Superdelegates: Front and Center

Map from NPI: Key--Counties in blue broke for Barack Obama. The darker the hue, the stronger Obama's support. County names and percentage tiers are marked. The one purple shape (Douglas) in the middle is the only county to back Clinton.

WaPo (page one), "796 Insiders May Hold Democrats' Key":

For months, Patsy Arceneaux sat on the fence as key aides to the presidential campaigns of Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama made gentle but persistent inquiries. Ann Lewis, a close Clinton adviser, called weekly. The 2004 Democratic nominee, Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), called, urging her to jump behind Obama.

They all wanted to know the same thing: how she planned to vote in her role as a superdelegate at this summer's national convention.

Last week, the Baton Rouge party loyalist, one of 796 Democratic insiders who may well determine the eventual nominee, got the call that finally persuaded her -- from former president Bill Clinton, the man who 10 years earlier gave her husband a job.

"When the president called, I said to him, 'I guess I've moved to the top of the food chain,' " Arceneaux laughed. "He was very persuasive."

The calls were just one aspect of the aggressive campaign underway to win what could be the most important and least understood contest in the race for the Democratic nomination. As a group, the "superdelegates," a category created by party leaders in 1982 to give elected officials more clout in the nominating process, constitute a prize worth twice as much as the state of California.

Though Clinton and Obama have pursued the support of superdelegates for a year, the courtships have intensified in recent weeks as it has become clear that the two are locked in a virtual dead heat for delegate support. Party insiders say this could be the first campaign in more than two decades that reaches the national convention in August without a clear nominee, making the votes of superdelegates -- a group made up of current and former top elected officials and Democratic National Committee (DNC) members from around the nation -- potentially decisive.

"Right now, everyone is busting their chops to try to get the remaining superdelegates to commit. And they're having a real hard time of it," said Mike Berman, a Clinton supporter who worked on Walter F. Mondale's 1984 campaign, the last one in which superdelegates were a factor.

So far, 213 superdelegates have publicly committed to backing Clinton and 139 have pledged their support to Obama, according to a survey by the Associated Press.

The potential for superdelegates to play a critical role has some party leaders worried that the situation could lend the appearance that the nominee will be selected by insiders rather than by rank-and-file voters.

That appearance is not helped by the fact that so many superdelegates have clear allegiances. Bill Clinton, for instance, is a superdelegate by virtue of his tenure as president, as are Clinton campaign chairman Terence R. McAuliffe and longtime Clinton ally Harold Ickes. Though Hillary Clinton has a clear edge, former senator Thomas A. Daschle (S.D.), a strong Obama supporter, and Alan Solomont, Obama's Northeast finance chairman, are superdelegates as well.

Some have significant financial ties to the campaigns. The Clinton campaign paid Ickes's company, Catalist, a broker of voter contact lists, more than $125,000 last year. Obama's campaign also paid Ickes's firm, spending $25,000 to rent a mailing list.

A company run by Mark S. Weiner, a Clinton supporter who became a superdelegate by virtue of his party leadership role in Rhode Island, has been paid more than $800,000 for campaign bumper stickers, signs and other paraphernalia.

Both said in interviews that their company contracts will not influence their votes as superdelegates. "We're not in anybody's pocket," Ickes said.

Within the Clinton and Obama campaigns, though, the only concern has been amassing support.

At a recent House Democratic Caucus retreat in Virginia, members who had already committed to a presidential candidate used every spare moment to lobby their colleagues.

"There's a concerted effort in both camps to talk to as many people, as many superdelegates, as possible about your candidate," said Rep. John B. Larson (Conn.), who was originally a supporter of Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (Conn.).

Larson and Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), another former Dodd supporter, officially endorsed Obama on Feb. 2 and joined a growing network of members of Congress who are organizing an outreach effort to line up more superdelegates for him. With Clinton ahead in superdelegate endorsements so far, Obama supporters are making lists of undeclared House and Senate Democrats and setting up meetings to pitch their candidate.

"It will be a door-to-door campaign on my part with my colleagues," DeLauro said, adding that she has set up about a dozen meetings with House Democrats for the weeks ahead. "It will be a formidable operation."

Democratic operatives not affiliated with either campaign consider Clinton's operation in the superdelegate race much more formidable. Rep. John D. Dingell (Mich.), the longest-serving member of the House, never received a call from the Obama campaign, according to a source close to the Energy and Commerce Committee chairman. Last week, Dingell endorsed Clinton.

And some superdelegates can be worth more than others, particularly those who have the ability to bring along others with them.

Sen. Evan Bayh (Ind.), who endorsed Clinton last year and is viewed as a vice presidential possibility, is trying to lock down the five DNC members from Indiana who are superdelegates on behalf of Clinton, according to a source close to Bayh.

Obama's campaign is working hard to catch up.

While three members of Connecticut's congressional delegation have endorsed Obama, the state has six DNC members who are also superdelegates. Two days after Dodd's campaign flamed out in Iowa, Obama was on the phone, telling Larson about his bid and the high-minded effort to refashion the way campaigns are waged.

"Obama made the best pitch himself. Sometimes seeing is believing," Larson said, recalling that both candidates and Bill Clinton called the weekend after the Iowa caucuses. "I heard from him. I heard from Hillary. I heard from Obama. . . . It's not as if they were beating down the path to me. They were beating down the path to everyone."

The calculation of whom to endorse can be complicated: Superdelegates must think not only about their personal views but also about how their votes will be viewed by constituents, said Ickes, who has chased their support on behalf of candidates since 1988.

"You try to figure out, what factors influence them? Who do they talk to about presidential politics?" Ickes said. "Sometimes, it's two or three close confidants, sometimes it's a chief of staff, or someone who raises money for them. Maybe there's an issue that's important to them."

One adviser helping to oversee Obama's superdelegate efforts said the Clintons entered the contest for support with a significant edge, by virtue of Bill Clinton's ability to get on the phone and "try to call in all the chits that they believe they have."

The Obama adviser thinks those delegates are all spoken for at this point. "They got all of the low-hanging fruit. The ones left are the ones much harder for them to reach," he said, referring to the Clinton campaign.

With more than half of the superdelegates unclaimed, both campaigns remain hard at work. And even those whom they believe are secure could move. Arceneaux, the Baton Rouge delegate whose husband was named by Clinton in the 1990s as head of Sallie Mae, the nation's largest student loan company, said she is well aware of the fact that superdelegates are not firmly bound to a candidate until they stand up at the convention in August.

"I always have the option of changing my mind," she said.

NY Times (page one), "Neck and Neck, Democrats Woo Superdelegates":

Seeing a good possibility that the Democratic presidential nomination will not be settled in the primaries and caucuses, Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are lavishing attention on a group that might hold the balance of power: elected officials and party leaders who could decide the outcome at the convention in August.

There are 796 of them, and if neither Mr. Obama nor Mrs. Clinton emerges from the primary season with the 2,025 delegates necessary to secure the nomination, they will in essence serve as tiebreakers. That is a result both sides see as increasingly likely.

Known as superdelegates because they are free to cast their votes at the convention as they see fit, they are the object of an intensifying and potentially high-stakes charm offensive by the candidates and their supporters.

“We have all been bombarded with e-mails from everybody and their mamas,” said Donna Brazile, a senior member of the Democratic National Committee. “Like, ‘Auntie Donna, you’re a superdelegate!’ My niece called me today to lobby me. I didn’t know what to say.”

Mr. Obama, of Illinois, and Mrs. Clinton, of New York, are setting aside hours each week to call superdelegates, and their campaigns have set up boiler rooms to pursue likely targets.

The Clinton campaign has established a system, overseen by one of the party’s most seasoned behind-the-scenes operators, Harold Ickes, to have superdelegates contacted by carefully chosen friends and local supporters, as well as by big-name figures like Madeleine K. Albright, a former secretary of state. For particularly tough sells, the campaign has former President Bill Clinton or Chelsea Clinton make the call.

Mr. Obama has enlisted Tom Daschle, the popular former Senate majority leader, as well as Gov. Janet Napolitano of Arizona and Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the party’s 2004 presidential nominee.

“You know there is something interesting going on when you pick up your cellphone and see all those out-of-state phone numbers,” said Representative Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona, who reported getting calls from Ms. Napolitano and Mr. Daschle.

A survey of the superdelegates by The New York Times that was completed a week ago found that 204 had decided to back Mrs. Clinton, 99 backed Mr. Obama and the rest said they were undecided or did not respond. The survey came before the coast-to-coast contests on Tuesday, and the superdelegates can change their minds at any time.

Surveys by other news organizations have shown Mr. Obama in a stronger position, underlining the difficulties facing news organizations — and campaigns — trying to get a firm count from this group of delegates.

The superdelegates include all Democratic governors and members of Congress, as well as officials and other prominent members of the party. In interviews, some said they were grappling with how to use their power if it comes into play, especially if their judgment does not match the will of a majority of voters.

Should they ratify the decision by regular delegates and vote for the candidate who is ahead in June, no matter how small the lead? Are they obligated to follow the vote of their constituents in primaries or caucuses? Or should they simply follow their conscience and vote for whoever they think is the best nominee?

Superdelegates, created in 1982, were intended to restore some of the power over the nomination process to party insiders, tempering the zeal of party activists. About 15 to 20 percent of the delegates at Democratic conventions are superdelegates.

In the close race for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1984, superdelegates overwhelmingly supported Walter F. Mondale, helping to secure his defeat of Gary Hart. This year, the competition is more intense, and the superdelegates’ support more evenly divided.

Mr. Obama, talking to reporters in Seattle on Friday, said he believed superdelegates should follow the will of the voters.

“My strong belief is that if we end up with the most states and the most pledged delegates from the most voters in the country, that it would be problematic for the political insiders to overturn the judgment of the voters,” Mr. Obama said. “I think it is also important for superdelegates to think about who will be in the strongest position to defeat John McCain in November and who will be in the strongest position to ensure that we are broadening the base, bringing people who historically have not gotten involved in politics into the fold.”

Mrs. Clinton, campaigning Saturday in Maine, disputed Mr. Obama’s interpretation of how superdelegates should make their decision, arguing, as her aides have in conversations with superdelegates, that they should make an independent decision based on who they thought would be the strongest candidate and president. She brought up Senators Kerry and Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts; both men have endorsed Mr. Obama, but Mrs. Clinton won that state on Tuesday.

“Superdelegates are, by design, supposed to exercise independent judgment,” she said at a news conference in Maine, according to MSNBC. “But, of course, if Senator Obama and his campaign continue to push this position, which is really contrary to what the definition of a superdelegate has historically been, I will look forward to receiving the support of Senator Kennedy and Senator Kerry.”

Chris Redfern, the Ohio Democratic Party chairman, said he did not intend to pledge his vote until after all the primaries were completed. “You want to make the convention interesting, don’t you?” Mr. Redfern asked.

He said Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama had sought his support, as a superdelegate and as the head of the Ohio party. Neither offered him any inducements, he said, “not even a T-shirt.”

Democrats, including aides to both candidates and party leaders, said they were concerned about a summer-long fight should the primary voting end in June without a clear winner.

“It is going to be an enormous train wreck unless by June 3 a candidate has a majority,” said Senator Bill Nelson of Florida, who supports Mrs. Clinton. “I don’t think we want to go back to those wheeling-dealing, smoke-filled back-room days.”

The prospect that the nomination could be decided by party insiders rather than by the voters has stirred unease among many superdelegates as they weigh potentially conflicting loyalties to their constituents and to Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama.

Several legislators said they would stay neutral as long as possible, hoping to be spared a decision. But, they said, they are prepared to step in and try to push the party to a decision as soon as the voting is over.

“Once the primary season is over, I am hoping we will have a nominee,” said Senator Benjamin L. Cardin of Maryland. “If those of us who are uncommitted can help bring that about, then I think we should try to do that.”

Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, who is neutral, said she would not stay on the sidelines for long once the voting was over. “I will not go through the summer, I can tell you that, without endorsing a candidate,” she said. “I am not a big believer in smoke-filled rooms.”

Aides to Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama said it had been increasingly challenging to lock down supporters as they traded victories in primaries and caucuses.

Under Democratic Party rules for primaries, delegates are allocated proportionately — rather than winner take all — which complicates the candidates’ efforts to build up a big lead.

“The people who were initially inclined to either candidate got on board early,” said Mr. Ickes, a 40-year veteran of Democratic National Committee battles who is running the operation for Mrs. Clinton out of her headquarters in Virginia. “But at this point, it’s getting harder to get people — especially if they now think there is no front-runner.”

Some of Mr. Obama’s supporters signaled they might battle hard to keep any advantage Mrs. Clinton maintained in superdelegates — in part a dividend from the long relationship of the Clintons with the Democratic National Committee and elected officials — from overcoming any advantage Mr. Obama might have in pledged delegates from the primaries and caucuses.

“My personal opinion is it would be a mistake and disastrous either way for the superdelegates — insiders, establishment politicians — to come along and overturn the expressed view of those pledged delegates,” Mr. Kerry said.

Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon said he had not taken sides, partly out of the hope that the fight would not end up on his plate, but also because he needed to work with both candidates in the Senate on health care legislation.

“I want to spend my time doing as much as possible to have this teed up for a Democratic president,” Mr. Wyden said of the health care plan. “That being said, if this goes until the very end, I am going to have to swallow hard and make a judgment.”

Howie P.S.: To give you an idea of the power of yesterday's results, Clinton sympathizer (IMHO) Ben Smith now says, "Obama landslides could break deadlock." "Huge Turnout" photos from The Stranger's blog, SLOG, as well as boatloads of anecdotal words and pictures.

Barack Obama

"Lively, passionate crowds all over region" (with video and slideshow)

Seattle Times, with video and a slideshow (CLICK HERE):

Precinct Officer Twanda Hill projects her voice to be heard over the crowd gathered for the Democratic caucus in Tukwila.

White Center

All this talk about the surge of new young voters. Yet sitting across the table from each other at a Democratic caucus at White Center Heights Elementary were two elderly women who said they are more fired up about politics than ever before.

Charlotte McFail, 78, was attending her first caucus.

"I am old and crotchety, and I don't like what's happening to my country," said McFail, who was carrying a knobby walking stick that she calls her "club."

Gladys Chiarello, 83, had been to a caucus once before. She said she came out because "I'm tired of hollering at them guys on the TV."

McFail and Chiarello didn't see eye to eye on the candidates.

McFail referred to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as "my lady." She admires Clinton for gracefully handling "such incredible travails," including her husband's highly publicized infidelities.

Chiarello, an Obama supporter, had just the opposite take: "I really got down on her when she didn't run that husband out the door."

— Ralph Thomas

Lynnwood

Laurie Winder says she's "never done anything Republican in my life." But the anti-war stance of Texas Congressman Ron Paul brought her to Lynnwood's Silver Creek Community Church on Saturday, where she tried passionately to sway others to the Paul camp.

Winder, who teaches at Western Washington's human-services program in Everett, stuck out her tongue at the mention of GOP front-runner John McCain, whom she views as a warmonger.

Winder's small Lynnwood-area precinct was evenly split between three Paul supporters and three McCain supporters. Winder's pleading failed to change the mind of Daniel Kohagen, 18, a student at Everett Community College, who said he respected McCain's military service and anti-abortion credentials. He looked incredulous at the thought of backing Paul, who wants to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq.

"A vote for Ron Paul is a vote for the terrorists," Kohagen said. "You can quote that."

His mother, Janet Kohagen, beamed. "Daniel wants to run for president."

— Jim Brunner

Tukwila

In Democratic precinct 11-2752 in Tukwila, caucus attendees split 26 for Barack Obama, 13 for Hillary Rodham Clinton and one for Dennis Kucinich. That vote was easy. The hard one was selecting four Obama delegates to the King County Democratic Convention. "I've been involved in politics in South King County for many years," said Timothy Dunn before laying out his credentials to other Obama supporters.

"I have really no political experience," said Levon Dunn, Timothy's son and rival for a delegate spot. "I'm just 17. But I thought I could represent the younger voter."

Levon, a senior at Tyee High School, turns 18 in May, making him eligible to participate in the caucus and become a delegate.

Levon, though, already had been told by his mother, Leslie Wagoner, that he couldn't be a delegate because of the time commitment. "You know what I want for him? I want him to graduate from high school," she said.

"My first vote," Levon sighed, "and it's a 'no.' "

But when the Obama supporters began choosing their delegates, Mom was busy, huddled with other Clinton supporters. That gave Levon his opening to defy her. "This is the way Kennedy started!" said Russell Bradley, who was egging Levon on.

After hearing the pitches, the Obama voters jotted down their four delegate preferences via secret ballot.

Dad made the cut. But son didn't, settling for the consolation prize of being the first alternate.

— Stuart Eskenazi

Seattle

Wedgwood Elementary School in northeast Seattle was clearly Obama country Saturday.

But as 75 people gathered outside the cafeteria, a man wearing jeans, sneakers and a "Hillary!" lapel sticker piped up.

"I respect Obama," he said. "But I worry. I think we need to be careful. He's inspirational and hopeful, but can he do the job? We shouldn't be dazzled by his dazzleness alone. Dazzle doesn't get the job done."

— Haley Edwards

Kent

For Randolph and Sheryl Watkins, the 2008 presidential election is a family affair — even though not every family member is on the same page.

While Randolph and Sheryl are strong supporters of John McCain, their 19-year-old daughter is a fervent Barack Obama backer. Their two sons are both pulling for Mike Huckabee.

The parents, both 52, attended the Republican caucus at the Kentlake High School cafeteria. Randolph became a delegate by default because he and Sheryl were the only two from their precinct to show up.

While talking about his daughter, Randolph pointed to the school gym, where the Democratic caucus was being held, and jokingly sneered, "She's over there!"

Sheryl says she enjoys being able to debate politics in her household. "It's very exciting in our house," Sheryl said. "And it's so fun seeing young people — 19- and 20 year-old kids — getting involved in the political process."

— Yu Nakayama

Seattle

The first round of applause in Democratic precinct 43-2853 wasn't for Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton, but for caucus-goers themselves, after a tally showed 80 people turned out — more than four times the number who came in 2004.

"I've been apathetic in the last two elections, and it hasn't worked out so well for the republic," said Randall Lucas, 28, an associate with a venture-capital firm who decided just within the last two weeks to get active in the Obama campaign.

The precinct's caucus-goers, most of whom were attending their first caucus, listened politely to mini-speeches on behalf of both candidates. But it was clear most had arrived with their minds made up, as the preponderance of Obama lapel stickers indicated.

"I have nothing against the Clintons. I love Hillary Rodham Clinton," said Harley Rees, 59, a theater manager. "But I believe Obama can help us make a better world."

— Jack Broom

Everett

Eight years ago, Dylan Malone became an overnight media star when then-presidential candidate Al Gore made Malone's 6-month-old son, Ian, a poster child for national health-care reform.

That fall, Malone's family sat next to Tipper Gore at the national Democratic Convention as the vice president gave his acceptance speech, again citing Ian's insurance nightmares.

On Saturday, Malone was elected as a Democratic delegate, representing his Northwest Everett neighborhood.

"I've tried to stay active in politics as a way of honoring Ian's memory, as he died [of pneumonia] in 2004," said Malone, 34, who designs Web sites and studies political science at the University of Washington.

In 2004, Malone chaired a national effort to draft Gore into the presidential race. Now he postulates a scenario of a Denver convention with no clear winner between Obama and Clinton.

"If I could get uncommitted delegates sent to the convention, then I still can advocate for Gore," said Malone.

"It's only half as crazy as it sounds," he insisted. "It's been known to happen. It's entirely possible that neither Clinton nor Obama can win. If it gets ugly, then the party may return to its greatest statesman to unify us."

— Diane Brooks

Bellevue

At Stevenson Elementary School, David Kim, 42, an anesthesiologist, couldn't come to terms with Sandy Dagnon, a 66-year-old retiree, on a candidate — but that's about the only thing they couldn't agree on. While Kim held forth on Mike Huckabee and Dagnon stood firm on John McCain, the pair realized they were neighbors at the new Lincoln Square condos in downtown Bellevue.

Dagnon admitted she liked Huckabee's personality. And Kim said he respected McCain's support of the Iraq war. They never switched sides, but they exchanged phone numbers and hugged before leaving.

"They say you should never talk religion and politics," Kim said of their future meetings. "There are times you should talk about it, and this is the year."

— Ashley Bach

Barack Obama

Obama: 'We Can Win Virginia on Tuesday' (video)

The Trail, video (02:59):

Video excerpts from Barack Obama's speech to Virginia Democrats at the annual Jefferson-Jackson Dinner Saturday night in Richmond.

Barack Obama

Two From Seattle: Goldstein and Loeb

"WA Caucus: Obama Routs Clinton," David Goldstein (Huffington Post):

Anecdotal reports are trickling in from throughout the state, and if they're at all representative, it looks like we may see a rout for Barack Obama in Washington's Democratic presidential caucus. Turnout has been HUGE almost everywhere, with caucus sites running out of sign-in sheets, chairs, and even standing room. Everybody expected crowds, but nobody seemed prepared for anything like this.

At my own southeast Seattle location, in the heart of one of the most ethnically diverse neighborhoods in the nation, Obama averaged a four-to-one advantage across the various precincts, with similar results being reported from throughout Seattle and the Puget Sound region. I haven't heard from the other side of the mountains yet, but I'll update as more reports come in.

UPDATE 4:50PM:
Reports are now coming in from Eastern Washington, where Obama appears to be putting up similar numbers. Record turnout statewide -- twice that from 2004 -- and an apparent landslide for Obama. Official results should be coming soon.

UPDATE 5:40PM:
The official results are now pouring in, and the rout is confirmed. With 42% of precincts reporting, Obama leads Clinton 67% to 31%. I've updated the title accordingly.

UPDATE 7:20PM:
Still 67-31 Obama, now with 94% of precincts reporting. And Obama's support turned out to be as wide as it was deep, with him winning the delegate battle in 38 of WA's 39 counties. Meanwhile on the Republican side, Huckabee and Romney remain neck and neck with 16% of precincts reporting.

Look for more information and regular updates at HorsesAss.org.

"Hillary Heeds Hawks: How Obama's and Clinton's Advisors Mirror Their War Stands," Paul Loeb (Huffington Post):

In their focus on the electoral horse-race, the media have ignored a key difference between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton--the positions of their foreign policy advisors on the Iraq war.

As political scientist Stephen Zunes points out in Foreign Policy in Focus, Clinton's key advisors overwhelmingly supported it, while Obama's opposed it. The differences in their positions on whether to go to war mirror those of the two candidates. They also give a sense of how Clinton and Obama are likely to deal with the immensely difficult foreign policy challenges they'll face if elected, including dealing with Iraq.

Zunes's article, revised and shortened for HuffPo:

The President makes the decisions, but who advises the President? We know Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, and Richard Perle insisted to Bush that American forces would be treated as liberators if we went into Iraq. McCain has surrounded himself with people likely to encourage him to follow a similar disastrous path if he becomes President. But what about Obama and Clinton?

A major difference stands out among those they are likely to appoint to key posts in national defense, intelligence, and foreign affairs: Almost everyone in Senator Obama's foreign policy team opposed the U.S. invasion. By contrast, most of Senator Clinton's foreign policy team, which largely comprises veterans of her husband's administration, strongly supported George W. Bush's call for a U.S. invasion of Iraq.

It should come as no surprise that during the run-up to the Iraq invasion, Obama spoke at a Chicago anti-war rally while Clinton went as far as falsely claiming that Iraq was actively supporting al-Qaeda. And during the recent State of the Union address, when Bush proclaimed that the Iraqi surge was working, Clinton stood and cheered while Obama remained seated and silent.

Clinton's advisors are similarly confident in the ability of the United States to impose its will through force. This is reflected to this day in the strong support for President Bush's troop surge among such Clinton advisors (and original invasion advocates) as Jack Keane, Kenneth Pollack and Michael O'Hanlon.

Clinton's top foreign policy advisor - and her likely pick for Secretary of State - Richard Holbrooke, insisted that Iraq remained "a clear and present danger at all times." He rejected the broad international legal consensus against such offensive wars and insisted European governments and anti-war demonstrators who opposed a U.S. invasion of Iraq "undoubtedly encouraged" Saddam Hussein.

Clinton advisor Sandy Berger, who served as her husband's national security advisor, insisted that "even a contained Saddam" was "harmful to stability and to positive change in the region" and insisted on the necessity of "regime change." Other top Clinton advisors - such as former Clinton Secretary of State Madeleine Albright - confidently predicted that American military power could easily suppress any opposition to a U.S. takeover of Iraq.

By contrast, during the lead-up to the war, Obama's advisors recognized as highly suspect the Bush administration's claims regarding Iraq's "weapons of mass destruction" and offensive delivery systems capable of threatening U.S. national security.

Now advising Obama, former Carter National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, for example, argued that public support for war "should not be generated by fear-mongering or demagogy." Brzezinski seems to have learned from mistakes like arming the Mujahideen. He warned that invading a country that was no threat to the United States would threaten America's global leadership because most of the international community would see it as an illegitimate act of aggression.

Another key Obama advisor, the Carnegie Endowment's Joseph Cirincione, argued that the goal of containing the potential threat from Iraq had been achieved as a result of sanctions, the return of inspectors, and a multinational force stationed in the region serving as a deterrent. Meanwhile, other future Obama advisors - such as Susan Rice, Larry Korb and Samantha Power - raised concerns about the human and material costs of invading and occupying a large Middle Eastern country and the risks of American forces becoming embroiled in post-invasion chaos and a lengthy counter-insurgency war.

These differences in the key circles of foreign policy specialists surrounding these two candidates are consistent with their diametrically opposing views in the lead-up to the war, with Clinton voting to let President Bush invade that oil-rich country at the time and circumstances of his choosing, while Obama was speaking out to oppose a U.S. invasion.

Taken together, they support the likelihood that a Hillary Clinton administration, like Bush's, would be more likely to embrace exaggerated and alarmist reports regarding potential national security threats, to ignore international law and the advice of allies, and to launch offensive wars.

By contrast, as The Nation magazine noted, a Barack Obama administration would be more likely to examine the actual evidence of potential threats before reacting, to work more closely with America's allies to maintain peace and security, to respect the country's international legal obligations, and to use military force only as a last resort.

In terms of Iran, for instance, Cirincione has downplayed the supposed threat, while Clinton advisor Holbrooke insists that "the Iranians are an enormous threat to the United States," the country is "the most pressing problem nation," and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is like Hitler. This is consistent with Clinton's vote for the Kyl-Lieberman amendment that opened the door to a potential Bush attack on Iran, and with Obama's opposition to it.

Given the problems exemplified by the tragic legacy of the current administration, primary voters should recognize that Obama's promise of change is the most prudent course in these dangerous times.

Barack Obama

"At Seattle Caucus, Strong Obama Support"

The Trail, WaPo political blog:

Early this afternoon Madhavi Vuthoori, latte in hand, started making her way over to the Center School to caucus with other Democrats here. Vuthoori, a Teaneck, N.J.-native who works for "a tea start-up" -- that's cold, bottled chai, in case you were wondering -- was looking forward to participating in her first caucus even though she was torn on who to support.

"I'm undecided," she explained. "But I'm going to make a decision."

Just because Vuthoori hadn't picked between Democratic Sens. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) didn't mean that she wasn't prepared. She had printed out the transcript of last month's Democratic debate in Los Angeles and read the entire thing, and had researched the rules for caucusing as well.

Once she made her way past the Key Arena -- where Obama drew an audience of roughly 17,000 on Friday -- she ducked into a part of the Seattle Center complex, and made her way past the food court to a polling place. The neighborhood, lower Queen Anne, is the kind of place where the voting sign-in sheet features two optional boxes: one for ethnicity and another for "LGBT," shorthand for lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender.

Plenty of other Democratic residents of precinct 1704 had shown up as well. Between 350 and 450 voters from half a dozen precincts came to vote, compared to 175 last time. After voters made their way into a cramped classroom Lindsay Bealko -- who cautioned she had "no formal role whatsoever" in the polling process -- informed the group they needed to "try to really slowly and really carefully" to make their way to a bigger room so as not to present a fire hazard. After the crowd of 107 relocated to a bigger room, they had to switch once more to an even larger room.

Vuthoori settled into her chair, flanked on both sides by Obama supporters who touted their candidate's positions on climate change and student grants (she's applying to graduate school at the moment).

And while she wasn't about to declare, Vuthoori was leaning toward Obama from the outset. The two candidates held roughly the same positions, Vuthoori noted, and while she admired Clinton's experience, Obama had opposed the war from the outset.

"My gut feeling goes to him," she explained. "He's nice. It might be nice to have a nice guy in the Oval Office."

At the outset of the caucus, Nicole Drinkwine-Suarez read the preliminary numbers: Obama 74, Clinton 21, Edwards 3 and Undecided 9. And then the caucusing began.

Different representatives made their cases: the Edwards supporter, Todd Lawson explained that he wanted Democrats to remember that infighting could undermine their ability to bring change.

"My point is, let's get the Republicans out of the White House," Lawson said to scattered applause. "Hillary's change, Obama's change, maybe slightly different flavors, maybe different aisles, but in the same supermarket."

Eddie Snead made the shortest pitch: "Obama, Obama, Obama." That prompted Ben Kirk to offer a more elaborate defense, saying that the first time in his 32-year old life he believed, "There may be a future for me if we get some change going on."

Clinton supporter Pat McCoy sounded a little like the senator herself as she detailed her 35-years of government experience. "I'm a good bureaucrat, believe me," she said.

Then, she sounded a little blunter than Clinton. "I can honestly say that in my adult life this country has never been in such dire straits. On every front--there's no point in making a list--we're in deep shit," she said. "Hillary Clinton is the only one who can fix this mess."

And finally, the undecideds got a chance to voice their concerns. Michael Goros, sporting a black jacket with a red silk-screened image of Bush's face and the words "war criminal," spoke of how he had initially backed Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio), and now didn't know where to turn.

"I don't want the corporate-sponsored candidate," he lamented.

Goros switched to Obama, as did Vuthoori.

Then, Kirk announced the final tally: 78 for Obama, 27 for Clinton, and 2 Undecided. Out of the 11 total delegates headed to the King County convention in April, Obama won eight compared to Clinton's three.

Vuthoori left feeling comfortable with her vote. "He's less divisive in the country, and he's more humanistic," she said of Obama. "Clinton's great, but she seems more capitalistic, more corporate. Ultimately it was more of a gut decision than an intellectual one."

Barack Obama

"Democrats Divided, Even at Dinner Table"

WaPo:

Jennifer Robinson's husband remained quiet when she lauded the virtues of Sen. Barack Obama, explaining how the Illinois Democrat's vision inspired her and gave her hope, how he, if anyone, could bring bipartisanship to a split country.

Paul Robinson never hushed his wife, never tried to dissuade her. He simply declared in an e-mail this week during a business trip that he would vote for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) for president.

"I sat there for a moment. Then I just wrote back 'Wow' in all caps, 'WOW,' " said Jennifer Robinson, 36, a politically active Fairfax City homemaker. "Just to see it in writing, to see it so final. You have a rumbling and a thought, but that shattered everything."

Just as Super Tuesday revealed a divide among the nation's Democrats, many households are finding loyalties split as the capital region prepares to vote in Tuesday's primaries.

Political experts measure the divide along gender, racial and ethnic lines. But a look at families shows the unbounded complexities of individual political identity. Within homes, lines have been drawn, sides picked. Paul Robinson, 37, a black man, chose the white female candidate. His wife, who also is black, chose the African American male candidate.

Political passions also divide generations.

Michele Chapman, 52, drove up to her house in Alexandria a few days ago and found two signs planted on her lawn: one for Clinton, whom she supports, the other for Obama, whom her son backs.

"I wish I smoked at that time, so I could get a lighter out" to burn the Obama sign, Chapman joked. The house is next to a traffic light, she said, so most people who stop see the signs. "They are sitting there saying, 'These people are confused.' "

As a woman who raised two children alone, Chapman said she likes Clinton because she has done a lot for children and lower-income families.

"I just feel she has more experience. She's had 35 years working for change," said Chapman, a retired school administrative assistant. As she spoke, her son, John, 26, sat next to her, laughing and shaking his head, a move that did not go unnoticed. "See, it just makes him crazy," she said.

John Chapman, president of Alexandria Young Democrats, said he and his mother were united in support of Clinton until he was drawn by Obama's energy and message.

"It's something new. What we've been doing in the past hasn't worked," he said.

As the director of a Fairfax after-school program, Chapman said he sees how the educational system is broken, and he believes that Obama would be the one to overhaul it. Clinton, he said, is more likely to maintain the status quo.

A few years ago, John Chapman was a gamer who spent hours in front of the television and cared little about politics, he said. Now he is immersed. As results from Super Tuesday rolled in, Chapman phoned his mother at midnight to brag about Obama taking more states.

"Here I am thinking he's been in an accident," she said. "He knew I was asleep. He knew I was getting up early the next morning. He's like, 'He's beating her, he's beating her.' "

The next morning, she fired back about Clinton taking more delegates.

The Garcias, Bolivian Americans who live in McLean, watch political coverage on separate televisions in separate rooms. Hortensia Garcia, 65, is for Obama now that former senator John Edwards is out. Her husband of 49 years, Zenon Garcia, 73, is for Clinton.

Zenon Garcia said that with the country in a critical economic moment, with the national debt about $9 trillion, he believes that Clinton's knowledge and willingness to compromise are needed.

"When we have these types of problems, can Obama manage it? My answer is no," he said in Spanish. He added that he agrees with his wife that Obama is intelligent and a good speaker but said he would make a better preacher than president.

"Please," his wife replied. "This man is going to run a country, not a church."

Whoever wins, Zenon Garcia said, it's going to be close.

"When you see two boxers in the ring, and you see a lightweight with a heavyweight, you know the heavyweight is going to win," he said. "In this case, you have two equal weights."

Hortensia Garcia said that Clinton is strong but that Obama has more enthusiasm. "Even though they may be equal weights," she said, "he'll win because he has a lot more strength."

Jennifer Robinson does not hide her political allegiances and, in truth, is loud about them. A framed picture of her and former Virginia governor Mark R. Warner (D) hangs in her office. A pile of yard signs for state Sen. J. Chapman "Chap" Petersen (D-Fairfax) sits in her driveway. The back of her minivan is dotted with Democratic-themed bumper stickers.

She said she knew that her husband was a strong supporter of New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, now out of the race, and that he liked Edwards. But to find out that Clinton would get his vote surprised her.

"I really did think at the last minute he'd see the light," she said, laughing. "I kind of assume he always agrees with me, but I'm finding out that's not a good assumption."

Paul Robinson sent the e-mail from Detroit in reply to a query from his wife. "I'm an Obama girl," she wrote. "Are you an [Obama] boy?"

That he wasn't, he said, came down to who could best play the political game.

"Hope is great," he said. "But I'd rather have someone who has been around the block."

He remembered casting his first vote ever for Bill Clinton, impressed that he "wasn't afraid of going to black neighborhoods and embracing people who didn't look like him." The couple keeps an autographed picture of the former president in the home office.

Whichever Democrat wins the nomination, Jennifer Robinson said, she revels in the possibility that a woman or an African American could win the presidency. "Susan B. Anthony and Martin Luther King are probably up there dancing a jig together," she said.

The couple's daughter Sydney, 6, the oldest of their three children, said she had heard of Clinton and Obama. When asked which she liked better, she played it smart.

"I don't know," she said, hopping downstairs to watch the Wiggles. "I can't decide."

Howie P.S.: Puzzling headline: "Obama leads Clinton by only 2 delegates." HRC's been besting Obama forever and now he's "only" AHEAD?

Barack Obama

"LIVE from KeyArena" (with video)

The NPI Blog live-blogged the event today.

Seattle P-I, "Thousands pack KeyArena to see Obama."

Seattle Times, "Barack Obama draws thousands, but hundreds can't get in KeyArena."

KING 5 tv, video. FULL SPEECH.

Barack Obama spoke to more than 17,000 people who filled Seattle's Key Arena. The crowd cheered as Obama promised better health care, a more-balanced economy and improved education.

KIRO 7 tv, video, "Gregoire, On Her Presidential Choice:"

Prior to Friday's announcement that Chris Gregoire will endorse Barack Obama for president, the governor spoke with KIRO 7 Eyewitness News Senior Political Reporter Essex Porter about her choice.

Barack Obama

"BREAKING: Gregoire to appear at Obama's KeyArena rally, will endorse his candidacy"

Howie Intro: It's a little old by now, but here it is:

Andrew @NPI blog:

After several weeks of rumors, it appears that what I suggested just a bit ago on AM KPOJ in Portland is now true: sources tell us that Governor Chris Gregoire is endorsing the candidacy of Senator Barack Obama and is scheduled to appear at Obama's midday KeyArena rally in just a few hours.

(We'll be covering the rally live starting at kickoff; check back here for updated coverage of the event, which should be a lot of fun).

Gregoire's decision to back Obama puts her in good company; fellow Democratic governors Janet Napalitanto of Arizona and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas are also backing Obama. Representative Adam Smith of Washington's 9th District, meanwhile, is already a key figure in the local Obama effort, having signed on early.

The state's two other top Democrats - Senators Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray - are backing Hillary Clinton, though neither is serving as a co chair to the campaign (Jay Inslee, Ron Sims, and Gary Locke are Clinton's Washington co-chairs). While Clinton recently picked up the endorsement of Representative Norm Dicks, Gregoire's decision to support Obama is huge because it gives him another high profile superdelegate from a state where Clinton has been snapping them up.

Barack Obama

"Politics in Washington State Are Lively Though Puzzling"

NY Times:

SEATTLE — Loggers, bloggers, farmers and philanthropists. Political relevance does not come around often for the distinctive mix of constituencies that keeps things lively here in the other Washington. So this Saturday, when presidential caucuses will be held statewide, people plan to make the most of it.

Turnout is expected to be high, regardless of the usual February forecast for much of the state: rain. About 100,000 people participated in the caucuses in 2004. Twice that many could show up this time, according to some of the bolder predictions, and political experts note particular passion among Democrats over issues including the war in Iraq, health care and the environment.

The mystery, however, is which groups of voters will show up on Saturday in the biggest numbers — and whether they can figure out the rules.

“That’s what we’re working on right now, getting our Hillary supporters out to caucus because our base, women, are not really Democratic party activists who go to caucuses,” said Linda Mitchell, president of the National Women’s Political Caucus of Washington and a backer of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. “They’re usually working, or they are taking care of children.”

“Plus,” Ms. Mitchell said, “we’ve got this other factor with the primary that’s also going on. There’s a lot of people who aren’t engaged in the process who think they’ve already voted for Hillary Clinton.”

Come again? If Ms. Mitchell sounds as if she is shrewdly trying to limit expectations for Mrs. Clinton, she also has a point.

Things here are mighty confusing.

While Democrats and Republicans are holding party caucuses on Saturday, people can also vote in a statewide primary on Feb. 19. Mail-in ballots for the primary, which are widely used, went out to voters last month. Voters can participate in both the caucuses and the primary.

State officials have hoped the February primary, first approved in 1988, would allow more people to participate, but the parties control the awarding of delegates. The Democrats will award 78 of their 97 delegates based on Saturday’s caucuses, with the rest determined by so-called super delegates, not the primary, as has been the practice for decades.

Republicans offer a different twist. About half of their 40 delegates will be awarded at the caucuses, and most of the rest will be from the results of the primary. Oh, and Republican delegates assigned at the caucus can decide to switch to another candidate later.

“I describe it as a fluid process,” said Luke Esser, chairman of the Washington State Republican Party.

With the withdrawal of Mitt Romney from the Republican race on Thursday making Senator John McCain the overwhelming favorite for the nomination, the Democratic caucuses here are drawing the most interest.

Mrs. Clinton, of New York, spoke Thursday at a rally on the Seattle waterfront. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois is set to make two appearances on Friday, one at Key Arena beneath the Space Needle, and at “an alternative energy event as well, less of a big crowd thing, more a policy discussion,” said Representative Adam Smith, who is chairman of the Obama campaign in Washington. Mr. Obama’s wife, Michelle, plans to visit Spokane on Friday.

Mr. Obama has raised nearly twice as much money in the state as Mrs. Clinton, and experts say his campaign’s success at energizing and organizing certain blocs of voters for caucuses in other states could continue here. Mr. Obama is hoping to attract environmentalists, young and first-time voters (including those among the 40,000 students at the University of Washington), as well as well-educated, often wealthier professionals in Seattle and its suburbs and some independents and Republicans.

“We would expect if those trends of education and income and age hold, he probably would have an advantage here,” said Matt Barreto, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Washington who helps run the nonpartisan Washington Poll.

Galen Main, 23, a graduate student in social work, said she was cynical about politics before she learned about Mr. Obama. Now she is volunteering for his campaign.

“Obama can get more done because he’ll get more people involved,” she said. “That’s the only way we can hold government accountable is to have the masses really care.”

Mrs. Clinton has deep loyalty here among working-class Democrats and women, who vote in larger numbers than men and have helped elect the state’s two female senators and governor.

The Clinton campaign also hopes voters in this technology-centered, trade-dependent state remember how the economy expanded under former President Bill Clinton’s administration.

“I think this is going to be a whole lot more about how good life was when we had a Democratic president and ‘remember how you in Washington State were able to build an economy that’s been able to withstand all the gloom and doom we’re seeing right now nationally,’ ” said Cathy Allen, a longtime Democratic strategist here who is on the steering committee for the Clinton campaign.

Mrs. Clinton has collected endorsements from some of the most prominent Democrats in the state, including Senators Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray and the popular King County executive Ron Sims. Mayor Greg Nickels of Seattle and more than two dozen state lawmakers are supporting Mr. Obama.

Jay Ubelhart, a ferry boat deck hand and a member of the Inlandboatmen’s Union of the Pacific, said he was interested in Mr. Obama but liked Mrs. Clinton’s health care plans more. He said he also worried that Mr. Obama’s race would prevent voters elsewhere from supporting him in a general election.

“It’s the ‘ideas’ campaign,” Mr. Ubelhart said, referring to the Obama campaign, “but the object is to get a Democratic president into the White House.”

Howie P.S.: In his Seattle P-I column today, Joel Connelly indirectly chides the Clintons, quoting long-time Dem Tom Keefe:

"As much as I respect Hillary Clinton's intellect, I think F. Scott Fitzgerald put it best in 'The Great Gatsby' when he wrote, 'They were careless people, Tom and Daisy -- they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.' The same could be said of Bill and Hillary."

And the Seattle Times story today ends with a quote from Congressman Adam Smith, D-Tacoma, head of Obama's campaign here:

Clinton and Obama don't fit neatly into the categories of insider and insurgent, or as one who appeals to the heart and one to the head.

And Obama will not concede the electability fight. "The pragmatic choice here is Senator Obama," Smith said. "I've heard Senator Clinton saying she's been pounded on for 16 years, she's been vetted where Barack has not.

"That's true, you've been pounded on and somewhere between 50 and 51 percent of the country — depending on the poll — have decided that under no circumstances would they vote for you."

The Last Word is from The Stranger: "Caucusing Is Easy."

Barack Obama

"Edwards, Clinton, and Obama debate about Lobbyists" (video)

vexom5, video (05:10):

In YearlyKos 07 the candidates debated lobbyists, whether or not they should take money from them, and if they have an influence.

Howie P.S.: I wish Ben Smith would link to this. And for all those who decry Obama's "lack of details," delve into this 64 page treatise: "Blueprint for Change: Plan for America." It's all substance, specifics, and details.

Barack Obama

"Obama: The Shock of the Red"

Tim Eagan, NY Times op-ed:

Take a look at what happened on Tuesday in the nearly all-white counties of Idaho, a place where the Aryan Nations once placed a boot print of hate — “the international headquarters of the white race,” as they called it.

The neo-Nazis are long gone. But in Kootenai County, where the extremists were holed up for several decades, a record number of Democrats trudged through heavy snow on Super Duper Tuesday to help pick the next president. Guess what: Senator Barack Obama took 81 percent of Kootenai County caucus voters, matching his landslide across the state. He won all but a single county.

The runaway victory came after a visit by Obama last Saturday, when 14,169 people filled the Taco Bell Arena in Boise to hear him speak – the largest crowd ever to fill the space, for any event. It was the biggest political rally the state has seen in more than 50 years.

“And they told me there were no Democrats in Idaho,” Obama said.

Okay, so Idaho is the prime rib of Red America. Ditto Utah, where Obama beat Senator Hillary Clinton 56 percent to 39 percent on Tuesday, including a 2-1 win in arguably the most Republican community in America – Provo and suburbs, a holdout of Bush dead-enders. Tom Brady will date a nun before these states vote Democratic in a general election.

But those numbers, and exit polling across the nation, make a case for Obama’s electability and the inroads he has made into places where Democrats are harder to find than a decent bagel. Yes, Hillary-hatred is part of it. But something much bigger is going on among independents and white males, something that can’t all be attributed to fear of a powerful woman in a pantsuit.

Having gone through their Hope versus Experience argument, Democrats are moving on to the numbers phase, looking for advantages in the fall. If they want to parse the Geography of Hope, they can do no better than study what happened in red counties on Tuesday.

Overall, Obama won some big, general election swing states: Colorado, Missouri, Minnesota, and a tie in New Mexico, where they may still be counting votes from the 2004 election. All will be crucial in deciding the next president.

His victory in Colorado, by a 2-1 margin, defied most predictions. Four times as many Democrats turned out as were expected, typical of the passion level elsewhere. In Anchorage, Alaska, for example, traffic was backed for nearly a mile from people trying to get into a middle school to become part of an Obama avalanche.

But back to Colorado. Obama won the liberal enclaves, as expected, but then he nearly ran the table in the western part of the state – ranch and mining country — and he did it with more than Brokeback Mountain Democrats. In booming, energy-rich Garfield County, for instance, Obama beat Clinton 72 percent to 27 percent.

“We won in places nobody thought we could win,” an exultant Federico Pena, the former Denver mayor, told a victory crowd on Tuesday night. Obama’s audience a few days earlier – more than 18,000 — was so big that thousands who couldn’t get in huddled on a frozen lacrosse field to hear him.

Now broaden the picture and look at the vote among white males, traditionally the hardest sell for a Democrat. While losing California, Obama won white men in the Golden State, 55 to 35, according to exit polls, and white men in New Mexico, 59-38.

Looking ahead to Saturday, when Washington State, Nebraska, and Louisiana hold contests, Obama should add another three states to the 13 he won on Tuesday. They’re all caucus states, each with distinct advantages for Obama.

His problem – and it’s a big one – is among Latino voters, and older women. He got crushed by Hillary among Hispanics in California and New Mexico. To win the West, Latinos have to be in your camp.

Only slothful thinkers still view Democrats in the West as Prius-driving latte-sippers along the Left Coast. The larger story is about home-grown identity. Eight of the 11 Western States have Democratic governors. The Democrats picked up two Senate seats in the West in the last two national elections, and are poised to pick up two more this year, in Colorado and New Mexico.

Early on, Obama took a chance on the West, sending paid staffers to places like Boise, Idaho and Wenatchee, Washington. And the Alaska office for Obama – that was a knee-slapper at the time, but no one’s laughing now. He won the Last Frontier state by a 3-1 margin Tuesday.

Obama has made cynics wilt, and stirred the heart of long-dead politicos in places where Democrats haven’t had a pulse in years. Cecil Andrus, the eagle-headed eminence of Idaho, a former governor and Democratic cabinet member, nearly lost his voice introducing Obama in Boise on Saturday. He recalled a time when he was a young lumberjack who drove down the Clearwater Valley to see Jack Kennedy speak in Lewiston, a day that changed his life.

“I’m older now, some would suggest in the twilight of a mediocre political career,” Andrus said. “I, like you, can still be inspired. I can still hope.”

This kicked off the second biggest political rally in Idaho history. And the first? That was when President Dwight Eisenhower came to visit. Last week his granddaughter, Susan Eisenhower, made a small bit of family history on her own. She said that if Obama is the nominee, “this lifelong Republican will work to get him elected.”

Barack Obama

"Democratic dead-heat 'not good news' says Dean"

Agence France Press:

Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean on Wednesday voiced concern over the prospect of a brokered convention at the end of the party's White House nominating contests.

"The idea that we can afford to have a big fight at the convention and then win the race in the next eight weeks, I think, is not a good scenario," Dean said according to excerpts of an interview with NY1 television.

In state nominating contests so far, no clear winner has emerged among Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the party's nomination ahead of November's presidential vote to replace George W. Bush in the White House.

"I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April. But if we don't, then we're going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement," said Dean, who failed in his bid for the party's nomination in 2004.

"Because I don't think we can afford to have a brokered convention -- that would not be good news for either party."

A brokered convention has not been seen in decades, and harkens back to an era of shady political deal-making when powerbrokers and cash kings -- instead of regular voters -- chose one candidate over another at a raucous, smoke-filled convention hall.

The comments by Dean highlighted the rising tensions among Democrats as rivals Obama and Clinton fight bitterly for delegate votes ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August, at which a nominee is officially selected.

For more than 50 years, each party has selected delegates who favor one nominee over another by a significant margin well ahead of the convention, which exists mainly for ceremonial and celebratory purposes.

The last conventions that required more than one ballot to designate nominees were in 1948 for the Republicans and 1952 for the Democrats.

Barack Obama

"Barack Obama in Seattle, WA"

BarackObama.com:

Join Barack Obama for a special Stand for Change Rally in Seattle, Washington on Friday, February 8th. The event will be free and open to the public.

Stand for Change Rally with Barack Obama

Key Arena
305 Harrison Street
Seattle, WA 98109

February 8, 2008
Doors Open: 11:00 a.m.

The event is free and open to the public, but an RSVP is encouraged.

For security reasons, do not bring bags. No signs or banners permitted.

Howie P.S.: RSVP here.

Barack Obama

"Not a tie"

Markos:

We still don't know who won the delegate count, but it should be obvious that the race has shifted and that the Clinton campaign is reeling and Obama is now the front-runner.

Obama is going to lead in pledged delegates after Super Tuesday, something that the Clinton campaign does not dispute:

Hillary advisers also disputed the Obama camp's claim of a lead among delegates, arguing that they were ahead when you factor in superdelegates.

Well, whoop dee doo that you lead in super delegates, considering that most of those enodrsements were racked up when your campaign was the clear frontrunner. After this weekend, when three of the four states, and 126 of the 185 pledged delegates, are determined via caucuses (and the rest are in primaries with high African-American populations), Obama will stretch out his pledged delegate lead further. On Tuesday, no matter who actually wins the popular vote in Virginia, Obama will stretch out his pledged delegate lead even further than that by racking up large wins in D.C. and probably Maryland. And then, on February 19th, there is another caucus in Hawaii, and a primary in the non-partisan registration state of Obama's neighboring Wisconsin. Yes indeed, the February calendar is very favorable to Obama.

A campaign that is now on course to be down by more than 100 pledged delegates in two weeks didn't "tie." Just like Mitt Romney, any campaign that is talking about changing delegate allocation rules didn't "tie." A campaign that is plugging its website to try and raise money didn't "tie." A campaign that talks about stopping the momentum currently enjoyed by its opponent didn't "tie." That is a campaign back on its heels. As I wrote last night, this was not a tie, and Obama clearly has the edge.

Here is my pre-Super Tuesday look at what each campaign needed to do yesterday, and what would follow:

For Obama, his task for Tuesday is simply to survive. He needs to finish within 200 delegates of Clinton to keep it close, because the rest of the month is tailor made for Obama -- Louisiana primary and Nebraska and Washington caucuses on Saturday, February 9th, Maine caucuses on Sunday February 10, the Beltway Primary on February 12 -- DC, Maryland, and Virginia, and Hawaii and Wisconsin the next Tuesday, February 19. Of those states, only Maine might prove kind to Hillary (though we haven't had any polling since October of last year, when Hillary had a commanding 46-10 lead). The rest -- 563 delegates' worth of contests, will favor Obama heavily.

So Hillary's task is to defeat Obama decisively on Tuesday. If she can't manage that, then her plan B is to survive February to fight in March. On Tuesday the 4th, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont go to the polls. Vermont appears the most competitive right now, though that will change with a couple of weeks to campaign in these states. Winning Ohio, in particular will be important for propaganda purposes.

Tiny Wyoming will go on Saturday March 8, with its 18 delegates perhaps actually mattering. Mississippi, with its 40 delegates, should be Obama territory on the 11th. Then...

Absolutely nothing for six weeks until Pennsylvania on April 22. Shit. Atrios and Booman may actually have a say this primary. How scary is that? And those 188 delegates will loom large. In fact, this is the only contest of significance (not including Guam) for an entire two months. It'll be huge.

After that, another two weeks pass until Tuesday May 6, when 218 delegates are at stake in Indiana and North Carolina. A week later, 39 delegates will be decided in West Virginia, a week after that on the 20th, Kentucky and Oregon, and that closes out May. Given the demographics of NC (heavily African American, lots of creative class thanks to the Research Triangle), that'll be Obama territory. Oregon Democrats are heavily "creative class", so lean that one toward Obama. Beats me about West Virginia and Kentucky, though West Virginia was competitive for Obama the last time it was polled in April of 2007, back when he wasn't competitive anywhere (he trailed 37-22, with Edwards getting 19), so that bodes well. Meanwhile, Kentucky has never been polled for the presidential contest, so who knows.

So what's left? Two weeks later, on June 3, Montana and South Dakota select 47 total delegates, and then that Saturday, Puerto Rico closes things out with its 63 delegates up for grabs.

So how will this shake out? Beats me. But task one is for Obama to survive this Tuesday. If he does, task two is for Hillary to survive this month. If she does, then they both have to survive the mini-Super Tuesday on March 4th. If they do, this thing goes to Pennsylvania. Or to North Carolina.

Or to the convention.

Well, Clinton came nowhere near what she needed to do to build a strong delegate lead (and super delegates can change their mind, they're not locked in). Obama needed to survive, and he did more than that -- he outright won the night.

Now his job is to finish off Clinton. If he can rack up a full month of 20%+ victories the rest of this month, he does just that.

People accused me of playing the expectations game before Super Tuesday by lowering the bar to Obama. Hogwash, I'm calling them as I see them. And that last paragraph is proof -- do you think the Obama spin is that he needs to sweep the rest of the month by 20% margins to knock Clinton out? Obviously not.

But if Obama does that, Clinton's money will dry up and the momentum toward the March contests will create an Obama tsunami.

Obama accomplished what he needed to do to survive on Super Tuesday. Now we get to see if Clinton can do what she needs to do to survive February.

p.s. Memo to Penn: Clinton is the establishment candidate. Nice try though.

p.p.s. I'm rerunning this stat Laura wrote up yesterday because I still find it incredible:

States Obama won with (so far) more than 60% of the vote:

Alaska (over 70%)
Colorado
Georgia
Idaho (over 70%)
Illinois
Kansas (over 70%)
Minnesota
North Dakota

States Clinton won with (so far) more than 60% of the vote:

Arkansas

Barack Obama

"Bill Clinton is out; Hillary is coming to Seattle"

Joel Connelly (Strange Bedfellows, Seattle P-I political blog):

Sen. Hillary Clinton will campaign in Seattle on Thursday night, in an 11th hour substitution for what had been a planned stopover by ex-President Bill Clinton.

The switch indicates the Clinton campaign is serious about contesting Washington's Democratic caucuses on Saturday, Feb. 9th.

Sen. Clinton is tentatively scheduled to appear Thursday, from 8 p.m. to 9 p.m., at Pier 30 on the Seattle waterfront.

Instead of coming to a temperate, rainy Seattle, ex-President Clinton will campaign for his wife in Maine.

The former president has been under attack from liberal commentators for his harsh, negative attacks on Sen. Barack Obama during the Nevada caucuses and South Carolina primary. He was assigned a much lower "SuperDuper Tuesday" role, campaigning in Arkansas and Tennessee, and visiting churches in California.

Sen. Clinton was here last October, speaking to a Democratic Party fundraiser and holding three $2,300-a-person fundraisers.

The Clintons have used Washington as a kind of political ATM machine in recent years. It has been years since they have held a free public appearance in Washington State.

Sen. Barack Obama is scheduled to appear in Seattle on Friday.

"Help Decide the President on February 9th" (video)

wademocrats, with video (02:18):

After Super Tuesday the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is close! At the Washington State Caucus on February 9th you will have a huge role in deciding the next president, we checked out some of the Super Tuesday parties to see how people feel about the race.

Howie P.S.: My old pal Dwight knows how to party! As I was posting this, I was robo-called by the Clinton campaign about her visit here Thursday.
Barack Obama

"How to Celebrate Bob Marley's Birthday"

eHow.com:

Bob Marley, born February 6, 1945, is internationally recognized as the Godfather of reggae. While he did not invent this timeless form, he became reggae's seminal figure. Kick back, mon, and relax to the sounds of reggae in celebration of Marley's birthday.

Instructions

Difficulty: Easy

Things You'll Need

• CD Players
• Jamaican Beer
• Sage
• Incense
• Bob Marley CDs

Steps

1

Step One

Take a trip to your local library to do some reading about the man revered by Bob Marley and all other Rastafarians: Haile Selassie, former Emperor of Ethiopia.

2

Step Two

Book a trip to the Caribbean paradise of Jamaica, Marley's home and birthplace.

3

Step Three

Play Bob's debut release track, "Judge Not," as a tribute to the beginning of his prosperous and uplifting career.

4

Step Four

Take a stab at reading the palms of your friends and family. Prior to becoming a singer and musician, Marley was a well-known local palm reader.

5

Step Five

Purchase hemp-manufactured clothing in celebration of the herb that inspired Bob throughout his life.

6

Step Six

Pop open a Red Stripe, Jamaica's favorite beer, in tribute to Marley's homeland.

Howie P.S.: My daughter had to remind me it was Bob Marley's birthday today, even though I have been a reggae fan for over 30 years and saw him perform on two occasions.

"Candidates' spouses to visit Spokane Friday"

KXLY:

SPOKANE -- Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama will be campaigning in Spokane on Friday.

The Barack Obama campaign says that Michelle Obama will campaign for her husband in Spokane on Friday, and the Spokane County Democrats confirm that Bill Clinton will be in town the same day.

The annoucement comes the day after Super Tuesday - the closest thing the U.S. has to a national primary - but one in which the democratic candidates still found themselves neck-and-neck after all the votes had been counted.

Obama claimed a "big victory" in Tuesday's voting after winning 13 states. However, Clinton took home the top two prizes - New York and California - leaving her with a slight overall delegate lead.

Partially due to the fact that the democratic party splits delegates proportionally within a state, neither candidate was able to garner enough votes on Super Tuesday to pull ahead of the other candidate by a statistically significant margin.

While Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama will be in Spokane Friday, the candidates themselves are also expected to visit Washington. Barack Obama has already announced a campaign stop in Seattle for the end of the week, and Hillary Clinton is expected to make a similar appearance.

Washington - often a political afterthought considering that the nomination can be all but sewn up with the results of Super Tuesday - suddenly finds itself as a key nomination state. Louisiana and Nebraska will also hold democratic candidate voting on Saturday, however Washington is expected to be the most aggressively courted as it has 97 delegates at stake, by far the most among the three states.

As of noon Wednesday, no times or locations have been released for Michelle Obama or Bill Clinton's stops in Spokane. However, the Obama campaign did note that Michelle's appearance will be free and open to the public, and it is expected that Clinton's visit will be the same.

Barack Obama

"State's largest labor union backs Obama"

Seattle Times:

OLYMPIA — Sen. Barack Obama's campaign announced today it has been endorsed by the state's largest labor group — the Service Employee's International Union (SEIU).

The endorsement could be a big boost for Obama as he heads into the Democratic Party's precinct caucuses on Saturday.

Congressman Adam Smith of Tacoma, Obama's state chairman, announced the endorsement this afternoon in a conference call with reporters.

"Nobody makes a bigger difference in organizing campaigns in this state than SEIU," Smith said.

The union, which has about 100,000 members statewide, had previously endorsed former Sen. John Edwards. But after a dismal showing in the early contests, Edwards dropped out of the race last week.

Leaders from the SEIU's five major locals in Washington met Tuesday to decide whether to throw its support to Obama or his Democratic rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

"It ended up being a unanimous decision by all of our locals," said Adam Glickman, spokesman for SEIU Local 775. "Obviously, there are two very strong candidates, both of whom are vast improvements over the current office holder."

Glickman said the union would be making tens of thousands of calls to its members over the next three days to urge support for Obama. He said the calls also are intended to make sure members understand that — in order to have a say in choosing Democratic delegates — they have to participate in the caucuses.

The Democratic Party is allocating all of its delegates through the caucuses and is ignoring the results of the state's Feb. 19 presidential primary.

Clinton, meanwhile, has been getting a lot of support from the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, which represents about 25,000 workers in this state.

In fact, the Clinton campaign is using the union's offices in South Park as a makeshift campaign headquarters.

And for the past week the union has been using its 22-line phone bank to round up Clinton supporters for the caucuses.

Barack Obama

"CLINTON LOANS HERSELF $5 MILLION, STAFF SKIPS PAY [UPDATED]"

Ari Melber (The Nation):

In a post-Super Tuesday bombshell, Hillary Clinton announced on Wednesday that she loaned her campaign $5 million last month. Spokesman Howard Wolfson told The Atlantic:

Late last month Senator Clinton loaned her campaign $5 million.The loan illustrates Sen. Clinton's commitment to this effort and to ensuring that our campaign has the resources it needs to compete and win across this nation.

The timing suggests that the campaign has been much tighter on cash than most observers realized. If Clinton had the resources to compete through February, she could have delayed the loan by a few days, and federal rules would not have required its disclosure until March. But announcing the loan now -- after narrowly losing Tuesday's delegate battle and watching Obama raise $32 million from over 220,000 new donors in January -- projects financial weakness at a pivotal time for Clinton.

The loan will also likely stoke increased scrutiny of both Clintons' financial records. The Politico recently reported that Bill Clinton has "implied that he would not use his own funds to support his wife's candidacy," criticizing policies that allow politicians to self-finance their campaigns. Yet Clinton backers are sure to emphasize that the Democrats last presidential nominee, John Kerry, infused his flagging campaign with a loan before he roared back to win the primary.

Update: Time's Mark Halperin reports a rumor that I've heard circulating among campaign sources for weeks: Top Clinton aides are working without pay to save the campaign money. Hard times call for hard measures. While this is generally a bad sign for a campaign's bank account, it's not always a bad thing. It can separate loyalists from fair-weather operatives and turn bloated, consultant-run operations into lean, focused machines. Just ask John McCain, who pulled a similar maneuver earlier this cycle.

"Obama Claims 9-Delegate Win for Super Tuesday"

Ari Melber (The Nation):

Barack Obama's Campaign wants to make his Super Tuesday victory official.

Campaign Manager David Plouffe says that Obama won 9 more delegates than Hillary Clinton on Tuesday, based on a pledged delegate estimate conducted overnight by analysts in the campaign's Chicago "boiler room." Obama won 845 delegates to Clinton's 836, according to Obama's data team, which includes Democratic targeting buff Ken Strasma and delegate expert Jeff Berman, who caused the AP to reverse its Nevada delegate estimate a few weeks back.

"By winning a majority of delegates and a majority of the states, Barack Obama won an important Super Tuesday victory over Senator Clinton in the closest thing we have to a national primary," Plouffe told reporters on Wednesday. Senior Clinton strategists depicted Clinton as an energized underdog in a media conference call on Wednesday, contending that voters are rejecting Obama's "establishment" campaign.

The Clinton Campaign has not released its own estimate, so Obama's spreadsheet may be all we have to go on for a while. These numbers refer to Super Tuesday only -- not to the total count of delegates from prior states or the party's mercurial, "elite contingent" of superdelegates.

Barack Obama

"Clinton, Obama chase next big prize: Washington state"

Seattle Times:

As the Super Tuesday votes were being tallied, Democratic rivals Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama were setting their sights on the next big prize: Washington.

After lagging behind Obama in getting a campaign up and running here, Clinton on Tuesday sent in a swarm of campaign staff from other states to help prepare for Saturday's precinct caucuses.

Obama's campaign announced Tuesday evening that he will make a campaign appearance Friday in Seattle.

Clinton also is expected to make a stop here. And her top campaign surrogate, former President Bill Clinton, is scheduled to appear Thursday night in Seattle and Friday morning in Tacoma.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain — the biggest winner Tuesday — still has no paid staff in Washington and no plans to come here before the GOP caucuses. Instead, his campaign appears more focused on the state's Feb. 19 primary, where he has a better chance of pulling in independent voters.

Could that open the door in Washington for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who had a surprisingly strong showing Tuesday? Or could this be the state where former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney revives his sagging campaign?

After dueling to what appears to be a draw in the 24 states that voted Tuesday, Clinton and Obama are digging in for a protracted battle for delegates that could last well into the spring.

"This race is a tie," said state Democratic Party Chairman Dwight Pelz. "This will be in play for at least a month, maybe all the way to the convention."

Two other states — Louisiana and Nebraska — are holding Democratic contests on Saturday. But Washington — with its 97 Democratic delegates, including 80 who will be selected through the caucuses and state convention — has nearly twice as much at stake as those two states combined.

State party officials are bracing for what could be an overwhelming turnout. Pelz is predicting Democrats will easily surpass the record 100,000 people who showed up for the caucuses in 2004 — a year in which the race was largely decided by the time it came to Washington.

It appears less is at stake here this weekend on the Republican side.

Washington's Republican Party is selecting only about half of its 40 delegates through the caucus process. There will be more than twice as many Republican delegates up for grabs Saturday in Louisiana and Kansas.

The rest of Washington's GOP delegates will be allocated through the state's Feb. 19 presidential primary — an event the state Democratic Party is ignoring.

McCain's campaign has already said he will not be coming to Washington this week.

For the past few weeks, while most of the attention has gone to the Super Tuesday states, the campaigns have been quietly gearing up in Washington. Most of the campaigns last month began hosting caucus training around the state. Some recently launched aggressive phone-bank and doorbelling operations.

Obama, who has raised nearly twice as much money in Washington as any other candidate, for weeks had the biggest field operation here. A well-organized group of grass-roots Obama supporters has been rounding up volunteers.

The campaign recently brought in paid staff from other states and now has offices in Seattle, Spokane, Everett, Bellingham and Vancouver, and paid staff in Wenatchee and the Tri-Cities.

"They're opening offices faster than Starbucks," Pelz said.

Clinton, meanwhile, had been relying on an all-volunteer effort here. But this week the national campaign sent in 22 paid staffers from Super Tuesday states.

"It's a huge shot in the arm," said Jim Kainber, who had been running Clinton's campaign here. "They know what needs to be done, who to call. ... This is a ground fight. It's about finding people and dragging people to the caucuses."

Having spent seven years as executive director of the state Democratic Party, Kainber probably knows as much as anyone how each precinct ticks. To offset that advantage, Kainber said, the Obama campaign needed to bring in lots of paid staff early.

But conventional wisdom could get trampled if hordes of new voters turn out for Obama, as happened last month in the Iowa caucuses.

On the Republican side, almost anything seems possible. Washington's Republican caucuses have a history of favoring insurgent candidates — most notably in 1988, when they were dominated by supporters of televangelist Pat Robertson.

"There were church buses and vans pulling up at the caucuses," recalled Chris Vance, a former state GOP chairman who was campaigning that year for Bob Dole.

Could that happen this year for Huckabee? A former Baptist preacher, he is a favorite among evangelical voters.

But Pastor Joe Fuiten, Huckabee's state chairman, said the campaign has nowhere near as big of a presence here as Robertson had. The cash-strapped campaign has no paid staff in Washington and has instead been relying on the online networking site Meetup.com and other grass-roots efforts.

Fuiten said he thinks Romney, a Mormon, could be this year's Robertson. A wealthy businessman who has pumped millions of dollars of his own money into the campaign, Romney has raised more money here than any other Republican.

"I think you'll find the Mormons will be out in force this weekend," Fuiten said. "And you can win the caucuses with a handful of people."

Toby Nixon, a former state legislator who is helping run Romney's campaign, said he is not aware of any organized get-out-the-vote effort by the church. But he said Mormons make up a large portion of the 20,000 or so voters the campaign has contacted.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who campaigned in Seattle last week, could also make a strong showing Saturday. Paul's passionate anti-war, libertarian message has struck a chord with many young voters here.

Paul, who has five paid campaign organizers in the state, was the top Republican fundraiser here in the final quarter of last year. Meetup.com lists dozens of Paul groups in Washington, and his supporters frequently show up to wave signs at other candidates' events.

McCain, meanwhile, has some of the state's biggest-name Republicans on his side — including Attorney General Rob McKenna and former U.S. Sen. Slade Gorton.

Vance, another McCain supporter, said the GOP caucuses are "not the best atmosphere" for moderate candidates. Still, he figures McCain will hold his own in the caucuses and then do well in the primary.

Barack Obama