Scott Ritter: Obama and Iraq---‘Through a Glass, Darkly’

Scott Ritter:

In many ways, the American experience in Iraq has been defined more by the fantasy dreamed up in Washington, D.C., than by the reality on the ground. That fantasy has included the “purple finger revolution,” which came to symbolize Iraq’s first national election of the post-Saddam era (Iraq still lacks a viable, cohesive government); the much-hyped military “surge” of 2006-2007, which had all the real impact of punching air; and the farcical economic “success” of major oil companies bidding on Iraqi oil exploration rights (orchestrated by an Iraqi Oil Ministry lacking both a governmental structure and legal basis for issuing such bids, given the Iraqi Parliament’s inability to pass an oil law. American politicians, aided and abetted by a fawning mainstream media, have fabricated a fiction aimed at a largely ignorant American public that fails to address the real problems in Iraq. It is in this topsy-turvy world created by political hype and media spin that a president can, with a straight face, announce the withdrawal of American “combat troops” from Iraq, while leaving behind six combat brigades (renamed, but not reorganized) comprising some 50,000 troops to fight and die in “noncombat.”

Even more incredible is the notion that this slight-of-hand political maneuvering can accomplish anything that would resolve the issues and problems in Iraq today. In opting to draw down American “combat troops” prior to Iraq resolving its considerable political and economic woes, President Obama has completely flipped the logical, yet flawed, plan that the United States had been acting on for the past seven years, a plan built on three central concepts: economic stability (oil), political stability (democracy) and internal stability (security). Left to its own devices, Iraq would have no choice but to proceed in this manner. The experience of Iraqi Kurdistan, through its autonomous exploitation of its energy resources, demonstrates the critical importance of building a solid economic foundation in order to preserve stability, even at a regional level. The decision to attract big oil to Iraq was driven more by corporate greed than the genuine will of the Iraqi people, as witnessed by the Iraqi Parliament’s continued inability to pass a national oil law. The economic benefits that could be accrued through the exploration and exploitation of Iraq’s oil fields by multinational energy companies are as controversial as they are hypothetical. The current production rate of 2.5 million barrels per day continues to fall short of Iraqi production rates prior to the U.S.-led invasion in April 2003, and optimistic estimates that Iraq will be able to reach a production rate of 12 million barrels per day by 2016, which many analysts scoff at as technically implausible, are unrealistic given the unresolved political and security crises which continue to grip Iraq.

The American occupation of Iraq has produced a subculture of social dependency which is almost colonial in nature. The majority of Iraqis involved in either government or security operations remain entirely dependent on American financial, political and military support. These are the voices that speak the loudest in favor of a continued American presence in Iraq, since any American withdrawal would result in their demise. And yet it is these very voices that have become increasingly marginalized in Iraq. The true centers of political influence lie in the very Shiite and Sunni segments of society the United States has been fighting against these past seven years—Sadr’s followers and the Sunni tribal groups once loyal to Saddam Hussein. The inevitable course of history mandates that these indigenous forces will ultimately prevail over the foreign-imposed artificiality that rules Iraq today. The continued presence of American troops prolongs the inevitable political realignment that must take place for Iraq to have any chance of succeeding as a viable nation state. The presence of American troops also ensures that this transformation will be much more violent than the natural course of events dictate. MORE...

What's the CBO score for Iraq/Afghanistan?

TPM:

Breaking on Capitol Hill: The CBO score of the final Senate health care bill is in, with an $871 billion price tag.

That's up from the last score, $849 billion.

President Obama is expected to speak at 1:30 p.m. and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid thinks he has 60 votes.

Dennis Kucinich: "An occupation fuels an insurgency" (video)

MSNBC-ED Show, video (04:22).

Barack Obama

Monday Morning Excerpts

"Finally a Progressive Budget" (Robert Reich):

President Obama’s new budget is, well, audacious -- not just because it includes several big, audacious initiatives (universally affordable health care, and a cap-and-trade system for coping with global warming, for starters) but also because it represents the biggest redistribution of income from the wealthy to the middle class and poor this nation has seen in more than forty years.

"Iraqi leaders embrace Obama’s withdrawal announcement" (Think Progress):

Yesterday, President Obama announced that he would withdraw combat troops from of Iraq by August 2010. ThinkProgress noted yesterday that several U.S. military service members have embraced the withdrawal timetable. The announcement has also been welcomed by Iraqi leaders, who have favored a U.S. withdrawal for years.

"We're really leaving Iraq" (Juan Cole):

On Friday, nearly six years after George W. Bush's swaggering "Mission Accomplished" speech, a new and humbler president addressed a cheering military audience and declared an end to the Iraq War. But some observers fear that President Barack Obama's blueprint, which extends the American presence for another quarter-decade, raises the possibility of a continued U.S. entanglement in that war.

"All Troops Out By 2011? Not So Fast; Why Obama's Iraq Speech Deserves a Second Look" (Jeremy Scahill):

Some anti-war analysts find hope in President Barack Obama's address at Camp Lejuene in North Carolina on Friday, in which he appeared to spell out a clear date for withdrawal from Iraq.

"I intend to remove all U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of 2011," Obama said in a speech that quickly generated headlines announcing that an end to the occupation is on the horizon. As far as rhetoric goes, Obama's statement seems very clear. But in reality, it is far more complicated.

"Budget chief: Obama will sign spending bill" (AP):

The White House on Sunday downplayed massive deficit spending and President Barack Obama's pledge not to sign legislation laden with billions in earmarks amid Republican criticism that he was recanting on a key campaign promise.

The administration's top budget official, Peter Orszag, said Obama would sign the $410 billion spending bill despite a campaign pledge that he would reject tailored budget requests that let lawmakers send money to their home states. Orszag said Obama would move ahead and overlook the time-tested tradition that lets officials divert millions at a time to pet projects.

It was the Washington equivalent of officials pinching their nose and swallowing a bitter pill.

"This is last year's business," Orszag said, offering an acknowledgment that Obama would sign a bill that doesn't conform with his campaign vows. "We want to just move on. Let's get this bill done, get it into law and move forward."

"Dean Talks About Not Getting HHS And Post-DNC Plans" (Sam Stein):

Having been bypassed for a cabinet post after leaving the DNC, former Gov. Howard Dean has chosen to pursue a multi-faceted career in health care advocacy, progressive political strategy, speeches, education and energy, and even election monitoring.

The Vermont Democrat, whose supporters were hoping to see him end up as Secretary of Health and Human Services, summed up his plans this way: "It is sort of outside government but doing the things that I want to do anyway."

"The Un-Rove" (Andrew Sullivan):

I've learned for two years now not to under-estimate Obama. I watched from the very start of the campaign how he strategized a path to achieving his goals partly by eschewing the kinds of tactics that Washington has come to see as political skill. I think of him in some ways as the Un-Rove.

Barack Obama

"Behind the Get-Out-of-Iraq Plan"

The Daily Beast:

During the campaign, President Barack Obama discussed a 16-month withdrawal from Iraq, but yesterday he revealed a 19-month plan. Where’d those three extra months come from? According to the Associated Press, he added them at the request of field commanders in Iraq. Obama chose the 19-month plan over 16-month and 23-month alternatives after a dozen working groups and 10 interagency meetings. Obama’s plan also backloads the withdrawals, rather than removing one brigade a month as he had discussed during the campaign. Politico says “one reason [for the changes] was that presidential advisers calculated that whatever option Obama chose, even the most passionate in the anti-war camp would most remember that he ended the war — not when.”

Barack Obama

Live video of "Obama announces end of Iraq combat mission"

MSNBC, video (28:48).

Howie P.S.: Now that the live feed is over, video above is the archived version.

Barack Obama

"47 Wrongs Don't Make A Wright" (video)

moblogictv, video (01:38):

Did you know 47 American troops were killed in Iraq last month?

Howie P.S.: Lindsay Campbell comments. H/t to Darryl.

"Kos Just Kicked Some Ass on Hardball"

AmericanHope's Diary on Kos ("Tweety" is the nickname some use for Hardball's host, Chris Matthews):

I don't have a lot to say on this diary except to say that Kos just kicked some serious ass on hardball. Not "W" type kicking ass. Real ass kicking.

I know this is more of a comment than a diary. But I'm really proud of Kos today.

* AmericanHope's diary :: ::

Move the world, Kos!!(edit: transcript thanks to lesliet):

Tweety: Let me go to Markos Moulitsas. Sir, what did you make of the testimony today and the ad that ran in the Times this morning by your colleague here.?

Kos: Well to me, way out in California, it's almost amusing to see how in Washington DC everybody's all up in arms over an ad. You know, we're in the middle of this bloody war, almost 4000 dead, half a trillion dollars spent, and people are going to talk about how inappropriate an ad is? I think it's patently ridiculous. Most people outside this beltway environment really don't care about an ad. They want to see our mem and women coming home safe and sound to their families.

Tweety: What do you make of the Democrat's predicament. They took over Congress to end the war, but they're not ending the war. Markos?

Kos: It's frustrating. I can't fathom how a party that is on the right side of an issue, which is getting out of Iraq, with 60% of the or more public support and being on the right side of the morality scale still is afraid to move forward on this issue.
Tweety: Okay what would you do? You have a very important blog you're a very important person in the anti-war movement, Markos, so what would you have asked him?

Kos: I would have asked him quite simply where he got the numbers he cited.

Tweety: Particularly what number?

Kos: the number of casualities in the past three months. The ones Iraqi civilians are suffering

Is there an opportunity to create a political safe haven? That was the benchmark we were promised. Now they're changing the goalposts. We've heard this song and dance before.

Tweety: Why would a general in the field call for a reduction of 30,000 troops if that wasn't to meet some political ambition to keep the Republicans in line on Capitol Hill?... The army's always said they're undermanned. Why would they say we're not undermanned?

Kos: We've known from the beginning that the surge could not be sustained. This is something that the pentagon has said before, that under the best circumstances they still would have to have a drawdown by March of next year. Now they announce that as some sort of great marker of success when in fact this is something they had noted was logistically necessity.

Tweety: Well done, Markos, well done, because that's something that Colin Powell said a couple of months ago - I heard him say that - that there's gonna have to be this reduction in force anyway by the end of next spring and all he's doing is declaring that a policy.

Kos: Right. So this is not a marker of success, it's just reality and to me it's a little disturbing that the administration needs to spin all of this into some sort of case for the success of the war when the fact is that people have already given up. People have decided in overwhelming numbers, not just in the United States, but in Iraq as well, that they want the US home, people want them home, and they don't care if there's success at this point. It's irrelevant at this point. They want the troops home safe and sound with their families. I wore combat boots. I feel for these guys over there because I know what's it like to be away from family and friends for extended periods of time.

Tweety: I know, you served in the Marines... Let me tell you, you are Archimedes here. You found the lever and you are working it to move the world, sir. You are moving the Democratic Party. Thank you sir for joining us.

"Dodd throws down gauntlet to Obama"

Markos in Kos:

Dodd statement: While we are glad that Senator Obama has called for a change of course in Iraq, he isn't clear as to what he will do to make that happen, or when.

Rhetoric and highly nuanced statements are not going to end this war -- strong leadership and clarity will. That's why Chris Dodd has said that he cannot support the reported Levin-Reed measure if it does not have a firm and enforceable deadline.

We urge Senator Obama, and all the other candidates in the Senate, to state clearly and directly whether or not they will support Iraq legislation if it does not include a firm, enforceable deadline to begin and complete the redeployment of troops from Iraq.

We know that all the candidates want legislation with a deadline, but the question is whether Hillary or Barack would vote for a supplemental that does not include such deadlines.

It's a damn good question.