"UW Poll: Constantine leads Hutchison, Mallahan tops McGinn" (Updated)

UPDATE: Darryl is a progressive blogger and professor of anthropology @ UDub and provides "Poll Analysis: Washington State I-1033 & R-71, King County Executive and Seattle Mayor." If you hate statistics, don't go there.

Joel Connelly:

Businessman Joe Mallahan has moved out to an eight-point lead over lawyer Mike McGinn in the race for Seattle mayor, according to the new Washington Poll, while Dow Constantine is ahead of Susan Hutchison in the contest for King County executive.

Mallahan is "stretching a lead out even though the figures leave a whopping 19 percent undecided," said University of Washington political scientist Matt Barreto, who oversaw the poll. Mallahan leads 44 percent to 36 percent.

The survey yielded one fascinating development. Mallahan and McGinn were tied during the portion of the poll taken during Oct. 14-20. After McGinn's aparent flip-flop on the deep-bored tunnel replacement for the Alaskan Way Viaduct, subsequent polling showed Mallahan ahead 45 percent to 29 percent.

The Washington Poll's figures in the county exec's race run counter to findings by two SurveyUSA polls for KING5 news.

The Washington Poll has Constantine at 47 percent, Hutchison with 34 percent with a big 19 percent undecided.

"I think that's going to hold, in large part due to high turnout in the city," Barreto said.

We all knew Seattle was a Democratic city, but the Washington Poll shows just how Democratic. The executive race is officially nonpartisan, but Democrat Constantine has a 70 to 21 percent lead in Jet City. Hutchison is ahead 40-28 in the rest of King County, with a big 32 percent undecided. "They have not circled the wagons for her, at least not yet," Barreto said.

The Washington Poll, which interviewed a total of 724 voters, brings very good news for supporters of same-sex domestic partnerships.

Referendum 71, where an "approved" vote upholds the state's new expanded gay rights law, garners 57 percent 'yes' to 38 percent 'no' with 5 percent undecided. Among voters who say they've already mailed in ballots, R-71 was carrying by a 55-45 margin.

R-71 is ahead by 60-35 in the Puget Sound area and 55-40 elsewhere in Western Washington. But the vote count in Eastern Washington, the most conservative part of the state, breaks nearly even with 46 percent 'yes' and 49 percent 'no.'

The Washington Poll has accurately tracked professional-initiative sponsor Tim Eyman's past victories and defeats.

The latest figures indicate Eyman may be going down to defeat for the first time in an off-year election. Among all registered voters, Eyman's Initiative 1033 is favored by 41 percent and opposed by 46 percent. The measure would restrict spending growth by state, county and local government. Among likely voters, the figures on I-1033 are 40 percent 'yes' and 49 percent 'no,' with about 10 percent undecided.

"The undecideds are starting to trend 'no,'" Barretta said.

The poll was taken Oct. 14-26. It involved actual interviews with voters, unlike the so-called robocalls used in other polls.

The Washington Poll surveyed all regions of the state, but took into account the anticipated higher turnout in King County. It has a margin of error of 3.6 percent and has a pretty good track record in recent elections.

Howie P.S.: Andrew (NPI Advocate) has more instant analysis, from an East King County perspective.