Saturday, January 19, 2008

"Clinton and Obama seek to break deadlock in Nevada"

Guardian (UK):
The Democrats' increasingly bitter and divisive race for the White House comes to a head in the Nevada caucuses today amid a welter of disputes about unions, management styles, and the legacy of Ronald Reagan.
After Barack Obama's win in Iowa, and Hillary Clinton's in New Hampshire, today's caucuses are seen as a potential tie breaker. A win today could provide crucial momentum before nearly two dozen states hold their primaries on February 5.

The vote is also seen as a test of the emerging influence of Nevada's Latino community, which makes up more than 20% of the population, as well as the organising ability of its unions.

An opinion poll published in yesterday's Las Vegas Review-Journal showed Clinton maintaining a comfortable lead over her rivals with 41% of the vote. Obama was on 32%, and John Edwards on 14%, undercutting his claims to be fighting a three-person race.

However, caucuses, which require attending a meeting at a specific location, are notoriously difficult to predict. That is especially the case in Nevada, which ordinarily allows voters to cast their ballots at a grocery store within a two-week period.

Obama may have gained an edge this week after a judge permitted Nevada to allow caucuses at nine casinos on Las Vegas gambling strip, which will make it easier for hotel and casino workers to participate. The workers' union has endorsed Obama.

The close contest - and the high stakes involved - have led to increasingly angry exchanges between Obama and Clinton and their supporters, barely four days after both candidates pronounced a formal truce.

In the latest episode, Obama has been under attack from Clinton and Edwards for seeming to praise Ronald Reagan. "I think it's fair to say the Republicans were the party of ideas for a pretty long chunk of time, the last 10 or 15 years, in the sense that they were challenging conventional wisdom," Obama remarked.

In her final campaign rally before this morning's caucus in the nearby town of Henderson, Clinton reacted as if to a heresy. "One of my opponents said today that he thinks the Republican party is the party of ideas," she sneered. "Well I would agree with that to the extent that they are the party of bad ideas."

Obama was more relaxed in his last rally at a university campus in Las Vegas, offering a few jokes along with his now familiar stump speech. But he also tried to insulate himself from further damage after he admitted in a debate that his biggest weakness was his inability to keep track of paperwork. "I'm sorry, I thought when you said what's your biggest weakness you meant what's your biggest weakness. I didn't understand the question."

The two camps also traded accusations of dirty tricks. Earlier yesterday, Clinton suggested that the Culinary Workers, the main union supporting Obama, were putting pressure on their members to support him. Bill Clinton, who met with workers at the Bellagio casino, has also suggested that culinary union members are being told they must caucus for Obama.

The union has released a Spanish language radio ad accusing Clinton of trying to disenfranchise hotel workers. "Hillary Clinton does not respect our people," the ad says. "Hillary Clinton is shameless."

Today's caucuses could well provoke a showdown between the major components of the Democratic power base in Nevada: the unions, which support Obama, and the party's leadership, which has come out for Clinton.

Yesterday's opinion poll also suggests that Clinton has solid support from Latino voters who favoured her by 50% to 29% over Obama in the poll of likely caucus goers by the Mason-Dixon polling group. However, in what may be an augury for South Carolina's contest next week, Obama dominated among African American voters. He had 65% support compared to 18% for Clinton. However, the community is smaller presence in the state than Latinos.

Obama had a slimmer lead among union households over Clinton, just 7%, despite his support from the state's powerful culinary unions.

On the Republican side, the caucuses have been overshadowed by today's primary in South Carolina. Mitt Romney has been the only candidate to campaign here in the run-up to the vote. That effort and the sizeable Mormon population of Nevada should work in his favour. Romney had a 15 point lead over John McCain, his nearest challenger, in the Review Journal poll.

But even before the first votes were cast, the contest has already begun to move beyond Nevada. John Edwards will not even be in the state today - he left on Friday morning to campaign in Oklahoma. Clinton has a rally scheduled in Missouri while Obama heads south to Georgia.
Howie P.S.: Marc Cooper has posted "Nevada: Barack Bets On Record Turnout" on Huffington Post. Guardian (UK) also has "Obama's supporting act turns into star attraction," about Michelle Obama. RAW STORY posts "MSNBC: Is Obama being punished for telling it straight?" (with video). Greg Sargent (TPM Election Central) posts "Now Bill Himself Goes After Obama Over Reagan Interview." And the WaPo political blog, The Trail, has "Obama Camp Pushes Back On 'Rookie' Ad."

I wonder, will we ever see a debate between Bill, Michelle and Elizabeth?

"impeachment res. 8016- olympia, wa" (video)


1petergray2, video (09:57):
res. 8016 introduced by eric oemig in washington legislative hearings- 17 jan. 08
Howie P.S.: Pam Roach accuses the proponents of "partisanship" and displays a photograph of her son who is serving in the U.S. military. She says "what you are doing is a disgrace" and promises to file an ethics complaint against Sen. Oemig. Sen. Oemig responds and explains why he supports the legislation.

Friday, January 18, 2008

"Experience: Obama vs. Hillary" (video)

CNN, video (04:55):
Democratic hopeful Barack Obama highlights the differences between him and campaign rival Hillary Clinton.

"Clinton, Obama rally crowds in Elko"

Reno Gazette-Journal:
A combined 2,700 people turned out to see Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Elko Friday afternoon, including many still trying to make up their minds on whom to caucus for Saturday.
There are about 5,000 Elko County Democrats. So, why are the two candidates pushing so hard?

Flora Boyer, Elko Democratic Central Committee treasurer, said she believes the contest between the two for a first-place showing in Nevada will be so close that votes in Elko could make the difference.

“It’s that close,” she said. ”We are going to have a say in the state. We have been knocking them dead in registering more Democrats than Republicans.”

About 1,000 people squeezed into the Elko Indian Colony gymnasium to see Clinton. For many, it was their first look at Clinton in person, as she made her first visit to the city.

About 1,700 people turned out for Obama’s speech. Several hundred people left Clinton’s speech early, dozens of cars formed a caravan to drive over to the Elko High School gymnasium to hear Obama.

It was Obama’s second visit to Elko and he let the crowd know it.

Mary Ray, a Great Basin College professor, and her husband Michael, another professor, said the two candidates hold similar views on the economy, health care, the war and education.

But they’re Obama supporters. “Barack is more inspirational,” Michael Ray said.

”He’ll get a higher number of votes from Republicans,” Mary Ray said. “We need every vote.”

Jill List, a registered nurse and an independent voter, said she likes them both. “We just came from Hillary. She’s pretty dynamic when you sit and listen to her. I want to hear what Obama has to say and then hopefully I’ll make up my mind.”

"Clinton claims union intimidation by Obama backers"

Newsday:
ELKO, Nev.--Hillary Rodham Clinton spent her final day of campaigning in Nevada launching blistering attacks on Barack Obama, culminating in a charge that his most powerful union backer is intimidating members who support her.
Speaking to supporters in this mile-high mining town, Clinton accused Obama's organizers from the 60,000-member Culinary Workers Union Local 226 of seeking to keep those in the union who support her from participating in Saturday's caucuses.

"We know there are some unions in the South who are telling people who to caucus for and if they're not going to caucus for who they choose, don't come at all," said Clinton, who offered no direct evidence. She cited press accounts, a phone-in caller to a local radio show, blogs and "anecdotes" from her campaign workers.

"I'm afraid some people may feel that they can't come or can't support the candidate of their choice," said Clinton, who challenged Obama and John Edwards to pledge their union supporters wouldn't intimidate members. "I don't think that's right, I don't think that's the American way."

"There's absolutely no evidence," said union spokesman Chris Bohner, citing a Las Vegas Sun newspaper investigation that found no proof of coercion. "This is a tactic that many anti-union companies use against unions to baselessly accuse them of intimidation."

Clinton also intensified her criticism of the caucus process itself, claiming that nine union-stronghold caucus sites in casinos on the Las Vegas strip are unfairly weighted to give Obama an advantage.

The union, which endorsed Obama hours after Clinton won the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary, is a major asset for Obama because it can flood casino-based polling sites with his supporters.

Clinton's surrogates sued unsuccessfully to halt balloting, charging the "at-large" casino sites violated the one-person, one-vote rule by apportioning too many delegates to union strongholds.

For his part, Obama has accused Clinton of distorting his Social Security proposals in a flier to Nevada Democrats.

As Clinton and Obama traded accusations, their operatives intensified efforts to mobilize supporters, particularly Hispanics, to attend the caucuses. Both sides admit it's impossible to predict a winner.

"Caucuses are notoriously hard to predict and turnout is the big unknown, the biggest wild card," said Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson.

No caucus has ever been quite as unpredictable as Nevada's: In 2004, only 9,000 Democrats participated. Estimates this year range from 20,000 to 120,000.

Nevada is a vital, if not essential, prize for both candidates. An Obama win would blunt Clinton's upset victory in New Hampshire and help erode her leads in big Feb. 5 states, especially neighboring California.

A Clinton victory would salve the pain of a possible loss next week in South Carolina, where Obama enjoys a double-digit lead buoyed by overwhelming support among black voters.

Both campaigns are fighting hard in Nevada, though neither has invested the tens of millions poured into the first two contests, say sources in both camps.

Clinton leads Obama, 41 percent to 32 percent, according to a poll this week of likely caucusgoers by the Las Vegas Review Journal. She has an advantage over Obama among Hispanics, women and older Nevadans.

That advantage might be erased by union muscle. Clinton strategist Mark Penn said the culinary workers' endorsement gives Obama a 5-point bump not captured by polling.
Howie P.S.: This article in the Rolling Stone explores the charges by the Clinton campaign.

"John Edwards Campaigns in LA"

Mona Gable (Huffington Post):
Anyone who thinks John Edwards is a loser and should take his marbles and go back to North Carolina apparently was not at the Edwards' rally in downtown Los Angeles on Thursday.
Is this why the campaign played "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet" during the pre-rally warm-up?

It seems a lot of voters here have the impression, however misguided and dumb, that the guy's a serious candidate for president. Who knew? And that the race for the Democratic nomination isn't over. Who are these starry-eyed dreamers anyway? Haven't they been following the news, with its all-Hillary, all-Barack coverage all the time?

But back to the rally, which took place downtown at the Southern California Public Service Workers' headquarters. In a parking lot. Yes, it couldn't have been less glamorous, but that was the point. As Jason Gomez, a Latino sanitation worker and former Teamsters member in his 30s said of Edwards, "So many of the candidates don't seem like they're representing the people. He's the people's guy. He's the man for me."

"What I like about John Edwards is he has a union background from the womb to the tomb," Clara Brisco, a middle-aged African-American woman and longterm care worker told me. Brisco was waving an "Edwards for President" sign. And she'd driven all the way from her home in Long Beach to hear him speak. "He's all over my house," she laughed of his campaign signs.

More than 1000 supporters stood in the warm noonday sun waiting for Edwards, who arrived from a campaign event in Nevada nearly 40 minutes late. When he did breeze in, smiling his million-dollar smile, stopping to shake hands as he pushed toward the stage, they applauded and cheered. It was truly an Edwards kind of crowd: home health care workers, carpenters and electricians, working families and elderly people. Many came in jeans and T-shirts. About the only people in suits were LA City Councilman Richard Alarcon and LA City Councilwoman Janice Hahn.

For Edwards it was the perfect stage in which to deliver his hard-driving populist message. A parking lot in the shadow of some of the city's biggest corporations.

Like his audience, Edwards dressed down for the occasion in dark blue shirt and jeans. If you watched the Nevada debate, he emphasized much of what he said there. His humble beginnings as the son of a mill worker. The sacrifices of his father so he could attend college. Corporate greed. The subprime mortgage crisis. The 47 million Americans without health insurance. His vow to pull the troops out of Iraq his first year as president. The little girl named Natalie who needed a liver transplant but died because her father's insurance company wouldn't cover it.

And, of course, his credentials as the "change" candidate.

Hmm. I guess we're going to be hearing that word a lot before Super Tuesday.

"There's only one candidate who's never taken a dime from a special interest lobbyist or a PAC," said Edwards to big applause.

And, really, they did seem wild about him. Even Shelli Sloan, who got so fed up with the Democrats eight years ago that she became an Independent. "He has so much more energy than Obama or Clinton," gushed the 46-year-old café owner.

So. Why, I kept thinking the whole time I was listening to Edwards, is he not winning more labor endorsements? If he's fighting for the middle-class, why aren't they fighting for him? This seems the fundamental paradox of his candidacy. He didn't get the Culinary Workers in Nevada. Then this week in Los Angeles he lost another prized endorsement: the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, a group that represents more than 800,000 workers. They also went for Obama, even though Edwards pitched in during their hotel strike a few years ago.

What gives? Is it that key labor organizations have given up on him? That they want a sure thing? That they prefer Obama's message of unity to Edwards' message of taking no prisoners? That they just really want to elect the nation's first black president?

As for Hillary, even as Edwards was speaking, she was just across the freeway. Trying to rack up another major endorsement: the Los Angeles Times.

But Edwards isn't giving up. "I am an underdog campaign, but this is where you come in," he said in closing, his voice rising. "You can help us here in California, help a grassroots movement that spreads across this state, that spreads across this country. When that tidal wave of change is finished, we will be able to look our children in eye and say, 'We did for our you what our parents did for us.'"

And with that it was over, and Edwards began signing autographs and people crowded the stage, snapping photos of him on their cell phones.

"You're going to win, John!" a man shouted out.

"Hillary Opens Up To Tyra About Adultery" (with video)

Huffington Post, with video (02:04):
Excerpts of Hillary Clinton's taped interview with Tyra Banks were released earlier this week, but the interview airs today on Tyra's show. In the interview, Hillary discusses, among other things, adultery. She tells Tyra that she had to "dig down hard" to get over the Monica Lewinsky affair of ten years ago, but that she "never doubted Bill's love" or her "faith and commitment" to Chelsea and their extended family.

Other takeaways: she admits to being embarrassed by the scandal but says, "I was just praying so hard and thinking so hard about what's right to do that I couldn't get anything else interfere with that. The momentary feelings — you know, you're mad, you're really upset, you're disappointed, all of that goes through your mind — but I have found you really shouldn't make decisions in the heat of those moments."

And though scorned women come up to her everywhere asking for advice "all the time," she counsels: "no one story is the same as any other story...what I can tell you is that you must be true to yourself."

Watch:

"MARK PENN STARTS SPINNING A CLINTON LOSS IN NEVADA"

Ari Melber (The Nation):
Clinton Campaign strategist Mark Penn has begun spinning Hillary Clinton's potential loss in this weekend's Nevada's caucus, contending that an Obama victory would be essentially illegitimate.

In an unusual memo sent to reporters on Friday evening, Penn bemoans Obama's local labor support and emphasizes that two recent polls show Clinton ahead, so the "easy explanation" for an Obama victory would be his union support. This analysis of Obama's (potentially) winning coalition is presented as some sort of indictment, picking up on Bill Clinton's complaints that local party rules allow wide participation in the caucus.

2008-01-19-Picture4.png

Yet even given Penn's stormy history with labor and the low "standards" of campaign spin, this attack is particularly desperate. Democratic candidates are supposed to win over labor voters. In fact, if Obama -- or any candidate -- wins Nevada on the strength of union voters, it would validate his appeals to the huge labor electorate on Super Tuesday. Meanwhile, Nevada's tiny caucus universe cannot be reliably surveyed, (as I've explained before), so these polls are unlikely to reflect Saturday's turnout. Of course, Mark Penn knows that. "Turnout is uncertain since the last election saw only 9,000 voters come out," he notes in the memo. And that's exactly why he's already spinning a loss, even as he emphasizes that Clinton is "ahead 9 points."

Most political reporters erred by treating the New Hampshire primary as a story about polls, not people. Mark Penn is betting they'll repeat the same mistake when interpreting the Nevada results.

"Obama’s Closing Argument to Nevada Voters"

The Caucus, NY Times political blog:
RENO, Nev. – Senator Barack Obama sharply criticized Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton on the eve of the Nevada caucuses, declaring: “The American people don’t want a president whose plans change with the politics of the moment.”

At a rally on the campus of the University of Nevada here, Mr. Obama questioned whether his leading rival was being straightforward with voters. He raised an example of her economic stimulus plan, saying she had followed his lead by adding a tax rebate to jumpstart the economy.

“Senator Clinton has said she is ready to lead from Day 1,” Mr. Obama said. “But it’s important on Day 1 to get it right, whether you’re talking about war or you’re talking about economic proposals.”

As he made his closing argument to Nevada voters, Mr. Obama spent an unusual amount of time dwelling on Mrs. Clinton. He repeatedly invoked her by name, reflecting a sense by some Democrats here – and worry among his own advisers – that she holds an advantage going into the caucuses on Saturday.

“Part of my job in this race is to restore people’s sense that you say what you mean and you mean what you say,” Mr. Obama said. “That’s why I’m running.”

A poll in the Las Vegas Review-Journal on Friday showed that Mrs. Clinton was leading Mr. Obama 41 percent to 32 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

“I haven’t been thrown off the island yet,” Mr. Obama said.

"Edwards Appeals for Labor Support"

The Caucus, NY Times political blog:
LAS VEGAS – Standing in the bed of a white pickup truck parked in a strip mall, John Edwards on Friday asked for support from Nevada union members in Saturday’s caucuses.

Even if their unions have endorsed Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama.

“If you hear the sound of my voice, and if you are a union member in the state of Nevada, I am asking you to caucus for me,” Mr. Edwards said, adding, “no matter whatever your political leadership is telling you to do.”

He has been endorsed by the steelworkers, carpenters, communication workers and transport workers in the state, who have dominated the attendance at his campaign events in Nevada this week. But he failed to pick up the key endorsement of the influential culinary workers union and the Service Employees International Union in Nevada, who have supported Mr. Obama.

Mr. Edwards was introduced by James Denton, whose character on “Desperate Housewives” works as a plumber. He’s been appearing with Mr. Edwards on the campaign trail for weeks. With his show stalled by the writers’ strike in Hollywood, Mr. Denton today described himself as “a union member who’s out of work.”

After campaigning in Nevada for the last few days, Mr. Edwards is leaving Friday afternoon and flying to Oklahoma and Missouri, two states whose primary contests are held on Feb. 5. On Saturday, he travels to South Carolina, where he will campaign heavily until the Democratic primary on Jan. 26.

"Waxman To Hold Hearing On Missing White House E-Mails"

BarbinMD, front-paged on Kos:
Rep. Henry Waxman has announced that he is scheduling a hearing on February 15th in light of:

A White House chart indicates no e-mail was archived on 473 days for various units of the Executive Office of the President, a House committee chairman says. [...]

There are 16 days of no archived e-mails from Sept. 12, 2003, to May 23, 2005, for the office of Vice President Dick Cheney, according to Waxman's letter announcing the hearing. There are a dozen days of no archived e-mails for the White House Office inside the EOP, starting Dec. 17, 2003, and ending on Feb. 8, 2004, Waxman's letter added. It seems that Rep. Waxman would like an explanation for the remarks made yesterday by White House spokesman Tony Fratto:

MR. FRATTO: I think our review of this...I think to the best of what all the analysis we've been able to do, we have absolutely no reason to believe that any emails are missing...we have no reason to believe that any email at all are missing.

Q So where are they?

MR. FRATTO: Where are what?

And just a suggestion here, but instead of months of sternly worded letters, how about Waxman just cuts to chase and issues the subpoenas now...and then enforces them.

NEVADA UPDATE III

"Obama ratchets up pressure over Clinton's senate record" (Guardian UK).

"Clinton plays gaming card against Obama" (LA Times).

"Endorsement: Obama embodies party’s vision" (Reno Gazette-Journal).

"Election 2008: Previewing the Nevada Caucuses" (WaPo).

"Democrats toughen up" (Las Vegas Sun).

"The Nevada expectations game" (First Read-MSNBC).

"Edwards message: Louder this time" (Las Vegas Sun).

"Washington starts up online voter registration"

Seattle P-I:
Would-be voters in the state now can seek to enter their names on the voter rolls over the Internet, with Washington last week joining Arizona as the only states to offer online voter registration.

"This is a dramatic step forward," Secretary of State Sam Reed said.

Reed, the state's chief elections officer, pushed the Legislature to approve a bill allowing online registration, and the measure was approved in the 2007 session.

"People do so much business now online that this is kind of a normal way many people want to transact their business, including with government and voter registration -- and this is particularly true with young people," Reed said.

"And that is our big challenge: to get this younger generation registered.

"So I think this is going to be very, very helpful in making it possible to get more people in the system by getting them registered."

In its first three days, the system recorded 1,634 online applications, Reed said.

Reed's initial attempt to win legislative approval of online registration failed in 2006. Support from lobbyists representing the state's college students helped push the bill through last year, he said.

The system does not allow prospective voters to actually register; instead it enables them to apply to be registered. But if the applications satisfy the county officials who will review them, the voters will be registered.

Online voter registration is restricted to applicants who hold either a Washington driver's license or a state-issued identification card.

Computer images of the signatures on those documents are stored electronically in state databases, and those images will be used to validate signatures on mail ballots, the voting method used by the overwhelming majority of Washington voters.

Initially, the state will print out the completed applications and mail them to county elections officials for processing. Once the necessary technology is in place, the applications will be transmitted electronically to the counties.

The penalties for providing false information on a voter registration application will apply to electronic registration: up to five years in jail and a $10,000 fine.

Ironically, Washington rolled out online registration the same week that Arizona experienced its first notable problem with the service since its debut in 2002, Arizona officials said. The system sputtered Jan. 7, delaying and possibly preventing some voters from registering on the last day to sign up to participate in Arizona's Feb. 5 presidential primary.

The registration system in Arizona is linked to the state's database of driver's licenses, which in turn is connected to a nationwide driver's-license information network -- and it was problems with that network that fouled up the voter-registration software, Arizona Deputy Secretary of State Kevin Tyne said.

Nonetheless, 16,573 Arizonans filled out online registrations Jan. 7, a single-day total eclipsed only by the more than 20,000 who signed up on the final day to register for the 2004 presidential election, Tyne said. Overall, more than six of 10 new registrations are filed online, he said.

"It's a hugely popular way for citizens to be able to register and participate in elections," he said.

The Washington online registration system is not tied into the nationwide network of driver's-license records, a Reed aide said.

Still, Reed said, "Any time you are relying on technology, there's a risk of something going down."

NEVADA UPDATE II



"Clinton holds narrow Nevada lead on Obama: poll" (Reuters).

"Michelle Obama and John Kerry in Vegas" (video).

"Obama debuts new act in Vegas" (AP).

"Edwards sharpens criticism of Clinton, Obama" (Nevada Appeal).

"The Lose-Lose Race Debate"

Marie Cocco (Truthdig):
A truce has been called in the racial feud between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, but not before it stained both with the residue of their own follies. The peril for the Democratic Party is not as obvious as media simpletons say.
It is not only true that Clinton, if she is the eventual nominee, could suffer from lingering bitterness among African-American voters, who must turn out strongly if any Democrat is to be elected president. And it’s not that Obama will lose white women and men who have supported him in Iowa and New Hampshire, and who already support him in significant numbers in polls conducted throughout the country. These voters probably made up their minds about the two candidates some time ago.

The greater danger is that white, working and middle-class voters may turn away because the racial shouting match did not—and will not, if it resumes—speak to them at all.

The deepest division in the Democratic primary campaign until now has not been between blacks and whites, though we are likely to see stark evidence of that in the upcoming South Carolina primary. A fault line already is visible between upper-income, educated whites and those with lower incomes and less education. The upscale voters have gone with Obama, the downscale with Clinton.

The divide was hinted at as early as Iowa but went mostly unremarked in the euphoria over Obama’s win. Nonetheless, Iowa caucusgoers began to shape a profile in which Obama fares worse among those with lower incomes and among union members, for example, than he does with more affluent voters. These contours took clear form in New Hampshire.

There, Clinton beat Obama by a full 15 percentage points among those with family incomes of $50,000 or less, according to exit polls. Obama beat Clinton among those who make $50,000 or more. Clinton won easily among less-educated voters, and among union members. In short, she ran strongly among traditional Democratic groups that have been a bulwark of the party since the New Deal. Obama’s New Hampshire vote tracked closely with the slice of votes won by other Democratic candidates who ran insurgencies against the establishment—Howard Dean, Bill Bradley and Gary Hart are the most obvious examples.

Is this working-class resistance to Obama because of racism? Some of it may well be. But it certainly cannot be argued that racism caused these voters to reject white candidates such as Dean, Bradley and Hart.

Obama’s soaring rhetoric and appeal for “hope” mean a lot less to them than solid campaign proposals that address their day-to-day concerns. Bill Clinton faced media ridicule for his numbingly detailed plans. But voters didn’t get the joke. They saw practical solutions they liked. This is a big reason Hillary Clinton now mimics the approach.

Another risk for Obama is his campaign’s preoccupation with college students. In truth, less than a third of those 18 to 25 are currently enrolled in college, according to the University of Maryland’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, which studies the youth vote. That includes part-time students and those attending community colleges. Clinton, sensing an opening after Iowa, targeted young people in New Hampshire who hadn’t gone to college.

There is nothing wrong, and a lot that’s right, about engaging college students in politics. But here’s the trouble: Working-class voters don’t get excited about the size of rallies the campaigns can mount by filling them up with college kids. They agonize over not being able to afford college at all.

Here lies part of a painful Democratic Party legacy that has recently been buried, but could easily be unearthed.

In the 1970s and ’80s, many working- and middle-class white Democrats voted for Republicans, in part because of racial politics but also because they resented their own party’s drift toward what they perceived as domination by a white elite. To put it crudely, the beer drinkers distrusted the wine drinkers as people who, at best, didn’t understand their everyday concerns or, at worst, looked down on them as racist. Clinton’s presidency for a time seemed to heal the rift. Yet even after President Bush had lost favor among many middle- and working-class voters, Republicans were able to tap this vein with attacks on 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry as a windsurfer who “looks French.”

If the fissure opens wide now, Democrats seriously diminish their chances for winning in the fall. And the roots of defeat will lie partly in the rancor that Clinton and Obama stirred up themselves.
Howie P.S.: Perhaps someone will favor me with a link or two demonstrating how Obama "stirred up" this "rancor."

NEVADA UPDATE

"Campaigns scramble for votes in Nevada" (AP).

"Obama Skewers Critics in Nevada" (The Caucus, NY Times political blog).

"Connelly in Nevada: How to go to Vegas and avoid casinos" (Joel Connelly, Strange Bedfellows, Seattle-PI political blog).

"Nevada: Full Scale Union Ground War" (Marc Cooper, Huffington Post).

Feingold: "On the Democratic presidential candidates"

From an interview int he Appleton Post-Crescent (WI):
I did notice that as the primaries heated up, all of a sudden, all the presidential candidates — none of whom voted with me on the timeframe to withdraw from Iraq — all voted with me and when we did the Patriot Act stuff.

The one that is the most problematic is (John) Edwards, who voted for the Patriot Act, campaigns against it. Voted for No Child Left Behind, campaigns against it. Voted for the China trade deal, campaigns against it. Voted for the Iraq war … He uses my voting record exactly as his platform, even though he had the opposite voting record.

When you had the opportunity to vote a certain way in the Senate and you didn't, and obviously there are times when you make a mistake, the notion that you sort of vote one way when you're playing the game in Washington and another way when you're running for president, there's some of that going on.

On whether he'll make an endorsement in the Feb. 19 Wisconsin primary

Probably not. I'm having a hard time deciding between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, as are many people. Those are the two I take the most seriously.

I go back and forth, to be honest with you. I'm torn on this whole issue of who's more likely to be progressive and really seek change vs. who's ready to do the job today. It really is a true dilemma in my mind.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

"Watch Obama's Nevada TV Ad!" (video)


SEIUNevada, video (00:31):
Featuring SEIU Nevada's endorsement, this ad is currently playing across the state!

Takin' The Gloves Off: "Daily Show: Las Vegas Debate" (video)

Media Channel, video (03:31).

Howie P.S.: Jon mocks "the gloves off" talk, the "race" talk and the media.

"Merchants Of Trivia"

Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone:

Why do the media insist on reducing one of the most exciting presidential primary seasons in American history to a simple horse race?--December 28th, a beastly-cold afternoon in Story City, Iowa. Another school gym full of polite, placard-bearing Iowans herded in to support yet another pomp-and-ceremony-promising presidential candidate, in this case Hillary Clinton.
Hillary's late, however, so the campaign decides to pass the time by sending a pair of central-casting Adorable Local Children onstage to chuck HILLARY '08 T-shirts into the crowd. A young Hillary volunteer in a standard-issue Pale Blue Button-Down Shirt (the mandatory uniform of all campaign volunteers) takes the mike to introduce the kids.

"There's something you should know about these two," Pale Blue Shirt shouts. "They only respond to NOISE!!! Whoever makes the most noise gets a T-shirt!"

Robotic cheers as the kids hurl shirts in every direction. Last time I saw this act, it was New Jersey Nets mascot Sly the Silver Fox shooting tees with a slingshot to "Who Let the Dogs Out" during halftime at the Meadowlands. This time, the soundtrack is Tom Petty's nauseatingly Hillary-specific "American Girl." Some reporters are rolling their eyes, but every camera is dutifully following each flying T-shirt.

"Make sure you get that," a TV guy to my left whispers to his cameraman.

"Got it, got it," the camera guy says.

There must be a hundred reporters here, and every last one has lined up to capture this event in all its stage-managed glory. There are two camera risers, both packed to the gills with network shooters. Hillary's lectern is planted squarely between two enormous American flags; this way, every shot is sure to make her look like George C. Scott in Patton, with every curve of her ample jowls bathed in the iconic stripes of Old Glory. Campaigns pay top dollar for such images in commercials, but the free press literally fights for space on the risers, for the right to transmit those juicy images for free.

And when Hillary finally arrives, her speech turns out to be the same maddeningly nonspecific, platitude-filled verbal oatmeal that every candidate has spent the last year slinging in all directions — complete with the same vague promises for "change" we've heard from every last coached-up dog in this presidential hunt, from Barack Obama to Mitt Romney.

"Some people think you get change by demanding it," says the former first lady. "Some people think you get change by hoping for it. I think you get change by working hard for it every single day."

I see reporters frantically writing in their notebooks and laptops. The line was the money shot of this whole presentation, tomorrow's headline.

In a vacuum, of course, this is the most meaningless kind of computer-generated horseshit, the type of thing you would expect to hear coming out of the mouth of a $200-an-hour inspirational speaker at a suburban sales conference. But in this tightest of presidential races, Hillary attacking "hope" amounts to a major rhetorical offensive. "Hope," after all, is Barack Obama's own personal spoonful of oatmeal, and by disparaging it, Hillary has given this gym full of political hacks tomorrow's sports headline.

And the hacks deliver, right on cue. AN OBAMA-CLINTON TEMPEST BREWS roars The Los Angeles Times, noting that Hillary's shot at "hoping for change " is directed at Obama, while "demanding change" is code for John Edwards.

The next stage in this asinine process is the obligatory retorts. Obama responds by crowing, "I don't need lectures about how to bring about change." The "change-demander," Edwards, stakes out his own platitudinal turf, insisting that change isn't about work or hope at all, but about "toughness" and "courage."

Reading all of this crap the next day, I'm amazed. Here we are, the world's lone superpower, holding elections at a time when we're engaged in a catastrophic war in Iraq, facing a burgeoning nuclear crisis in Pakistan, dealing with all sorts of horrible stuff. And at the crucial moment, the presidential race turns into something from the cutting-room floor of Truly Tasteless Jokes #50: "Three change-promisers walk into a bar. . . ."

I mean, is this a joke, or what? What the hell is the difference between "working for change" and "demanding change"? And why can't we hope for change and work for it? Are these presidential candidates or six-year-olds?

This 2008 presidential race looked interesting once, a thrillingly up-for-grabs affair in which real issues and real ground-up voter anger threatened to wrest control of America's politics from the Washington Brahmins who usually puppeteer this process from afar. And while the end result in Iowa — a historic and inspirational Obama victory, coupled with a hilariously satisfying behind-the-woodshed third-place ass-whipping for status quo gorgon Hillary Clinton — was compelling, the media has done its best to turn a once-promising race into an idiotic exchange of Nerf-insults, delivered at rah-rah campaign events utterly indistinguishable from scholastic pep rallies. "If there's policy in this race," one veteran campaign reporter tells me with a sad laugh, "I haven't noticed it."

And while it's tempting to blame the candidates, deep in my black journalist's heart I know it isn't all their fault.

We did this. The press. America tried to give us a real race, and we turned it into a bag of shit, just in the nick of time.

EVERY reporter who spends any real time on the campaign trail gets wrapped up in the horse race. It's inevitable. You tell me how you can spend nearly two years watching the dullest speeches known to man and not spend most of your time wondering about the one surefire interesting moment the whole thing has to offer: the ending.

Stripped of its prognosticating element, most campaign journalism is essentially a clerical job, and not a particularly noble one at that. On the trail, we reporters aren't watching politics in action: The real stuff happens behind closed doors, where armies of faceless fund-raising pros are glad-handing equally faceless members of the political donor class, collecting hundreds of millions of dollars that will be paid off in very specific favors over the course of the next four years. That's the real high-stakes poker game in this business, and we don't get to sit at that table.

Instead, we get to be herded day after day into one completely controlled environment after another, where we listen to an array of ideologically similar politicians deliver professionally crafted advertising messages that we, in turn, have the privilege of delivering to the public free of charge. We rarely get to ask the candidates real questions, and even when we do, they almost never answer.

If you could train a chimpanzee to sit still through a Joe Biden speech, it could probably do the job. The only thing that elevates this work above monkey level is that we get to guess who wins.

For most of us, this is a guilty pleasure. But some of us get so used to being asked who should be running the world that our brains start to ferment. I've seen it happen. The first few times a newbie comes on the campaign trail, he's watching all the flag-waving and the soldier-humping and he's writing it all down with this stunned expression, as if to say, "Jesus, I went to college for this?" Two months later, he's doing six hits a day on MSNBC as a Senior Political Analyst and he's got this weirdly pissed-off look on his face, like he's mad that the world woke up and forgot to kiss his ass that morning. This same meek rookie you saw bent over a steno book just months ago is suddenly talking about how Hillary Clinton needs to do this, Barack Obama needs to do that — and he's serious! He's not kidding! Next thing you know, he's got an eight-figure book deal and a ten-foot pole up his crack, and he's wearing a tie and loafers to bed. In other words, he's Jonathan Alter.

I call it the Revenge of the Nerds effect. Give an army of proud professionals nothing but a silly horse race to cover, and inevitably they'll elevate even the most meaningless details of that horse race to cosmic importance.

This is how you end up getting candidates bludgeoned to death on the altar of such trivialities as "rookie mistakes" and "lack of warmth"; it's how you end up getting elections decided because candidates like John Kerry are unable to overcome adjectives like "looks French" and "long-faced Easter Island statue."

That's what happened in Iowa. For once, voters tried to say that they were perfectly capable of choosing a president without us, that they could do without any of this nonsense. But they were wrong. Nonsense would have its day!

SATURDAY, December 29th, Indianola, Iowa. Bucking the usual late-in-the-Iowa-race trend, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee shows up an hour early for a midday rally at a crowded lunch spot in this small town south of Des Moines. But the switcheroo does nothing to shake the massive crowd of press this self-made front-runner now carries around with him like the clap everywhere he goes.

With less than a week before the caucus, it's Huckabee's turn to endure one of the most crucial tests any presidential hopeful faces, the all-out full-court media press that always gets thrown at the pole position candidate. Locked in a tight race with Mitt Romney, he has so far taken the high road, refusing to mention his opponent by name, even though Romney has been whaling on Huckabee's tax record in recent days with a series of savage negative ads.

For that offense against the unwritten laws of campaign-trail horseshit, Huckabee, the one-time media darling of this race, has lately been taking a beating in the press. Reporters aren't interested in the real story line — Huckabee the innovative economic populist against Romney the unapologetic Wall Street whore, the Republican who mortified party leaders by talking sympathetically about the poor versus the coifed speculator for whom injustice means the capital gains tax. What the press wants out of Huckabee isn't more detail about his economic ideas, but evidence that he is willing to "fight back" against Romney. "Can Mr. Nice Guy go on the offensive?" wondered Politico.com, a weirdly aggressive torch-waving newcomer to the media witch-hunt game. "That's the question facing the surging Mike Huckabee. . . ."

That's the question. . . . The passive structure of the Politico lede is the standard method that campaign trail journalists use when disguising value judgments as statements of fact. There's no data backing up the notion that this really is the question facing Huckabee; the press is simply making sure Huckabee can be counted on to jump through any hoops they might decide to hold up for him, no matter how asinine these tests might be.

And jump he does. In Indianola, Huckabee not only mentions Romney by name, he unleashes a torrent of anti-Romney abuse. Previously smiling and Muppet-like in most of his stump addresses, Huckabee today is positively monomaniacal in his fixation on Romney — he sounds like a late-stage Lenny Bruce ranting about cops and Francis Cardinal Spellman. "I did not grow up privileged," he croaks. "I did not grow up with a last name that opened the door. In fact, my last name probably closed a few. Never in my life did I ever remember somebody asking my dad would he be willing to come out and endorse a candidate."

To me it's Huckabee's worst performance, but the press reviews the next day are exultant. NICE-GUY HUCKABEE FIRES BACK IN IOWA shouts the Baltimore Sun. HUCKABEE DROPS 'R-BOMBS' IN IOWA seconds a satisfied Politico.

This scene is a perfect example of the dynamic that dominates virtually all campaign coverage. No matter which issues or grass-roots support elevate a candidate to the limelight, in order to stay there he ends up having to play this game, a sort of political version of Fear Factor in which candidates must eat bowl after bowl of metaphorical worms to prove their worthiness.

The Huckabee episode is significant because Obama went through the same thing in the months leading up to Iowa. His refusal to "mix it up" with Clinton infuriated reporters. "Obama continued to shy away from a real fight with his Democratic rivals," complained Newsweek, wondering if he knew how to pursue politics "as a game, played to win."

When Obama responded with a series of parries at Hillary, the press applauded. OBAMA: BYE-BYE MR. NICE GUY? gushed the Chicago Tribune. OBAMA IN IOWA: GLOVES OFF! roared ABC.com. Shit, even Rollingstone.com got into the act (OBAMA TAKES THE GLOVES OFF).

The hilarious thing is that while Obama and Huckabee were blasted for not providing the press with enough boxing-metaphor material, Clinton was getting the business for being too feisty. IS SEN. CLINTON WARM ENOUGH TO WIN? wondered Slate. Just like the others, Hillary quickly proved her willingness to eat as many worms as we could dish out, hilariously releasing a whole Web site where Friends of Hillary lined up to swear on a stack of Bibles, that despite what you might think, the candidate isn't a crabby old battle-ax in private.

This relentless fragging from the media led to the current state of affairs in Iowa, in which all of the candidates are enjoined in a seemingly endless piss-fight over the most mind-numbing minutiae imaginable. Clinton and Obama spent days haggling bitterly over, of all things, tea. When Obama insisted that his foreign experience went beyond who "I had tea with," the Hillary camp actually went through the trouble of releasing a statement from Madeleine Albright insisting that Hillary, in fact, drank many different beverages in her travels.

On the Republican side, the Romney-Huckabee war turned increasingly bitter, with "Nice Guy" Huck calling Romney "dishonest" on the Monday before the vote. Romney responded by obliquely comparing the Huckabee record on pardons to that of another Arkansas governor, leading to amusing headlines like ROMNEY ALMOST COMPARES HUCKABEE TO BILL CLINTON.

How did one of the most genuinely interesting primary contests in American history devolve into a Grade-D smack-down that even Vince McMahon would be ashamed to promote? The real story of the campaign has been its unprecedented unpredictability — and therein lies the problem. On both tickets, the abject failure of media-anointed front-runners to hold their ground was due at least in part to voters having grown weary of being told by the press who was "electable" and who wasn't. Both the Huckabee and Ron Paul candidacies represent angry grass-roots challenges to the entrenched Republican party apparatus, while the Edwards candidacy is a frank and open attack on his own party's too-cozy relationship with corporate America. These developments signaled a meaningful political phenomenon — widespread voter disgust, not only with the two ruling parties, but with a national political press that smugly enforced the party insiders' stranglehold on the process with its incessant bullying of dissident candidates.

But there was no way this genuinely interesting theme was going to make it into mainstream coverage of the campaign heading into the primary season. It was inevitable that different, far stupider story lines would be found to dominate the headlines once the real bullets started flying in Iowa and New Hampshire. And find them we did.

A month ago, I was actually interested to see who won these first few races. But now that this whole affair has degenerated into a mass orgy of sports clichés and celebrity catfighting, I find myself more hoping that they all die in a fire somehow. And something tells me that most of America would hope that my colleagues and I burn up with them.

"Michael Savage hates Muslims"


Brave New Films, video :(01:23).
At Brave New Films, we have generally stayed away from engaging with the extreme right-wing fringe. However, the recent Michael Savage attacks against Muslims are so hateful and vicious, we believe it is important to respond. Not only does he engage in the worst kind of racist name-calling and stereotyping, he then compounds it by filing a frivolous lawsuit against CAIR because they dared to fight back. Really.
The video is very upsetting, and we believe after seeing it you will want to act.

You should call or write a personal letter to one of the sponsors listed. Don't make it an attack, but let them know that the video is shocking and you are sure they would not want to be associated with such behavior. A phone call, a letter or an email to the sponsor calling attention to this action by Savage can be effective in hitting him where it hurts.

And then have some fun. The call-in number for his radio show is 800-449-8255, and he is generally on the air between 6-9pm ET. You may have to bite your tongue to get by the phone monitors, but when you do and you get on the air, enjoy yourself. Take the high road. Don't go to his level. You might consider expressing your dismay that his sponsors (pick one, like the USDA or Intuit, the makers of TurboTax) are funding hate.

We also want you to know that we are challenging Savage to try and silence us the way he has with CAIR.

Savage filed a lawsuit against CAIR because they tried to raise money on the same website where they posted his hateful message. The full story is in the New York Times.

In support of taking on bullies and in defense of free speech, Brave New Films has decided to do exactly the same thing: put Savage's words next to a donate button on our website NOSAVAGE.org. By contributing to Brave New Films, you will send a message to the hateful bully, WE WILL NOT BE SILENCED. And we'll donate all but $1 of the proceeds to the Interfaith Alliance, a group that promotes religious freedom.

And if you have a blog or website, consider doing the same thing. Put up the YouTube video with a link to the donate page to show that his efforts to intimidate those who speak out against him will do nothing but make our voice stronger.

"No more niceties in Nevada for Clinton, Obama"

USA Today:
The gloves are off again in the Democratic presidential contest.

One day after a genteel television debate in which Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama pledged to tone down their heated rhetoric on race, the two sparred Wednesday over who had the management experience to best run the country.

In an interview with Bloomberg Television, the New York senator said she was "taken aback" at Obama's contention in Tuesday's debate that bringing vision to the presidency mattered more than making sure "paperwork is being shuffled effectively."

The Illinois senator made similar comments in an interview published Tuesday in Nevada's Reno Gazette-Journal, noting that he was not "an operating officer." The Gazette-Journal and USA TODAY are both owned by Gannett.

In the Bloomberg interview, Clinton took issue with Obama's approach, saying inspirational speeches weren't adequate preparation for the job. "I think it's important that we have a president who understands that you have to run the government," she said, not mentioning Obama by name. "We all need to be inspirational and set goals, and I've been doing that throughout this campaign."

Later, in a conference call to tout her economic stimulus package, Clinton returned to the theme. A hands-off approach to the presidency would be "disastrous," she said.

Obama's spokesman Bill Burton said Clinton seemed to believe that "this is a race for who would make the best chief of staff." He said voters are "looking for a president who has the leadership, vision and ability to bring people ... together."

The sharp tone of the exchanges, just days before Saturday's Democratic caucuses in Nevada, underscores the intense battle to capture the state.

For Clinton and Obama, a Nevada win could provide momentum before the Jan. 26 Democratic primary in South Carolina and Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, when 22 states hold contests. Fellow Democrat John Edwards, who has trailed them in national polls, is hoping for his first victory.

Polls show the Democrats locked in a three-way dead heat. They each campaigned in Nevada on Wednesday.

In another point of contention, a federal judge today will hear the legal challenge from several groups supporting Clinton who want to block the use of Las Vegas casinos as caucus sites.

The casinos sites allow Culinary Workers Union employees working on Saturday to cast their preference. The rules allowing the casinos were approved in last March when Clinton held a sizeable lead in national polls. Last week, the 60,000-member union endorsed Obama.

"We had not heard of any major objections before this lawsuit was filed," said Kirsten Searer, a spokeswoman for the Nevada Democratic Party.

On Monday, Bill Clinton defended the lawsuit, saying the caucus rules unfairly favored culinary union workers. "I think the rules ought to be the same for everybody," he said.

The Clinton campaign has not taken an official position. "We hope the courts and the state party resolve this matter," Clinton spokesman Phil Singer said.

"Obama Seeks Pivotal Female Support"

AP:
VAN NUYS, Calif. — The first two Democratic presidential contests have taught Barack Obama a lesson — as women go, so goes the state.
Obama won most of the women's vote in Iowa, and he won the state. In New Hampshire, he lost the women and the state.

With new contests approaching in his tight race with Hillary Rodham Clinton, both candidates are focusing on winning over female voters, with the latest national polls showing Clinton with the lead. The two candidates' approaches to gaining the support of women are similar — showing that they are listening to their concerns, particularly about the kitchen table economic issues that hit women disproportionately.

Which is why Obama found himself in a suburban Los Angeles back yard Wednesday, sitting around a round-table in white resin chairs with homeowner Mimi Vitello talking about her mortgage woes. Vitello, a nurse who is taking college courses at night, bought her home with an adjustable interest-only loan, and she's afraid she will lose the house with her mortgage payments on the rise.

Throughout the session, Obama made several references to the particular challenges women and minorities face in receiving mortgages or loans. The round-table in Van Nuys was one of three he had planned in four days; he had another Monday in Reno and planned a third Thursday in San Francisco.

Obama told reporters recently that his strategy to win women back is to make sure "they know what I have a track record of, what I've done on critical issues that are important to women. Not just equal rights and equal pay, not just things like childcare and daycare, and early childhood education, but opportunity that is in many ways disproportionate."

Clinton is doing some of the same type of round-table events. Clinton senior adviser Ann Lewis said it's an important part of the outreach to women.

Clinton is "saying to them, `I found my voice by listening to you and I'm going to bring your voice to the White House,'" Lewis said. "That's the kind of leader they want — is someone who hears them and speaks for them."

Obama's victory among women in Iowa was surprising because Clinton spent so much of her campaign trying to persuade women to put her in the White House, especially older women her campaign considered most likely to show up and caucus.

"Clearly the lesson from Iowa is that we had to be far more inclusive about reaching more women," Lewis said. "We got a very good response from the women who were in our model. There were a whole lot of younger and independent women we weren't talking to."

Polls of Iowa caucus-goers taken by The Associated Press and television networks show that Clinton did better among older married women than with younger, single women. But she turned that around quickly in New Hampshire, where polls of primary voters show she won both married and single women and was much more competitive with younger women.

And New Hampshire women said to a larger degree that the economy was the most important issue. Those women voted overwhelmingly for Clinton over Obama, 52 percent to 34 percent. Middle-aged women in particular tend to be most concerned about the economy, and they went narrowly for Obama in Iowa and strongly for Clinton in New Hampshire.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll out Sunday showed Clinton maintaining her strong advantage over Obama among married women nationally, 53 percent to 40 percent. But she had lost her advantage over Obama among unmarried women, the poll showed, with 43 percent of them supporting Obama and 40 percent supporting Clinton. The pollsters said that was primarily because of Obama's big increase in support among blacks, since a quarter of all unmarried women in the poll were black.

That could be an advantage in South Carolina, where at least half the Democratic primary voters in the Jan. 26 contest are expected to be black. Obama has had the most aggressive campaign for women in South Carolina, where his campaign has been holding meetings in beauty shops and living rooms for months.

In Nevada, the outcome is more uncertain, but both candidates have been trying to win women over. The Clinton campaign recently announced 1,500 Women for Hillary supporters in the state, and Obama began the week by trying to defend his record on abortion rights, which had come under attack in other states.

Howie P.S.: Long ago, I lived in Van Nuys and looking at the photo, they must be in the garage. They are positioned in front of the rake and the ladder, something every proper San Fernando Valley tract home must posses. First Read has the details on the behind-the scenes hoopla.

"RAW: One-on-One Q&A with Bill Clinton"(video)

ABC7 (CA), video (03:28). Howie Commentary:
The former president discusses the issue of casino caucus locations in Nevada on television in California.

"John Edwards Not Planning to Quietly Fade Away"

Marc Cooper (Huffington Post):
Las Vegas, NV - As he pinballs and caroms through Nevada union halls, vet centers and community meeting rooms packed with cheering, sometimes fervent crowds vowing to stand for him in this coming Saturday's caucuses, Democratic candidate John Edwards is showing absolutely no inclination toward quietly fading from the 2008 presidential race.
Though written off by much of the media and the punditocracy as the third-running and under-financed national contender behind rivals Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, the former North Carolina senator seems nevertheless buoyed by a cushion of support from organized labor, as well as from some statewide polls that put him within a few points of striking distance behind his two higher-profile opponents.

As a pulsating crowd of hundreds of union-jacketed supporters jam-packed into the local Carpenters Union hall Thursday night repeatedly stood on their feet and chanted "Go, John, Go!", a beaming Edwards, wearing jeans under his blue blazer, proclaimed himself a serious contender in the coming Democratic primaries. "The other night in the debate," he said referring to Tuesday's televised Vegas stand-off among the candidates, "a lot of caucus voters realized that contrary to what the media's been telling them for the last year there's not two, but rather three candidates in this race."

With a rocking soundtrack of Mellencamp and Springsteen blaring through the halls and meeting rooms, and with the candidate's unabashedly anti-corporate populist pitch all of a sudden deeply resonating with national hand-wringing over a possible recession, Edwards' events in this relatively union-rich state sometimes take on the tone and atmosphere of some sort of secular religious revival.

Grandmas who work in factories and who have two children deployed in Iraq are brought forward to give personal testimony on the mistreatment inflicted on them by their employers. Middle-aged working-class men in baseball caps plead with Edwards to do something, anything to stem the export of jobs. And even a 9-year old boy popped up asking the candidate if he will "save the world" by getting rid of the "smoke" caused by so many polluting factories.

"It's not everyday that a politician can understand the importance of unions," veteran carpenter Alex Gonzalez said as he introduced Edwards to the cranked-up crowd. And then with his voice cracking from emotion, he added: "And it just so happens this man is currently running for president of the United States."

Edwards appeared on the stage as a conquering hero and, brimming with confidence and determination, he immediately brought the crowd to its feet when he vowed with a rising voice and an extended right arm: "When I'm president, and when it becomes necessary... to go on strike, to be out walking that picket line - when I'm president--nobody, but nobody is gonna cross that picket line!"

While Edward's Nevada base is rock-solid organized labor, not even close to a majority of Nevada unions have lined up with him. When his campaign began to lag earlier this year, the long expected endorsements of the powerful Culinary workers and the Service Employees (SEIU) never materialized. They recently went with Obama. Meanwhile, the teachers union and the public employees in AFSCME lined up with Clinton.

But union members don't always vote with their leadership and that's one factor Edwards is counting on. Apart from the formal endorsement of the 12,000 members Carpenters Union, Edwards is hoping to siphon off rank-and-file members of other unions attracted by his increasingly fiery denunciations of what he calls the "corporate stranglehold on America." Indeed, among the audience Wednesday night were numerous supporters wearing the colors of the SEIU. "Everyone knows our union wanted Edwards from the beginning but settled for Obama when it looked like he had a better chance," said one long-time SEIU member at the Edwards rally. "A lot of us are going to caucus for John."

Even with Edwards' strong showing in the January 4 Iowa caucuses, placing second a nose ahead of Hillary Clinton, the conventional political math makes him a long-shot to win the nomination. He placed a distant third a handful of days later in the New Hampshire primary and most national soundings show Edwards lagging as much as 20 points behind the front-runners. A strong showing here on Saturday and an equal demonstration of support a week later in the South Carolina primaries seem a pre-requisite for Edwards entering the February 5 "Tsunami Tuesday --when almost two dozen states will vote--with any shred of viability.

But former Michigan congressman and Edwards' campaign manager David Bonior told The Huffington Post that "we're in this all the way, not only through February 5th, but into June and into the convention and picking up delegates all the way."

There may be more than standard campaign bravado behind Bonior's bold prediction. Edwards, in fact, doesn't have to win the nomination in order to win a similarly striking victory. If neither Obama nor Clinton can win a clean majority of nominating delegates going into the late summer Democratic convention, and if Edwards can keep scoring at least in the double-digits throughout the primaries, he could wind up with enough delegates to empower him as kingmaker, as the candidate with enough convention floor votes to sway the nomination to whom he pleases.

It's hardly a strategy that Bonior would confirm. But neither would he deny it when asked directly by the HuffPost. "I can tell you this much," Bonior said. "We're going to be marching into that convention with a whole lot of delegates."

Barack and The Holy Bible



Howie Caption: In response to reports of continuining email smears alleging that Obama is a Muslim who used a Koran at his swearing in ceremony in the U.S. Senate, I am posting this photo. I originally posted it on www.seattleforbarackobama.com at the time in October, 2007 when it became known that Obama and Cheney shared some genetic history. Hotline also posted an amusing anecdote about this occasion at that time.

"Obama gets major labor endorsement"

LA Times:
The head of the politically powerful Los Angeles County Federation of Labor said Tuesday that she is endorsing Barack Obama for president.

The endorsement by Maria Elena Durazo is a coup for Obama that could help the Illinois senator in his uphill struggle against Hillary Rodham Clinton to win substantial support among Latino voters in Southern California. Obama has won the backing of other Los Angeles-area Latino leaders, but this is probably his biggest such endorsement yet, given the broad reach of the county labor federation.
As executive secretary-treasurer of the federation, Durazo heads an organization of more than 800,000 union members, the biggest regional labor group in California. It includes janitors, teachers, construction and hotel workers as well as supermarket and government employees.

Durazo said her endorsement, to be formally announced today, was a personal one. She is taking a leave of absence from her job to campaign for Obama through Feb. 5, when more than 20 states, including California, will conduct primaries or caucuses.

"My passion is the labor movement, and I believe very strongly that Sen. Obama is very clear about his support for workers who want to organize, workers who want to lift themselves out of poverty, and also protect good middle-class jobs," Durazo said in a phone interview before taking an evening flight to Nevada, where she will work for Obama through the state's Saturday caucuses.

"On a personal level, he really embodies the slogan we use a lot, Cesar Chavez's 'SĂ­, se puede.' (Yes, we can.") He has proved it by the way he inspires voters, the way he mobilizes."

Jaime A. Regalado, executive director of the Edmund G. "Pat" Brown Institute of Public Affairs at Cal State Los Angeles, said California's Latino voters back Clinton by a wide margin, but Durazo's endorsement "might well turn" the opinions of some undecided voters.

"She's a powerful player -- there's no question about that. It will move some people, it will cause some other people to think and rethink," he said. Still, the Durazo endorsement by itself, Regalado said, is "not enough to sway" a large number of Latino voters.

But Fernando Guerra, director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University, emphasized Durazo's key role in local politics. He said Durazo "symbolizes the new power in Los Angeles and in California -- the marriage of Latinos and labor."

"And when you have those numbers, that organization and those volunteers, it makes an impact," Guerra said. "There is no person in all of California who could get more people out to the street to go do something, either to march or get the vote out."

Although Durazo's frequent political ally Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is a national co-chair of Clinton's campaign, she said her decision did not represent a serious break between the two, just a difference of opinion.

Durazo and her late husband, Miguel Contreras, who headed the county labor federation until his death in 2005, have had close ties with former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, the third major contender for the Democratic nomination. Edwards helped the federation in 2006 during a national campaign to unionize hotel workers. "He was very active on that campaign and that was very important to us, so it is difficult to make this choice," Durazo said.

Among the factors that influenced Durazo were the Obama endorsements last week by her national home union, Unite Here, along with its big culinary workers affiliate in Nevada. Durazo said she also was motivated by Obama's background as the son of an immigrant father and a U.S.-born mother who raised him as a single parent.

"He wasn't born with a silver spoon in his mouth; he was raised in humble surroundings and that will carry over when he has to make tough decisions," Durazo said.

Durazo said she also was "excited" by the prospect of Obama's becoming the nation's first African American president. When she discussed her endorsement with her son Michael, a senior at Cathedral High School in Los Angeles, he urged her to choose Obama.

"He said, 'In the end, Mom, it's the chance of a lifetime.' For him to say that means a lot. It's true."

"A Hand the Clintons Aren't Showing"

Eugene Robinson (WaPo):
It turns out that Toni Morrison's famous line about Bill Clinton as "our first black president" was just a bon mot. If the Clintons took it as a sign of African Americans' unconditional fealty, they were mistaken.

A new Post-ABC News poll shows that black Democrats nationwide support Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton for the presidential nomination by nearly 2 to 1. This striking reversal -- a month ago, Clinton held a big lead among African Americans -- is perhaps why race has suddenly become such a hot issue in a campaign that previously had dodged the subject.
It was never realistic to think that race -- or gender, for that matter -- would stay out of a contest starring the first woman and the first African American with realistic hopes of becoming president. From the Democrats' perspective, it's probably better to hash all this out now rather than wait until the general election campaign, when the Republican Swift-boat machine would set the parameters and tone for the discussion.

Still, it's surprising that the Clinton campaign has been so aggressive in keeping the race issue alive. On "Meet the Press," Clinton didn't just seek to explain her remarks about the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.'s role in landmark civil rights legislation (she said it took a president to bring about real action) or Bill's "fairy tale" crack about Obama's record on the Iraq war (which some African Americans took as a dismissal of Obama's candidacy as mere fantasy). Instead, she went on the attack, accusing the Obama campaign of "deliberately distorting" her words in a way that was "unfair and unwarranted."

That seemed a curious tactic to employ just two weeks before the South Carolina Democratic primary, in which African Americans are expected to cast about half the total votes. It seemed especially curious after the most powerful black politician in the state, U.S. House Majority Whip James Clyburn, indicated he was so "bothered" by the Clintons' remarks that he might rethink his decision not to endorse any candidate before the primary.

With most polls showing Clinton well behind in South Carolina, it was unclear how this approach would do anything but put her further behind.

The charitable explanation would be that the Clintons are, in their political position, simply disoriented. They are accustomed to Bill Clinton's campaigns, in which African American support was pretty much assumed. Backing for Hillary Clinton from prominent friends and allies such as Andrew Young, Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), Vernon Jordan, Magic Johnson, Quincy Jones and others didn't manage to keep Obama out of the race -- and, according to the polls, won't keep black voters from supporting him. It would be understandable if the Clintons were frustrated at seeing such an important Democratic constituency lured away, and if they were doubly frustrated at the difficulty of finding a way to criticize Obama without further alienating African Americans.

This is politics, however, which means that less charitable explanations have to be considered as well.

Race is just one of the fights that the Clinton campaign is pressing with Obama; the other is an attempt to discredit Obama's opposition to the war. It could be that the idea is to engage Obama in so much tit-for-tat combat that his image as a new, post-partisan kind of politician is tarnished.

Or the strategy could be more subtle. I can't help but recall a certain piece of history.

In 1992, when Bill Clinton was running for president, a controversial hip-hop artist named Sister Souljah made an ugly comment about the Los Angeles riots: "If black people kill black people every day, why not have a week and kill white people?" Candidate Clinton highlighted the remark in a speech to the Rev. Jesse Jackson's Rainbow Coalition, comparing Souljah to Ku Klux Klan member David Duke. The episode demonstrated that Clinton was not only tough on lawlessness but also willing to challenge "special interests" -- in this case, black activists.

The Clintons are reading the polls, too; they might well be resigned to the possibility that most black Democrats will vote for Obama. This would mean that South Carolina is probably already lost and that the campaign's focus now has to be on Florida and the many states whose delegates are up for grabs on "Tsunami Tuesday."

Is it possible that accusing Obama and his campaign of playing the race card might create doubt in the minds of the moderate, independent white voters who now seem so enamored of the young, black senator? Might that be the idea?

Yes, that's a cynical view. But history is history.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Pollster.com: Two Polls







From Pollster.com

"Hillary Hits Obama: We Need A "Hands On" President" (with video)

Election Central (TPM) with video:(01:13):
In a move that suggests the Hillary camp thinks Obama committed a misstep that gives them an opening, Hillary went out of her way in an interview today to criticize Obama's recent claim that voters aren't looking for a "chief operating officer" in a president.

Hillary's criticism of Obama -- which furthers the running argument between the two candidates over the relative values of inspirational rhetoric and hands-on legislative work -- came in an interview she just conducted moments ago with Bloomberg News.

Her comments were a response to Obama's claim yesterday that he's "not an operating officer," and that the job of president isn't to "run some bureaucracy," but rather to "set a vision." Here's what Hillary said today (video supplied by her campaign):

Key Hillary quotes:

I was somewhat taken aback about what he said, that was reported yesterday. I think it’s important that we have a president who understands that you have to run the government.

We all need to be inspirational and set goals, and I’ve been doing that throughout this campaign. We need to set big goals for our standing in the world, for our economy, to deal with energy and health care and so much else that is really on the minds of the people...

They want a president who they believe gets up every single day and works for them, that requires a president who is hands-on. Who after you set the goals and give the speeches, you go back to the White House and you start holding people accountable and you want to know what they’ve done today to help the American people.

You’ve got to take on this government, you’ve got to to run this government, you can’t leave it to others.

It remains to be seen whether this effort to paint Obama as merely a would-be Inspirer in Chief will prove a winning argument, but either way, expect to hear more of this.