Poll Analysis: Seattle Mayor and King Co. Exec.

Darryl Holman is a UW professor who knows his numbers. Apparently, in order to get his Ph.D. in anthropology, he had to take a bunch of math classes in college:
Poll Analysis--Seattle Mayoral Race:

A new KING-5/Survey USA poll in the Seattle Mayoral Race was released today. This race has Mike McGinn facing off against Joe Mallahan. Just last week, a Washington Poll poll had Mallahan leading McGinn by 44% to 36% with 20% undecided. The results suggested that Mallahan had an 89.9% probability of winning.

Today’s poll of 586 people (taken over the weekend) shows a tighter race with Mallahan leading McGinn by 45% to 43%. A Monte Carlo analysis (methods) consisting of 1,000,000 simulated elections using the proportions and sample size observed in this poll shows Mallahan winning 635,831 times and McGinn winning 352,638 times. Statistically, the results are a tie. But Mallahan has a small edge with a 64.3% probability of winning; McGinn has a 35.7% probability of winning.

The distribution of election outcomes from the simulation says it better than numbers (see chart above).

The red bars on the left are Mallahan wins, and the blue bars on the right are McGinn wins.

There are a number of possible confounders here that make this extremely close race even more uncertain. Most obvious is the age discrepancy in support which The Stranger’s Eli Sanders points out may lead to some systematic (statistical) bias:

Remember, too, that SurveyUSA only reaches voters with land-lines, and that some of McGinn’s strongest support is among younger voters—who frequently only have cell phones.

Who knows….

Poll Analysis--King Co. Exec. Race:

The non-partisan King County executive race has proud Democrat Dow Constantine squaring off against bashful Republican non-partisan Susan Hutchison. Last week’s Washington Poll gave Constantine a 47% to 34% lead over Hutchison.

A new King-5/Survey USA poll released today essentially confirms last week’s findings. The poll of 614 likely or actual voters gives Constantine a 53% to 43% lead over Hutchison with 5% undecided.

As usual, I’ll use the poll numbers and sample size to assess the probability of each candidate winning (methods are given here). The Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections gives Constantine 962,298 wins and Hutchison 35,378 wins. That is, the poll result provides evidence that Constantine will win Tuesday’s election with a 96.5% probability. Hutchison has a 3.5% probability of winning. Here is the distribution of outcomes from the simulated elections (see chart above).

The red bars are wins for Hutchison, and the blue bars are Constantine wins.

This is the first big test since last November’s initiative made the Executive a non-partisan position. And it sure looks like the electorate won’t be fooled by this non-partisan stuff.

Howie P.S.: As if things aren't complicated enough, here's "King County's Ballot Scanners can't handle close Mayor's race?"(Washblog).

KING 5: "Constantine surges ahead of Hutchison in King Co. Exec. race" (Updated)

UPDATE II:It's back now. I think they scooped themselves for few hours.
UPDATE: KING 5 has taken down the link (below). I don't know why.

KING 5:

In the final KING 5 News poll before votes are counted on Tuesday, Dow Constantine has surged ahead of Susan Hutchison in the race for King County Executive.

The poll of 614 likely and actual voters, conducted by SurveyUSA, gives Constantine 53 percent of the vote over Hutchison's 43 percent. Five percent of voters remain undecided.

It's the first time that Constantine, the King County Council president, has led the former TV news anchor in a KING 5 poll. The last survey, taken three weeks ago, had Hutchison with a five point lead – a 15 point swing.

Sixty percent of respondents say they have already mailed in their ballots. Of those who have already voted, Constantine leads by 12 percent. Based on that, Hutchison would need to carry procrastinators by 14 points or more to win.

Women give a 3-to-2 margin to Constantine over Hutchison. The last poll had the candidates split in that category.

Hutchison has an overwhelming edge among Republicans and conservatives in the non-partisan race, while Constantine leads overwhelmingly among Democrats and liberals.

Voters who label themselves as independent slightly favor Hutchison while those classifying themselves as moderate give Constantine a double-digit advantage.

Less educated voters approve of Hutchison while Constantine has a double digit lead among more educated and more affluent voters.

The survey was conducted between Friday and Sunday.

"Suzie, there you go again!" (video)

David Goldstein, video (01:25).

Howie P.S.: Suzie claims she has made political contributions to "some Democrats and and to some Republicans." FACT: All her contributions were to Republicans.

Fine, but don't lie to us about it.

"Suzie Huckabee" (with video)

Tube3HA, video (02 :17).

Howie P.S.: As David Goldsrein points out, Hutchison is free to support whoever she likes, it's the blatant lying that should concern King County voters. What else is she being dishonest about when she states her positions?

Seattle Times endorses Hutchison; Where's I-1033?

David Goldstein, from "Did Blethen dictate Hutchison endorsement?"

One of the monotonously familiar knocks against bloggers like me is that we are just partisan shills, but if and when we are, at least we’re honest about it. So when an editorial board like the Times’ pretends that its endorsements come through candidate interviews and informed discourse, when in fact they merely reflect the anti-labor, anti-tax, pro-Republican views of their boss… well then… the entire endorsement process becomes just as much a lie as those of Hutchison which their paper has chosen to cover up.

Josh Feit, "Well, At Least One Seattle Times Ed Board Member Doesn’t Like Hutchison."

I was on KUOW this morning with Seattle Times editorial board member Lynne Varner.

We were talking abbout Susan Hutchison and Varner said Hutchison’s GOP allegiances weren’t a problem, it’s more that Hutchison is being disingenuous about it.

I couldn’t agree more. It’s like the old Watergate adage, it’s not the crime, it’s the coverup. Being a Republican isn’t a crime (although this is King County). But seriously, Hutchison’s evasion is the problem.

And I said so on this morning’s show, seconding Varner, pointing out that Hutchison isn’t only being disingenuous, she’s being dishonest. Last night on KCTS , when asked why she donated to a hyper conservative like Mike Huckabee, she told an inncoent-ish story about first hearing of Huckabee in the fall of 2007 from a political friend. (Hutchison wasn’t political she said because she was just coming off being a journalist). The friend, she said, told her about Huckabee and invited her to a Huckabee lunch. Hutchison said she didn’t go to the lunch, but wrote a check for $500 anyway.

Okay, that’s weird in itself: She wrote a check for $500 based on a friend’s recommendation without seeing Huckabee speak?

Yep. It is weird. In fact, its not true. She’d already seen Huckabee speak. And she already had a high opinion of him. Hutchison emceed a 2006 dinner for the Wahsington Policy Center, the local conservative think tank, where Huckabee was the keynote speaker.

A year later, in September 2007, Hutchison emceed the WPC’s dinner again (Jeb Bush was the keynote.) And at that dinner, Hutchison kicked off her speech with a rave about Huckabee. Here’s the video. Go to the seven minute mark and you’ll hear her heap praise on Huckabee.

“As you know if you’ve been here before, our speakers inform, inspire and predict the future. Anyone who was here last year is not surprised that Mike Huckabee is perfroming well in the presidential race for the Republican primary. You may recall that last year Mike warned of the infrastructure problems in his own state and all through the country and sure enough we had a tragedy in Minnesota and now infrastructure is one of the biggest issues that we face today. And that started last year. We were informed by Mike Huckabee.”

Hutuchison’s $500 donation to Huckabee came two months later, in November 2007.

Varner must have cringed when I told this story. The Seattle Times endorsed Hutchison this afternoon.

Howie P.S.: In other election news, "Vote "No" on I-1033... if you can find it."

Constantine: "Flip-flopper Hutchison wrong for King Co."

Chris Grygiel (Strange Bedfellows-seattlepi.com):

In a place where Barack Obama won 70 percent of last November's presidential vote, you'd think it would be relatively easy for a self-proclaimed liberal Democrat like Dow Constantine to win the county executive's race. But voters last year also approved a measure making county-wide offices officially non-partisan, which has added a new twist to the race between Constantine and Susan Hutchison.

Constantine

Constantine, a long-time Democratic office holder, finds himself trailing Hutchison in a contest that has in many ways become a referendum on the way government functions in the state's largest county. But while there won't be a 'D' or an 'R' next to the candidates' names on the November ballot, partisan politics have still played a big part in the campaign. Constantine separated himself from the pack of other Democrats seeking the job in the primary by aggressively challenging Hutchison, labeling the former KIRO-TV broadcaster an "extremely conservative Republican." Hutchison, who has ties to Republicans and conservative causes, shot back that Constantine was trying to distract voters from the budget mess at King County he helped create in his eight years on the County Council. Hutchison says county government has grown bloated and arrogant and only an outsider can change that.

In an interview with seattlepi.com last week at Seattle's Union Station, Constantine talked about why he believes his experience as a councilman and state lawmaker make him the right person to lead in a time of crisis. He spoke about the need for the region to stop viewing itself as many different cities but rather an integrated economy, why the county and the state need to change how they collect taxes and why unpaid furloughs for county workers are necessary to deal with next year's $56 million operating budget deficit. He also again challenged Hutchison, saying there's a "dramatic difference" in values between the two candidates, that Hutchison has flip-flopped on things like support for light rail and that she "opposes a woman's right to chose."

What follows is an edited transcript of the interview.

The next executive will take office facing the threat of severe flooding, a flu outbreak and big deficits stretching out for years. Beyond those crises, what should the county executive focus on to fix a county government that seems to be broken?

It is clear that these are unprecedented times. Both in the short term with the flood and flu, the budget deficit that needs to be closed, and over the long-term with the reforms that need to be put in place to put the county permanently on sound financial footing. It's very important at this point to have a level-headed, experienced local leader at the helm. The reason for that is the executive needs to bring this region together around a shared agenda. This is not a county issue, not a City of Seattle issue. This is 39 cities in King County and our neighbors in the central Puget Sound that need to agree on the answers to the question - what services will be provided, who will provide them and how will they be paid for? Of course, that necessarily involves the state as well, since they're able to assign responsibility for services.

I am in excellent position to be able to provide that leadership. It has been awhile since we've had a unified region. Frankly, not in my memory. But, with leadership in the City of Seattle and King County changing, there's an opportunity to get people on the same page around transit funding, around shared responsibility for services like jail space. And I'm proud to have the support of now nearly 50 non-partisan local elected officials across this county, who have worked with me, who don't always agree with me but recognize that I'm a person who has been willing and able to sit down, roll up his sleeves and help people create solutions. And, to have them be politically viable solutions so we can get through the legislative process. That doesn't happen by accident. That requires a combination of experience, and I think also a particular personality - one that's about conciliation and accommodation and finding common ground. I'm just thrilled that the people from the mayors of Shoreline, Bellevue, Issaquah and Enumclaw and Burien are all getting on board with the campaign and 'saying this is the person we want to have as our regional leader for the next four years.'

The County Council is trying to balance a 2010 budget that is $56 million in deficit. The current executive wants to have county workers take additional, unpaid furloughs next year as one way to deal with that. You've said those furloughs should be imposed if unions balk, as they so far have. A recent ruling suggests imposing furloughs would be difficult. What's your take on furloughs now?

First of all, I'm glad the executive has taken my recommendation to make further cuts to administrative expenses, at the council and the executive's office. I recommended a 10 percent further cut to the legislative branch and a 15 percent cut to the executive branch. He's come up with nearly that amount in his budget proposal - great. We need to do more. And, I think that, you know, the furloughs help us keep frontline services operating, they'll save about $6.5 million. We need to get our labor unions really focusing hard on what the consequences of not having a furlough will be. Which is more layoffs to their members and potentially significant reductions in frontline services for the people of King County. I don't think that's what anyone wants.

I think that I am in a very good position to be able to work with these organizations to find common ground. Because ultimately they came to government to provide services to the people. And if we're laying off another 50 or 60 or 70 on top of the 300 some jobs that are being eliminated this means less services available and more instability and insecurity for our workers. Furloughs are the right way to go, and I'm actively working on pushing that conversation forward.

Some people think the labor-management relationship in King County has become skewed in favor of labor. They think labor has the upper hand. Do you agree with that?

I think that because this is all in the context of labor law, a strong executive can negotiate a fair deal on behalf of the people in King County and that is what I'll do. We cannot, as management, cancel or reopen contracts. But we can sit down with workers - not just in collective bargaining - but throughout the year and throughout the term of a contract to work on how we can do business better. How can we deliver services cheaper, faster?

In order for the public to get more bang for the buck and the public employee has more security so next year we won't have another budget shortage requiring us to have more layoffs. I think there is a ton of room for that kind of conversation. But it all starts with folks recognizing the seriousness of the budget situation and my emphasis on this furlough, and the layoffs that will happen if we don't get it, is a very clear example of that. There's no reserve available to cover for that. There's no reasonable way to raise additional revenues in this recession. These workers need to help the county tighten it's belt and be able to deliver more for less.

One thing seems to divide the regions of the county is allocation of bus service, whether it's 40-40-20 (a requirement that says Seattle gets only 20 percent of new service, while the county's east and south sub-areas would each get 40 percent) or Seattle's free ride zone. One area is always complaining that they're not getting enough or somebody else is getting too much. With something like that, something that contentious, how do you get the county to come together?

This goes back to my answer to the first question. I'll give you some examples. The political leaders of this region are stuck fighting the last war and the rest of the region has moved on. The people of the region have moved on. They're living in one, big economy. They're living in one, big city made up of many urban centers. They're not living in Seattle versus everywhere else. They're not living in Seattle versus bedroom communities. There are dozens of urban centers that are effectively the real city in which we live. Our political institutions need to catch up to that reality.

For example, last week I called in Sen. Fred Jarrett, my rival from the primary election and a leader on issues around transit. I called in Councilmember Fred Butler from Issaquah, who has been a leader on regional transit. He helped put together the package, along with me and others, that went on the ballot last year. Brought Grant Degginger, the mayor of Bellevue, brought in Sally Clark from the Seattle City Council. I said, 'look, when we're having to make cuts here, the question is coming up when money comes back and service is to be deployed on the street, will we restore based on the old 40-40-20 formula, will it be restored based on where the cuts happened, what is the reality going to be?' We're headed for another showdown over 40-40-20, a completely unproductive one, that doesn't get to the underlying shared values of providing the most mobility for people and serving this new economy I just described and getting us out of this recession.

So we worked on language that we hope all quarters will be able to agree to on how cuts will happen, and also on the values that we will take up, on the priorities that we will consider at a future date when there's new transit funding available. My hope is that by not having to have this empty argument again about 40-40-20 we can unite the region, unite our legislators, go to Olympia and seek real solutions for transit, which include backing off on this overdependence on the sales tax, which is so volatile and is thus causing the problem we have right now.

You talk about the funding mechanisms for King County, without some change, if you're elected, during your term the county could have to do things like eliminate all funding for public health, parks, cuts to public safety programs. Do you agree with that assessment, might the county have to jettison everything but public safety programs?

I don't agree with that assessment. I think we have the opportunity to rather radically retool the way the county does business. With a change at the helm, I'll be able to accomplish that. That's why I'm running for executive. I, and others, have been pushing for performance-based governance, for example, not just redoing last year's budget, adjusted for inflation. Having strong mechanisms in place that force us to consistently reexamine how each service is being delivered, and ask the question, 'how could it be better delivered. Could this dollar be better spent?' That will save money in the sense that it will get more bang for the buck. As circumstances change, institutions will change to meet those new circumstances.

But it is unacceptable for us to abandon public health, to abandon parks, to abandon environmental protection, to abandon the responsibilities the county has to protect the quality of life of the nearly 2 million people who live here. That's why county government was constituted. Public safety is critically important, top priority. That doesn't mean we can do without protecting the public health. That would lead to a precipitous decline in our quality of life. So, working to make absolutely the most of each tax dollar - which is not a one-time budget scrubbing exercise, it's putting in place new mechanisms - which Fred Jarrett is going to help me do, which Professor Steve Page from the University of Washington, performance measures expert, is willing to do, people who are currently in government, who used to be in government, who've never been in government, are rallying to around to help with, to remake this government. And then, working with Ross Hunter, another one of my former rivals and now an ally in this campaign, on fixing the state's revenue system so we don't have this horrible reliance on regressive taxes like sales taxes and property taxes.

What do you see as the biggest difference between yourself and your rival, Susan Hutchison?

I have strong local government experience that will allow me to get the job done. And there's dramatic difference in values between me and Susan Hutchison. You can run down a list of them, but just think about: environment, where I've been a public champion on protection of the sound, salmon restoration, open spaces and on and on. She is aligned with the BIAW (the lobbying arm of the state's building industry), which is dedicated to the dismantling of our environmental protection laws. She even gave them money, gave their PAC money as they were attacking progressive, pro-environment candidates like the governor.

I am unquestionably a champion with a strong track record on transportation choices for the people of King County. I've worked my tail off to get Sound Transit opened, to get that next measure on the ballot and get it passed, on Metro, which I've already described how I'm working to preserve existing service but set the new model to modernize our transit system. We put in place that audit last year, by the council, to figure out how we can make Metro more efficient.

My opponent said we shouldn't have built light rail to the airport, you could just take a cab. Was first opposed to light rail entirely, and to the Eastside, now she says she supports light rail. Has maximum contributions from a number of people from a number of people who are suing to try to kill light rail and keep it coming from the Eastside. It is not enough to wake up one day, realize the region supports rail, and change your position from against it to for it. I have been there in the trenches, making rail happen. I am going to be, as county executive, pushing forward to make sure we have a complete transit system, that includes roads, bus, rail. I supported the roads and transit measure, which failed. And there are projects there, both old, failing infrastructure and improvements to clear up choke points, that have to be an early priority. We're going to have to go back and look for funding to work on our road system, in light of the failure of that measure.

I am unequivocally pro-choice, and I have a strong record in the Legislature, where I was the leader of the Judiciary Committee, and at the County Council, where we've been fighting to maintain reproductive health services in our public health clinics, for a woman's right to chose. My opponent opposes a woman's right to chose. She refused to answer the NARAL PAC questionnaire. She withdrew from the endorsement process from the woman's political caucus. I'm endorsed by NARAL, I'm the only candidate in this race recommended by the woman's political caucus. That's just the tip of the iceberg, but there is a huge gulf in the values of the two candidates in this race. Mine are the values of the people of King County.

Thank you for your time.

Thank you.

Howie P.S.: "Gun rights advocate endorses Hutchison" seems to support Dow's message about a "dramatic difference in values.".

"This election is a game-changer for politics in Washington State...Dow Constantine is the type of Seattle liberal who has dominated the recent political scene. But if Susan can defeat him in November, it will open doors for numerous candidates in 2010 and in 2013 who will change the direction our state is headed."

"Constantine, Hutchison on environmental issues" has this, for example:

On environmental issues, voters face a clear choice in this race between Dow Constantine and Susan Hutchison for King County executive.

She supports the expansion of a gravel mine on Maury Island; he opposes it. He says climate change is a top priority for the executive, connected to local policies from land use to transportation. She says global warming takes a back seat to public safety and budget issues.

Constantine: "Video shows Hutchison flip/flop on key issues" (with video)

Chris Grygiel (Strange Bedfellows-seattlepi.com), with video (01:20):

King County executive candidate Dow Constantine's campaign on Thursday said a video of an appearance last year by rival Susan Hutchison shows her praising conservative stances on light rail and government spending that she has softened during bid for office.

Hutchison spoke at a dinner for the conservative think tank the Washington Policy Center last October. She praised the center's book, The Policy Guide for Washington State, which decries light rail and calls for government spending restrictions beyond what Tim Eyman's Initiative 1033 is attempting to impose.

"I'd like to put in a plug for a book that you have on your tables," Hutchison said at the dinner, which featured conservative commentator Fred Barnes speaking about then-vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin. "I have read it cover to cover and it is one of the most extraordinary pieces of work about Washington State and the policies that make our government run."

On the campaign trail Hutchison, a former television broadcaster, has spoke favorably about light rail and has said she won't be voting for Eyman's initiative because it would restrict government revenue during a severe economic and budget crisis.

Constantine's campaign news release comes just a month before the election. Polls show Hutchison is slightly ahead of the County Council Chairman. Earlier this week the state's Public Disclosure Commission said it would investigate a claim of coordination between Constantine's campaign and an independent attack on Hutchison. Such coordination would be illegal.

Constantine spokesman Sandeep Kaushik said he was confident investigators would find that Constantine's campaign did nothing wrong. "The Hutchison campaign and their supporters are trying to throw stuff up against the wall to see if they can blow smoke where there's no fire," he said.

Howie P.S.: In other news on the King County Executive race, see "Dow’s Painted Pledge to the South Park Bridge" (Seattle Weekly) and "Disaster, illness, no time -- recipe for new county exec?" (seattlepi.com).

"King County executive endorsement interview" (video)

Seattle Times, video (73:58):

The candidates for King County executive, Dow Constantine and Susan Hutchison, met with The Seattle Times editorial board.

"Constantine, with cash edge, to open Bellevue HQ"

Seattle Times:

Dow Constantine is shopping for office space in Bellevue to open a headquarters for his King County executive campaign.

Constantine, a Seattleite, dominated the Emerald City in the primary. But his opponent Susan Hutchison owned the suburbs and rural county. See this Seattle Times map for details.

With a Bellevue HQ, it looks like Constantine is trying to increase his presence on the Eastside and make inroads into Hutchison territory. "It's important to demonstrate that Dow intends to represent all King County," said Sandeep Kaushik, Constantine's spokesman. "We're going to make a major effort to contact voters on the Eastside and Bellevue is an appropriate location to do it from."

Constantine got through the primary without an HQ. He made calls from space at a law office reported as an in-kind contribution. Staff also met in restaurants, Kaushik said.

Hutchison's campaign office is in Seattle. She doesn't plan to open an Eastside branch, said her spokesman Jordan McCarren. But she does plan to run phone banks from the Eastside, he said.

The most recent campaign-finance reports show that Constantine has a little more cash than Hutchison to throw around. Reports filed Thursday, which cover spending through August, reveal that Constantine has a slight edge in cash balance, with $141,000 to Hutchison's $114,000.

KING-5's first post-primary poll showed Hutchison favored by 47 percent of those surveyed, while 44 percent picked Constantine. The poll by SurveyUSA of 557 likely voters was conducted Sept. 1-3. The margin of error is 4.2 percent.

"Seattle metropolitan mag: does susan hutchison have the temperament for public office?"

Michael Hood:

Hot on the the line was Susan Hutchison,“From your questions, I believe you’re trying to hurt me!”

She's the Republican former teevee anchor and leading candidate for King County executive. It was a day after we interviewed her for a piece (Desperately Seeking Susan) in the new (August) Seattle Metropolitan magazine.

Hutchison, 55, looks good on paper and great in front of a mirror or a teevee camera, but substantively, and temperamentally, we found her, er, wanting. She couldn't answer policy questions, and wouldn't answer fundamental political questions, like "where do you stand on a woman's right to choose," or "who did you vote for president in 2008?"

She got visibly angry with some of our questions during the interview (the aforementioned on abortion being one) and called us at home later to clarify and reframe answers. She could be bat-her-big-eyes charming but also bristly, brittle, and defensive.

Because it was for a magazine, not a newspaper, she scolded us like an ex-girlfriend. “I thought you were going to be different!” she cried.

We talked to her in June, but space in the coffee table print magazine wouldn't allow for much of the interview. We'll be posting more, much more if she makes the November ballot (as widely expected) in the upcoming (Aug. 18) primary.

The Hutchison campaign has been able to control her media fairly well, to date. It's been a stream of press releases, and meet & greets- She's not been confronted with hard policy questions or real debate about the very knotty problems the County faces. She didn't return the questionnaire from the moving and shaking Downtown Seattle Association, certainly a potential ally for the conservative candidate.

She's made a mistake, though in alienating the local media: even the Seattle Times, a potential friend indeed, has had to fight tooth and nail for info and access.

Control slipped majorly Friday when court documents unsealed after action by the Times and others revealed that Hutchison lied to KIROTV bosses about being sick, then was spotted in Oregon on a canoe trip. She was fired a short time later after she had badmouthed the station's moral climate to the mother of a prospective intern, and confronted the station's general manager about his allegedly inappropriate relationship with an intern.

Here's the AP story.

Susie "my lips are sealed" Hutchison (with video) (Updated)

UPDATE: My partner (who prefers to remain anonymous) corrects me to say Susie never wanted the records released and Palin could also be considered a cougar.

Seattle PI and Seattle Times with video (02:36).

Howie P.S.: Judge releases records in her case against KIRO and now she says she can't comment and "defend herself." My advice to Susie would have been

"Take the 150K!" And don't go canoeing at Sunriver when you have called in sick, even if your hemorrhoids are feeling better!

If Caribou Barbie was a cougar...
Dominic Holden (The Stranger) delves deeper: "Deceptive, Delusional, Unpopular: A Portrait of Susan Hutchison." The AP story, Docs: Hutchison badmouthed, accused, lied" won't help her, either. KIRO-TV has a story that provides a few new, though minor, details and a quote from Larry Phillips.

KING 5 Poll: "Hutchison, Constantine headed for showdown"

KING 5:

With two weeks to go until votes are counted in the primary for King County Executive, it appears former TV news anchor Susan Hutchison will likely be facing off with King County Councilmember Dow Constantine, according to a new KING 5 News poll.

The poll, conducted last weekend by SurveyUSA, shows Hutchison would get 39 percent of the vote if the election were held today. That’s unchanged from a similar poll three weeks ago.

Constantine takes 13 percent of the vote, up one point from the last poll.

Here’s how other candidates ranked:

-Sen. Fred Jarrett - 8 percent

-Rep. Ross Hunter – 8 percent

-King Co. Councilmember Larry Phillips – 6 percent

-Stan Lippmann – 2 percent

-Alan Lobdell – 2 percent

-Goodspaceguy – 2 percent

Twenty percent of the 606 likely voters polled say they are still undecided, so the race for second could change dramatically.

Only the top two candidates in the primary will advance to November’s general election.

Hutchison has been the clear leader in the polls since announcing her candidacy, which political strategists say is not a surprise given her name recognition after years as a news anchor.

Hutchison lawsuit records

A judge is expected to rule on Friday whether to unseal the records of a discrimination lawsuit filed by Hutchison against her former employer, KIRO-TV.

In 2003, Hutchison claimed age and race discrimination when she was replaced on the anchor desk by a young, Asian woman. The Seattle Times requested to have those records released to provide a better picture of the candidate. Several other media outlets, including KING-TV and Northwest Cable News, have joined the request.

Hutchison is fighting the release, saying she’s doing so in part to protect the privacy rights of others who may file suit against their employers.

Published reports indicate there may be issues of whether Hutchison collected disability pay when she was able to work after she left KIRO-TV.

Hutchison’s attorney, Jon Rosen, says he plans to appeal if the ruling goes against Hutchison.

Susan Hutchison, the Downtown Seattle Association reports: "Did Not Return Questionnaire."

From the story in today's Seattle P-I, "Seattle's downtown biz community rates the candidates."

Howie P.S.: I'm starting to see a pattern here.

Seattle Times Knocks Hutchison---Endorses Jarrett, Hunter

Seattle PI (Strange Bedfellows):

The Seattle Times on Friday endorsed Eastsiders Fred Jarrett and Ross Hunter for King County executive in next month's primary.

In giving the nod to Jarrett, a Democratic state senator from Mercer Island, and Hunter, a Democratic state representative from Bellevue, the county's last remaining daily newspaper spurned Seattleites and current County Councilmen Dow Constantine and Larry Phillips. Fairview Fannie also took a swipe at the frontrunner in the race, Susan Hutchison.

Yes, voters know Susan Hutchison's name better from her many years as a news anchor on KIRO-TV, but name familiarity is no substitute for the skills needed to run a troubled government. Citizens know less about her views on complicated issues because she worked diligently during the campaign to minimize what voters learned about her.

"Hutchison - a partisan non-partisan?"

Neil Modie (Strange Bedfellows):

Susan Hutchison has never run for elective office as a Republican, but not for lack of trying.

In late 2005 and early 2006, the former KIRO TV news anchor traveled the state, ardently wooing state and local GOP leaders to seek their backing for what she hoped would be her campaign for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate.

In the end, she chose not to run, perhaps for multiple reasons. For one thing, many party officials felt she wasn't qualified to seek the office. For another, most GOP leaders and money had already lined up behind the far better-credentialed Mike McGavick, who became the nominee but lost to Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell.

That aborted non-candidacy was one of numerous occasions on which Hutchison, now running for the now nonpartisan office of King County executive, demonstrated her partisan Republican ties.

Yet in a TV interview over the weekend, Hutchison insisted once again, as she has on other occasions, that she has never been affiliated with a political party. This time it was on KING-5's "Up Front" program, which aired Sunday.

When asked whether she is a Republican, Hutchison replied, "You know, it's interesting how this issue keeps raising its head because this is a nonpartisan race, and I'm running because I'm a nonpartisan. I've never affiliated with a party; you know we don't register (to vote by party) in this state."

That brought a guffaw Monday from an influential Republican Party leader, who attended GOP meetings at which Hutchison sought party endorsements for her hoped-for Senate campaign in 2006. The official requested anonymity.

"She wanted to run and she was very partisan, and for her to say she is a nonpartisan is just ridiculous," the party leader said.

Members of the Reagan Wing, a right-wing faction of the party, begged Hutchison that year to become a candidate, but party movers and shakers showed scant enthusiasm for her.

The Republican official who asked for anonymity said it would be reasonable for Hutchison to argue that her GOP ties are a red herring now in her campaign for a nonpartisan office, but that for her to say she is a "nonpartisan" and has "never affiliated with a party" is not true.

Hutchison's campaign consultant is San Francisco-based Dresner Wickers & Associates, which on its Web site calls itself "the go-to political consulting firm for Republican candidates, ballot initiatives and major trade organizations."

The four Democratic elected officials running for county executive have been eager to expose Hutchison's Republican leanings because King County tilts strongly Democratic. A SurveyUSA poll done for KING-5 shows Hutchison leading her rivals by a wide margin, perhaps thanks in large part to her 20 years as a TV anchor.

Hutchison was one of the most prominent backers of a 2008 ballot measure that made King County elective offices nonpartisan. She admitted publicly last week that she probably wouldn't be running for county executive if it were still partisan.

Many Republicans backed the measure, arguing, as Hutchison has, that most county issues having to do with buses, sewers and the like aren't partisan in nature. Democrats labeled it a GOP scheme to sneak more Republicans into countywide offices by removing party labels from the ballot.

In January 2006, after party leaders poured cold water on Hutchison's hope of running for the Senate, the Republican State Committee met to elect a new party chairwoman, Diane Tebelius. Hutchison asked to address the committee afterward even though she wasn't a member.

Tebelius initially refused, GOP sources said, but relented at the insistence of some of the party's conservatives. Hutchison then spoke to the group privately, apparently to promote her prospects for a potential future candidacy.

Later the same year, Hutchison chaired the Republican Party's 11th Legislative District caucus at which it chose delegates to the party's state convention. She doesn't live in the 11th District but was invited to be a "guest chair" there, according to a party leader.

Hutchison has contributed thousands of dollars to Republican candidates and causes – including the 2004 Bush-Cheney campaign and the 2008 presidential campaign of Mike Huckabee -- and has never donated money to a Democratic candidate.

She gave $1,000 in 2005 to ChangePAC, the campaign fundraising arm of the Building Industry Association of Washington, or BIAW, the homebuilders' conservative, political hardball-playing Olympia lobby that spends heavily trying to elect conservative candidates. Dresner Wickers, Hutchison's campaign consultant, has done extensive work for the BIAW.

Hutchison received an endorsement Sunday in response to her "Up Front" appearance, from Dale Foreman of Wenatchee, a former state Republican chairman, state House Republican leader and the lead lawyer in the state GOP's failed attempt to overturn the 2004 election of Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire.

"Susan Hutchison has been a solid supporter of conservative candidates," Foreman wrote on the "Up Front" blog, "but she is thoughtful person and not just another political hack."

Howie P.S.: This prompts me to ask:

Susie, how else are misleading us about yourself?

Hutchison: 'I probably will vote against' Eyman spending initiative

From left, King County executive candidates Dow Constantine, Ross Hunter and Susan Hutchison participate in a debate sponsored by CityClub and The Seattle Times at Meydenbauer Center in Bellevue on Thursday.
Seattle PI:

Exec candidate also talks about the budget and why she won't discuss social issues--Judging from the frequency and the ferocity of the attacks against Susan Hutchison, you'd think she was a long-time elected official.

She's not. The former television broadcaster has never held public office, but now finds herself the frontrunner in the King County executive's race. Her four main opponents -- all elected Democrats who have served in government for years -- have slammed her, saying she's a stealth conservative candidate in a liberal county and that she has too often ducked a serious debate of the issues.

Hutchison, who does have Republican ties, dismisses such criticism as a smokescreen designed to obscure the problems the incumbents have created. She recently sat down with seattlepi.com to discuss the county's budget problems, why she avoids talking about divisive social issues like abortion and why she'll most likely vote against Tim Eyman's latest government spending initiative. What follows is an edited transcript of the interview.

As you know King County's looking at a $50 million operating budget deficit next year. Tim Eyman has an initiative (I-1033) on this fall's ballot that could make it much tougher for governments like King County going forward by requiring that taxes collected above a certain rate go to property tax relief. Current government officials say such a measure would tie their hands at a time when maximum flexibility is needed. Do you support Eyman's initiative?

The voters would like property tax relief, especially with the value of their properties going down. A lot of them think it's going to mean they are going to pay less taxes this year, but of course because of the structure of the property tax that's not going to happen, so there are a lot of people who are going to be upset about it.

So it will be interesting to see how the citizens react to that initiative. I have talked to a number of county mayors, cities large and small, they're very concerned about it. So not just at the county level, but at the city level, folks who depend on property tax to fund various services are very concerned because they feel that government has to provide services, many of which are promised to their citizens. And it's based on a certain amount of tax revenue.

And of course this initiative, came about because there's this sense that government has abused the privilege of taxation. We need to have enough money to provide services or there will be such severe cuts that people will regret it. But at the same time it's a bit of a pendulum swinging right now where people are fed up with the size of government. Not to mention the attitude and the arrogance that we've talked about at these forums. I've talked about it continually since I got into the race. So, most of the time these initiative votes are protest votes. People are trying to say to government, 'I've had enough.' And I think that if this initiative passes, that's what they're saying. Whether or not it's good policy, I defer to these very conscientious and responsible mayors of some of our smaller towns who also say, along with county government, that this will be a disaster for them. So I think our voters need to be very careful. So my promise to the voters is that we are going to cut waste, eliminate duplication, increase government efficiency, which of course will improve productivity of government. We're going to implement performance audits, so we make the right decisions. We're going to get our priorities straight and we're going to make government work for the people.

So will you be voting for or against the Eyman initiative?

You know I haven't looked at it enough, but I probably will vote against it. Not because I wouldn't love to have my property taxes go down, but I do think that there is a enough of a strain, a significant strain on county government right now, that's going to force us to get our act together, to live within our means, to do what our citizens want us to do.

None of the candidates for county exec want to raise taxes and they pretty much all say public safety is the number one priority. If you cut all public health and human safety general fund spending that only solves $41 million of your $50 million deficit problem. Doesn't the county pretty much have to stop providing public health and human services?

I want to correct, first of all, your statement that nobody wants to raise taxes. We've got four politicians who are running, some of which have continually raised taxes to pay for bigger and bigger government. One of the reasons why some people don't want a tax hike on the November ballot is they are afraid of the people who would come out and vote against it, who would then vote for me, because I've been the one out in front from the moment I stepped into this race, talking about our first line of defense against budget deficits is not raising taxes.

I am delighted that some of my opponents are now on the record of not wanting to raise taxes, because when we've won the executive's race and I'm working with those council members I will hold them to their word.

Would you, though, support giving voters a say in November about a possible tax hike?

I've always said, I've talked about a levy....what I have said is that human services are an important part of county government. And the people need to decide, with a human services levy, what their priorities are. And I always think it's best to give that opportunity to the voters. I support a human services levy. Now, that said, there's no question that there are human services that the county provides that no one else has stepped up to.

And these are very important, because in the long run they're good public policy. It's spending a nickel now to save a dollar tomorrow. When we have intervention programs that help young people stay out of jail, for example, that saves taxpayers in the long run a tremendous amount of money. So we want to focused on those solutions in the community that really do save us money in the long run, that help the most vulnerable, that provide the services to our disabled community, that give them a chance at a job. However we've got a lot of duplication in our human services agency. For example there are six agencies that provide services related to homelessness and drug addiction and abuse. Each one of those agencies has their own leadership and staff. If we consolidated that, we could combine those staff people and cut the size of bureaucracy and save money.

So that's what I mean about duplication. It's a terrific opportunity to say, 'we can consolidate these services so that we don't have such a huge overhead.' Those of us who have served in the human services community, as I have for almost 30 years on various boards, know that the most important thing is not to be spending money on overhead. We want to get it to the programs and the people. I have a good perspective on that and I look forward to being able to do that.

		Joshua Trujillo / seattlepi.com
	From left, King County executive candidates Ross Hunter, Susan Hutchison and Fred Jarrett answer a question during a debate at Meydenbauer Center in Bellevue on Thursday.

One problem the county has is the state keeps mandating that it provide things to people that they want, but they don't provide any money for these things. If you're elected county executive, who is the first person you'd call in state government and what would you talk about?

I've gone to Olympia twice since I announced that I was running, and I've met with elected officials there. I paid a courtesy call to the governor, and we had a terrific discussion about issues that were related to both state and county government. And I think at the state level, what you want to do is talk to the people who are working on those specific issues.

My idea of leadership is to bring together the best talent with the most experience. And I keep saying everyone is going to have a seat at the table, because we have to get a better dialogue going between all the people who are affected by these issues. And I think that's been sorely lacking in county government. We will tap into the best minds and hearts - when you're talking human services you need minds and hearts - at the state level. And we'll also bring together the folks who actually provide those services and solve the problem.

The county executive's race is nonpartisan. But your opponents, all proud Democrats, have called you an arch Republican with values out of step for a county that almost always votes Democratic. Why won't you tell voters your views on things like abortion or teaching evolution in schools?

First of all, the social issues are not part of the executive's race. And I want to stay focused on those things that are very important for the executive to be dealing with. As I've said about abortion - the whole choice/life debate, and I've been very clear about this - it is not relevant to the King County executive's race. It's the most divisive issue in America today. There are strong opinions on both sides. I am not here to divide people. I'm hear to bring people together so we can solve our complex problems in the county. I think as soon as you get into these very divisive issues, they become overwhelming to certain people for whom they're very important. We want to get focus back on solving problems we can solve, at the county level.

Now on the evolution in schools, I run a foundation that funds science. I am a pro-science individual. And I would say that, again, these issues are just red herrings. It's silly.

I would love to talk science with any of my opponents who have criticized me. I spend a lot of time dealing with science and in fact fund the inquiry science program in Seattle Public Schools for middle school and high school. So, I've been deeply involved in science education and funding it through the Alliance for Education.

One of the things you talk about, proudly, is helping the Seattle Symphony get out of financial trouble. One of the ways you did that was by increasing the donor base. You got more money in there to help their problems. In some respects, the county is in a similar situation, why is the way you helped the symphony out - increasing the amount of revenue coming in - not the right way to go for the county?

If only we had donors who wanted to donate to government.

Actually, that was one means of solving the problem. When we built the symphony hall, a lot of people in the community saw that and had a vision for it and got on board and felt that was very important. We hadn't tapped into those sources in many years, so we went to them and said, 'you know, we need you to help us out.'

But that was just one group of people. We had to involve all the stakeholders. We had to get involved with the city. I asked Mayor Nickels, one on one. I said, 'we need your leadership. You own Benaroya Hall and we're your only tenant. We have to help this institution survive.'

There had been a bond revaluation. And so we moved quickly to make sure that that affected the symphony in a positive way. And I'm grateful to the mayor for stepping up. We worked with corporations as well. Because corporations understand how the arts institutions in this city affect their ability to hire, affect the quality of life, affect revenues in the city. So it's a total win for people support our culture institutions throughout the region because of the benefits it brings to tax revenues through commerce.

But we had other problems. We had labor/management problems. We had staff problems. We needed a new leadership at the staff level which required us hiring a new executive director...but we also worked with the stakeholders who are our patrons. When you're talking about bringing people together this is what we did at the symphony. We balanced the budget the first year, and we balanced the budget the second year. It helped to stabilize that institution and increase the morale of everybody associated and the reputation of the place.

I expect after a few years of leadership at the county there's going to be a new hope in the county and we're going to increase tax revenues by making it a better place to do business. It's through people having jobs and spending money that we get the tax revenues that fuel our services at the county level. That's what we've got to do. So this attitude, this disdain for business large and small that people feel in the county when they're trying to do business is unacceptable. That's going to change...we're going to be a county open for business.

If you're elected, you're going to have to have some tough conversations with the unions. As contracts are renegotiated they are going to have to be a part of fixing the problem. Organized labor is still a big part of King County. What would you say to people in the labor community who may be suspicious of you. What can the labor unions who work with King County expect from you?

From the time I stepped into the race I began meeting with labor leaders. I've probably met with six unions that have contracts with the county. And I sat for an interview with the King County Labor Council. I am the only person running who has been a member of a union, for 25 years. I've been on strike. I understand union issues, I would contend, better than anyone running for office. I have reached out to our unions and said 'we have to partner.' We've got an economic reality that we've got to deal with. And it's going to cost jobs, unions don't want to lose jobs. And I said it's going to cost jobs unless we can adjust to the economic reality that we're in. As you know the county employees have very good wage and benefits packages. And many people are astounded to realize that that benefits package - with that medical benefit where they don't pay any premiums - that was negotiated during the economic meltdown that we were all experiencing last year. It was signed in March of '09.

Now I've talked to the unions about it and I've heard their point of view. I appreciate the fact that union leadership's job is to the best they can for their membership. I put the blame squarely on the shoulders of the executive for having not demanded that the unions respond as everyone else was responding in our economic crisis. We have to tighten our belts, we have to live within a new reality, otherwise we're going to lose jobs, we're going to hurt our economy. So I've met with these union leaders and asked for their help...quite frankly our union leadership is very sharp, very smart and very profession. I assured them that we would have labor in our administration and I look forward to working with them.

Another thing your opponents rapped you for was missing many of the early campaign forums. Why did you miss so many of those debates and forums when this race started?

I put my hat in the ring in mid April. I had basically six weeks to get a campaign up and running. I'm not a professional politician - I didn't have a fundraising Rolodex, I didn't have a Web site. I didn't have a campaign staff. I needed to meet with many people in the county about the issues that mattered to the people.

And so my dedication for those six weeks was getting our campaign up and running. In that time I did a number of things. I did a number of candidate issues, I did a few media interviews, I spoke, I gave a few keynote addresses, I emceed an event that was almost a 1,000 strong. I felt like I was everywhere. I just didn't happen to be able to attend one of the forums because I had another commitment with Children's Hospital, a breakfast that I had committed to and they were counting on me for. I missed the other breakfast, which was a forum, and that was about a week after I stepped into the campaign.

When we filed, which was around June 5 I believe, I was off and running. I've attended eight forums in the last five weeks. And let me say this about the forums. For me, the forums are a place where we are birds on a wire, and we talk and we talk and we fill and hour and a half or two hours. I'm sitting in front of people who represent a wealth of experience and knowledge. I would love to flip the tables and be the listener. I want to hear their issues and their concerns. This is one of the reasons I've spent so much time meeting with so many people one on one to try do understand the broad picture.

I'm a journalist, I'm a listener, I'm an interviewer, that's what I know how to do. You may hear an issue portrayed one way, but it's not until you talk to all the stakeholders that you really understand the broad reasons why people act and do and want the things that they want.

So I've been working really hard since I stepped into this race to get to know the issues. I think it shows. I think it shows in my answers in the forums. As you know I've been out in front on a lot of things. I demanded a hiring freeze, I said it was the first thing I would do when I stepped into office in January. This week the county government is going to implement a hiring freeze - finally. What took them so long? It's the first thing business does.

When you get into economic trouble in business you implement a hiring freeze. That gives time to analyze your situation, regroup, figure out what you're going to do. Then you cut spending. So I've advocated for cutting the council and executive offices. That can be done very easily and very quickly. Streamline those offices. Nothing was done. Well now they're announcing they are going to make some cuts. I don't know how big those cuts are going to be, but it's a start.

I can understand, it's the hardest thing to do is to cut personnel. It's painful, it hurts. So I can understand that they've avoided it and why last year the whole budget deficit was borne on the shoulders of the sheriff's department and the prosecutor's office and the courts. But they've been cut substantially and it's time to look at the rest of county government.

It's going to be a hard time, but everybody's hurting. There are so many people who are unemployed, who've taken cuts in pay, who've taken unpaid vacations. It's a very hard time for all of us, and government is part of that, and until they take the steps that are needed citizens are going to resent the fact that they're on a steak diet when the rest of us are on meatloaf.

Last question. You were a longtime broadcast journalist. You talked to a lot of people. Who are some of the people who most impressed you and what did you learn in you years in front of the camera that would help you run the county?

You know, I met a lot of celebrities through the year. A lot of folks who are impacting our culture. I look back, and there's a wealth of wisdom in people who have lasted a lifetime. Our older citizens who are wise and have lived through a lot. Let me just throw out a few. One was Peter Ueberroth. Remember, he came in and turned around the L.A. Olympics. He was an amazing guy. Had private industry experience and he came to KIRO TV back around that time and I was fascinated by what leadership was required in order to take a mammoth organization like the Olympics and turn it around so that it was viable, it didn't lose money, it satisfied its mission and so forth. He was a real impressive guy.

You know I've met a lot of political leaders through the years. You know I've interviewed Jimmy Carter and Laura Bush and Ronald Reagan and some others who aren't political leaders but they've certainly been involved in the political scene, like even Billy Graham. And having that privilege it's been amazing to see how they bring to a time in history, a certain know how and knowledge of the needs of our society. And I thing I have taken away little bits and pieces from each one of them. Rev. (Samuel) McKinney of Mount Zion Baptist Church and I had a discussion at one of the political conventions I attended back in 80s, it might have been the '88 Democratic Convention. And he said, 'politics is about compromise. It's about taking two different points of view and finding the compromise position between them.' And then he added, as only a reverend can, 'but you cannot compromise with evil.' And I think that's a wise word. Because there are lots public policy positions we can find common ground on. And then there are some things in our society that we have to fight. And so that was, to me, I remember those words so very well so long ago, over twenty years ago, and those were important to me.

Thank you for your time.

Howie P.S.: Susie is pretty slick. She sounds like a cross between Tim Hill and Barack Obama here. Steve Zemke takes a look at Hutchison's political contributions over the last few years and finds a distinctly partisan trend. Another local election, another story: "Nickels is down, but his opponents aren't moving up" (Joel Connelly).

Howie comments...on "The Passion of Joel" (Connelly)

My comment on Goldy's post, "The Passion of the Joel":

In the fashion of many here, let me preface my own comment by saying many of you seem to be morons. My comment is that from the point of view of political strategy, I think it would be immensely helpful if there was more discussion in the media and blogosphere of Susie’s positions on the issues, and/or her unwillingness to share them with us.

Connelly: Don't drag Hutchison "through the mud"

Joel Connelly takes on "some" liberal bloggers that would be (Goldy and Erica Barnett) for making an issue of her religious practices and accuses the "militant secularists" of sexism, name-calling, guilt by association, broad-brush smears and demeaning sarcasm. Joel's advice to the anti-Hutchison campaigners:

Nor should Hutchison get dragged through the mud over a discrimination suit -- later settled -- that she filed against KIRO-TV after it demoted her and a younger person was brought in to host the evening news.

Instead, we should ask a question she didn't answer at Thursday's debate: Will Hutchison try to change (read dismantle) King County's urban growth boundaries? Will the Building Industry Association of Washington find in her a willing ally? Hutchison has excoriated the county's Critical Areas ordinance as a scourge on rural residents. "It tells citizens who own land how they will use it," she told a Bellevue debate on Thursday.

Howie P.S.: As one who has publicly chided the local media (not Joel!) for their under-reporting on this race, I feel some responsibility to chime in here: I think Joel's advice is wise. There is plenty to talk about Susan on the secular issues. In Goldy's defense, he did post "Susan Hutchison: “I oppose legal abortion” --a legitimate political issue, but not one central to the King County Executive job, as far as I can tell. For evidence of Goldy's interest in Hutchison's religous views, see "Is Susan Hutchison a “wedge” candidate?"