"Not a tie"

Markos:

We still don't know who won the delegate count, but it should be obvious that the race has shifted and that the Clinton campaign is reeling and Obama is now the front-runner.

Obama is going to lead in pledged delegates after Super Tuesday, something that the Clinton campaign does not dispute:

Hillary advisers also disputed the Obama camp's claim of a lead among delegates, arguing that they were ahead when you factor in superdelegates.

Well, whoop dee doo that you lead in super delegates, considering that most of those enodrsements were racked up when your campaign was the clear frontrunner. After this weekend, when three of the four states, and 126 of the 185 pledged delegates, are determined via caucuses (and the rest are in primaries with high African-American populations), Obama will stretch out his pledged delegate lead further. On Tuesday, no matter who actually wins the popular vote in Virginia, Obama will stretch out his pledged delegate lead even further than that by racking up large wins in D.C. and probably Maryland. And then, on February 19th, there is another caucus in Hawaii, and a primary in the non-partisan registration state of Obama's neighboring Wisconsin. Yes indeed, the February calendar is very favorable to Obama.

A campaign that is now on course to be down by more than 100 pledged delegates in two weeks didn't "tie." Just like Mitt Romney, any campaign that is talking about changing delegate allocation rules didn't "tie." A campaign that is plugging its website to try and raise money didn't "tie." A campaign that talks about stopping the momentum currently enjoyed by its opponent didn't "tie." That is a campaign back on its heels. As I wrote last night, this was not a tie, and Obama clearly has the edge.

Here is my pre-Super Tuesday look at what each campaign needed to do yesterday, and what would follow:

For Obama, his task for Tuesday is simply to survive. He needs to finish within 200 delegates of Clinton to keep it close, because the rest of the month is tailor made for Obama -- Louisiana primary and Nebraska and Washington caucuses on Saturday, February 9th, Maine caucuses on Sunday February 10, the Beltway Primary on February 12 -- DC, Maryland, and Virginia, and Hawaii and Wisconsin the next Tuesday, February 19. Of those states, only Maine might prove kind to Hillary (though we haven't had any polling since October of last year, when Hillary had a commanding 46-10 lead). The rest -- 563 delegates' worth of contests, will favor Obama heavily.

So Hillary's task is to defeat Obama decisively on Tuesday. If she can't manage that, then her plan B is to survive February to fight in March. On Tuesday the 4th, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont go to the polls. Vermont appears the most competitive right now, though that will change with a couple of weeks to campaign in these states. Winning Ohio, in particular will be important for propaganda purposes.

Tiny Wyoming will go on Saturday March 8, with its 18 delegates perhaps actually mattering. Mississippi, with its 40 delegates, should be Obama territory on the 11th. Then...

Absolutely nothing for six weeks until Pennsylvania on April 22. Shit. Atrios and Booman may actually have a say this primary. How scary is that? And those 188 delegates will loom large. In fact, this is the only contest of significance (not including Guam) for an entire two months. It'll be huge.

After that, another two weeks pass until Tuesday May 6, when 218 delegates are at stake in Indiana and North Carolina. A week later, 39 delegates will be decided in West Virginia, a week after that on the 20th, Kentucky and Oregon, and that closes out May. Given the demographics of NC (heavily African American, lots of creative class thanks to the Research Triangle), that'll be Obama territory. Oregon Democrats are heavily "creative class", so lean that one toward Obama. Beats me about West Virginia and Kentucky, though West Virginia was competitive for Obama the last time it was polled in April of 2007, back when he wasn't competitive anywhere (he trailed 37-22, with Edwards getting 19), so that bodes well. Meanwhile, Kentucky has never been polled for the presidential contest, so who knows.

So what's left? Two weeks later, on June 3, Montana and South Dakota select 47 total delegates, and then that Saturday, Puerto Rico closes things out with its 63 delegates up for grabs.

So how will this shake out? Beats me. But task one is for Obama to survive this Tuesday. If he does, task two is for Hillary to survive this month. If she does, then they both have to survive the mini-Super Tuesday on March 4th. If they do, this thing goes to Pennsylvania. Or to North Carolina.

Or to the convention.

Well, Clinton came nowhere near what she needed to do to build a strong delegate lead (and super delegates can change their mind, they're not locked in). Obama needed to survive, and he did more than that -- he outright won the night.

Now his job is to finish off Clinton. If he can rack up a full month of 20%+ victories the rest of this month, he does just that.

People accused me of playing the expectations game before Super Tuesday by lowering the bar to Obama. Hogwash, I'm calling them as I see them. And that last paragraph is proof -- do you think the Obama spin is that he needs to sweep the rest of the month by 20% margins to knock Clinton out? Obviously not.

But if Obama does that, Clinton's money will dry up and the momentum toward the March contests will create an Obama tsunami.

Obama accomplished what he needed to do to survive on Super Tuesday. Now we get to see if Clinton can do what she needs to do to survive February.

p.s. Memo to Penn: Clinton is the establishment candidate. Nice try though.

p.p.s. I'm rerunning this stat Laura wrote up yesterday because I still find it incredible:

States Obama won with (so far) more than 60% of the vote:

Alaska (over 70%)
Colorado
Georgia
Idaho (over 70%)
Illinois
Kansas (over 70%)
Minnesota
North Dakota

States Clinton won with (so far) more than 60% of the vote:

Arkansas

Barack Obama