratic party establishment to go against voters in the Democratic primaries and caucuses.
It would be an untenable position for the super delegates to award the nomination to a candidate who is behind in the pledged delegate count. And if that was to happen, then the November election becomes a very difficult prospect in motivating voters who backed Obama in the nomination process. And since he seems to be the only one inspiring new voters to the polls, it is hard to dampen that enthusiasm.
So the bottom line is: Obama wins the plurality of pledged delegates, then the super delegates really have to go along with what the voters want. Otherwise, what kind of authenticity would the Democratic party have if it is not about counting the votes and it becomes the decision of the Democratic version of the Supreme Court???
Obama wins; then faces John McCain in the general election in an epic generational battle between two candidates who are calling the country to a sense of common interest and who are both about bringing the country together across party lines.
Now that would be a campaign worth the price of admission.
Howie P.S.: Matthew Dowd's recent political work includes serving as the Chief Strategist on two winning reelection efforts – for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006 and for President George W. Bush in 2004.
Barack Obama
3 comments:
What Dowd doesn't say is that Obama will likely also have more super delegates anyway.
Why?
Because if he continues to have a pledged delegate lead, and one that will likely grow, then he will gradually begin to pick up more super delegates than Clinton.
Less than half have picked a side so far, and the coming states represent over 300, so late deciding super delegates will be able to send their support Obama's way.
Neither Obama or Clinton will likely have more than 2025 pledged delegates, but I believe Obama will have more than that when you add his super delegates to his count. So he will have more delegates, more pledged delegates and I believe more super delegates, just through the normal course of the primary season.
This won't please the traditional media dying for a brokered convention, but so be it.
One final point: Florida and Michigan. They may just split their delegates 50-50 and be done with it. Seems the fairest approach to me and looks better than 0.
Actually, Bush didn't win the 2004 election. He never has won a presidential election.
I keep forgetting about that libhom.
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