Clinton Campaign strategist Mark Penn has begun spinning Hillary Clinton's potential loss in this weekend's Nevada's caucus, contending that an Obama victory would be essentially illegitimate.
In an unusual memo sent to reporters on Friday evening, Penn bemoans Obama's local labor support and emphasizes that two recent polls show Clinton ahead, so the "easy explanation" for an Obama victory would be his union support. This analysis of Obama's (potentially) winning coalition is presented as some sort of indictment, picking up on Bill Clinton's complaints that local party rules allow wide participation in the caucus.
Yet even given Penn's stormy history with labor and the low "standards" of campaign spin, this attack is particularly desperate. Democratic candidates are supposed to win over labor voters. In fact, if Obama -- or any candidate -- wins Nevada on the strength of union voters, it would validate his appeals to the huge labor electorate on Super Tuesday. Meanwhile, Nevada's tiny caucus universe cannot be reliably surveyed, (as I've explained before), so these polls are unlikely to reflect Saturday's turnout. Of course, Mark Penn knows that. "Turnout is uncertain since the last election saw only 9,000 voters come out," he notes in the memo. And that's exactly why he's already spinning a loss, even as he emphasizes that Clinton is "ahead 9 points."
Most political reporters erred by treating the New Hampshire primary as a story about polls, not people. Mark Penn is betting they'll repeat the same mistake when interpreting the Nevada results.
Barack Obama
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