Saturday, January 05, 2008

"Hillary lauds Obama's progressive record"

Markos:
Interesting.

Hillary's aides point to Obama's extremely progressive record as a community organizer, state senator and candidate for Congress, his alliances with "left-wing" intellectuals in Chicago's Hyde Park community, and his liberal voting record on criminal defendants' rights as subjects for examination.

Yglesias:

Hillary Clinton's campaign seems determined to convince Barack Obama's detractors in the blogosphere that he is so a liberal after all [...]

Progressive record? Heaven forbid! I thought he didn't have experience.

One does get the sense that Hillary's operation is just throwing mud against the wall to see what will stick. Obama needs the independent vote in NH, and the Clinton campaign is obviously trying to scare them away from Obama.

If she succeeds, they'll end up voting for McCain helping to give Republicans their strongest general election candidate. Seems kind of self-defeating, doesn't it? But she needs to stem the bleeding. So suddenly, we have a situation in which the best interests of the Democratic Party is at odds with her short-term interests.

(Washington) "State could turn into big player"

Seattle P-I:
New front-runners might give our caucuses more sway--Whatever else they mean, the deck-shuffling results of the Iowa caucuses greatly increase the chance that Washington state voters might actually play a role in February in determining who gets nominated for president, both Democratic and Republican state party leaders said Friday.

And Thursday's big winners -- Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Barack Obama -- could find that the support among religious conservatives (in Huckabee's case) and young voters (for Obama) that boosted them in Iowa could fuel their campaigns in Washington as well.
Both GOP state Chairman Luke Esser and his Democratic counterpart, Dwight Pelz, said the victories by Obama and Huckabee make it more likely that multiple candidates in each party will survive Super Tuesday on Feb. 5 -- and that they'll campaign in Seattle and around the state in the days leading up to Washington's caucuses on Feb. 9. Republican candidates, at least, may also come back for a campaign swing before the state primary on Feb. 19, Esser said.

The once-presumed front-runners in Iowa -- former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney on the Republican side and Democrat Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York -- fell short in the Thursday caucuses, with Romney trailing Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, and Clinton finishing behind both Obama, a senator from Illinois, and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina. Romney's stumble may have created an opening for two Republicans who campaigned little in Iowa -- Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani -- heading into the New Hampshire primary Tuesday.

"I tend to think it's going to be wide open for quite some time, that we're going to see different candidates winning different states and it's not going to settle out for quite some time," Esser said.

Pelz said much the same thing.

"I don't think it will be settled by Super Tuesday," Pelz said, "and we're the next big thing -- so I expect Democratic candidates to be out here campaigning on February 6th, 7th and 8th."

More than 20 states will conduct primaries or caucuses Feb. 5. Had Romney and Clinton won Iowa, the conventional thinking was that they could roll into Super Tuesday in the lead and lock up their nominations then.

Washington Democrats will look to their Feb. 9 caucuses in selecting 78 of their 97 delegates to the national nominating convention, with the balance going automatically to public officials and party leaders, along with two slots to be filled by Pelz.

The GOP will draw on the caucuses for 18 of its 40 national delegates. Esser and two other party leaders will fill three slots. The rest will be determined by the Feb. 19 primary, which the Democrats will ignore as far as delegation selection goes.

Three smaller states will also select delegates on Feb. 9: Kansas and Nebraska, with caucuses, and Louisiana, with a primary. Two smaller states -- Hawaii, with Democratic caucuses, and Wisconsin, with a primary -- take that step Feb. 19. That should give the Washington state events a relatively high profile.

Neither Esser nor Pelz is endorsing a candidate. A months-old poll showed Giuliani with a plurality of support among Washington state Republicans, Esser said. Although Pelz isn't aware of any party polling, he said most Democratic gatherings he attends in the state seem to divide evenly among Obama, Edwards and Clinton.

In Iowa, evangelical Christians are credited with giving Huckabee, a Baptist minister, much of the support that has boosted him from nonentity a few months ago to front-runner today. That bloc is less significant in Washington state Republican politics, Esser said, but it's not nonexistent.

Huckabee's Iowa win could galvanize the Christian right in Washington, some conservative leaders said.

"I think the fact that he has been somewhat fearless will be encouraging to evangelicals in this state," said the Rev. Alec Rowlands, president of Sound the Alarm, a group of clergy and business people that takes conservative positions on social issues.

"But if he were to become the front-runner nationally, the very thing that endears him to us would put him in the crosshairs of Democrats and many liberals."

Rowlands, who was pastor of a church in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, for seven years before coming to Westgate Chapel in Edmonds, said caucuses reward candidates with good organizations and committed supporters. But beyond that, Huckabee won because he took unabashed stands on hot-button issues such as abortion as well as poverty and the environment, Rowlands said.

Huckabee's win demonstrates the motivation of evangelicals to muster for the caucuses, said Larry Stickney, executive director of the Family Policy Institute of Washington.

"I think that bodes well for Washington," he said. "I hope so, because we've had terrible turnouts in the past couple of years."

Though Huckabee "may not be the perfect conservative," he attracts Christian conservatives because "the pro-life, pro-family and religious-freedom issues are very much the values in voters' minds these days," Stickney said. His institute in Lynnwood is the state affiliate of Focus on the Family, a Colorado-based national ministry that takes conservative, biblical positions on social issues.

Neither Stickney's nor Rowlands' organization has made an endorsement in the presidential race.

For Obama, overwhelming support among younger Iowa voters apparently pushed him to the top -- and that trend may hold for him in Washington as well. At a recent meeting of the University of Washington Young Democrats, Obama easily finished first in an impromptu poll, Young Democrat member Matt Gilchrist said.

"What grabs me is his youth," Gilchrist, a senior, said (at 46, Obama is 14 years younger than Clinton and seven years younger than Edwards). "I think it's good to have fresh ideas and voices. And his way of speaking -- he really energizes people."

Kelly Drake, a Ballard resident and member of the King County Young Democrats, helped coordinate caucuses Thursday in Iowa, where she attended school.

"(Obama) is very aggressive in terms of getting out the young vote," Drake said. "I think that's something a lot of young voters respond to. It's like, 'Hey, we finally matter.' "

Seattle Pacific University student Troy Underbrink identifies with the GOP, but said he's happy with the results on both sides in Iowa.

While Romney is his first choice for president, Huckabee is a close second. And if a Democrat does have to win the November election, Underbrink said, he'd prefer Obama to Edwards or Clinton.

"I would be very happy if he won the nomination over Hillary," Underbrink said.

"At the same time, I don't particularly want him to be president."

'Independence': New Obama NH Ad


Video, (00:31).
Howie P.S.: For a view from the ground in NH, here's PsiFighter37's diary on Kos.

Friday, January 04, 2008

"Judge Him by His Laws"

Charles Peters, WaPo op-ed:
People who complain that Barack Obama lacks experience must be unaware of his legislative achievements. One reason these accomplishments are unfamiliar is that the media have not devoted enough attention to Obama's bills and the effort required to pass them, ignoring impressive, hard evidence of his character and ability.
Since most of Obama's legislation was enacted in Illinois, most of the evidence is found there -- and it has been largely ignored by the media in a kind of Washington snobbery that assumes state legislatures are not to be taken seriously. (Another factor is reporters' fascination with the horse race at the expense of substance that they assume is boring, a fascination that despite being ridiculed for years continues to dominate political journalism.)

I am a rarity among Washington journalists in that I have served in a state legislature. I know from my time in the West Virginia legislature that the challenges faced by reform-minded state representatives are no less, if indeed not more, formidable than those encountered in Congress. For me, at least, trying to deal with those challenges involved as much drama as any election. And the "heart and soul" bill, the one for which a legislator gives everything he or she has to get passed, has long told me more than anything else about a person's character and ability.

Consider a bill into which Obama clearly put his heart and soul. The problem he wanted to address was that too many confessions, rather than being voluntary, were coerced -- by beating the daylights out of the accused.

Obama proposed requiring that interrogations and confessions be videotaped.

This seemed likely to stop the beatings, but the bill itself aroused immediate opposition. There were Republicans who were automatically tough on crime and Democrats who feared being thought soft on crime. There were death penalty abolitionists, some of whom worried that Obama's bill, by preventing the execution of innocents, would deprive them of their best argument. Vigorous opposition came from the police, too many of whom had become accustomed to using muscle to "solve" crimes. And the incoming governor, Rod Blagojevich, announced that he was against it.

Obama had his work cut out for him.

He responded with an all-out campaign of cajolery. It had not been easy for a Harvard man to become a regular guy to his colleagues. Obama had managed to do so by playing basketball and poker with them and, most of all, by listening to their concerns. Even Republicans came to respect him. One Republican state senator, Kirk Dillard, has said that "Barack had a way both intellectually and in demeanor that defused skeptics."

The police proved to be Obama's toughest opponent. Legislators tend to quail when cops say things like, "This means we won't be able to protect your children." The police tried to limit the videotaping to confessions, but Obama, knowing that the beatings were most likely to occur during questioning, fought -- successfully -- to keep interrogations included in the required videotaping.

By showing officers that he shared many of their concerns, even going so far as to help pass other legislation they wanted, he was able to quiet the fears of many.

Obama proved persuasive enough that the bill passed both houses of the legislature, the Senate by an incredible 35 to 0. Then he talked Blagojevich into signing the bill, making Illinois the first state to require such videotaping.

Obama didn't stop there. He played a major role in passing many other bills, including the state's first earned-income tax credit to help the working poor and the first ethics and campaign finance law in 25 years (a law a Post story said made Illinois "one of the best in the nation on campaign finance disclosure"). Obama's commitment to ethics continued in the U.S. Senate, where he co-authored the new lobbying reform law that, among its hard-to-sell provisions, requires lawmakers to disclose the names of lobbyists who "bundle" contributions for them.

Taken together, these accomplishments demonstrate that Obama has what Dillard, the Republican state senator, calls a "unique" ability "to deal with extremely complex issues, to reach across the aisle and to deal with diverse people." In other words, Obama's campaign claim that he can persuade us to rise above what divides us is not just rhetoric.

I do not think that a candidate's legislative record is the only measure of presidential potential, simply that Obama's is revealing enough to merit far more attention than it has received. Indeed, the media have been equally delinquent in reporting the legislative achievements of Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, both of whom spent years in the U.S. Senate. The media should compare their legislative records to Obama's, devoting special attention to their heart-and-soul bills and how effective each was in actually making law.
Charles Peters, the founding editor of the Washington Monthly, is president of Understanding Government, a foundation devoted to better government through better reporting.

"Obama's victory upends his party's politics"

LA Times:
DES MOINES — Barack Obama's surprisingly convincing win in Iowa on Thursday upended the Democratic presidential race and overturned some of the fundamental assumptions of modern-day American politics.
Voters in an overwhelmingly white state embraced an African American candidate.

Women, given the chance to vote for the first credible female White House hopeful in Hillary Rodham Clinton, voted in larger numbers for a man.

And the Democratic Party's most formidable political machine, drawing on deep-pocket donors and the celebrity of former President Clinton, was beaten by a man who just three years ago held an office no higher than state legislator.

Amid it all, Obama, a first-term senator from Illinois, changed the rules of the Iowa caucuses.

Long viewed as an insular process dominated by longtime political activists, Thursday's first-in-the-nation voting event of the 2008 campaign turned out to be a forum for unaffiliated voters and first-time participants to say they were looking for something new and different.

One-fifth of the Democratic caucus participants were independents, according to a media survey taken as voters entered precincts Thursday night -- and of them, 41% backed Obama and just 17% opted for Clinton. Moreover, 57% of caucus-goers said it was their first time taking part, and first-time caucus-goers made up two-thirds of Obama's supporters.

Even among Democrats -- who Clinton strategists have long argued would be her saving grace -- Obama and Clinton essentially tied, winning 32% and 31% respectively.

The entrance survey of 2,136 Democratic caucus participants, called the National Election Poll, was conducted for a consortium of media organizations, including the Los Angeles Times, by Edison/Mitofsky.

The results helped answer a question that has lingered for nearly a year: Would a desire for experience in a time of war outweigh voters' desire for change in national leadership?

According to the media survey of Democratic caucus-goers, just one in five considered experience to be the most important factor, compared to more than half who said an ability to bring "needed change" mattered most. And among those who embraced change, more than half backed Obama while Clinton and John Edwards split most of the rest in that category.

For the New York senator, the results stood as a sharp rebuke by voters to a central argument of her candidacy: that she, more than her rivals, was prepared to assume the responsibilities of the presidency.

Surveys have long found that Clinton, the second-term senator and former first lady, was viewed as the most experienced and best-qualified to lead on matters of national security and war.

But voters instead endorsed Obama's primary argument for "turning the page" in Washington, an argument that essentially painted Clinton as a status quo candidate.

"Change is the driving dynamic of the race, as opposed to who has the most conventional resume or who voters see as the 'strongest leader,' " said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager.

The results are especially damaging for Edwards, the former North Carolina senator. Even though he barely edged out Clinton for second place the Democratic race is very much a two-person contest, pitting Obama against Clinton.



Edwards was the party's 2004 vice presidential nominee thanks in part to his surprisingly strong second-place finish here in that year's caucuses. But after campaigning in the state nearly nonstop since then, Edwards was thought by some to have the strongest organization and the best chance at victory.

Despite gaining steam in recent weeks with sharply populist attacks on "corporate greed" and lobbyists' power, Edwards on Thursday failed to win his core base of union households and lower-income people.

He placed third among union households, winning 24% of that group, compared to 31% for Clinton and 28% for Obama, according to the entrance survey.

Edwards vowed on Thursday to compete in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary and beyond, but strategists for his rivals said they do not view him as a threat, mostly because of his lackluster fundraising and the expenditure limits imposed on his campaign because of his decision to accept public financing.

Clinton, however, has the national support base and resources to forge ahead.

She retains double-digit leads in national polls and in most of the big states that vote in late January and early February.

She has raised more than $100 million and, though her once-daunting lead in New Hampshire has dwindled in recent days, she enjoys advantages there that she did not have in Iowa. It was a stronger-than-expected finish in New Hampshire in 1992 that allowed her husband to declare himself the "Comeback Kid," and strategists say many voters there remain loyal to the Clintons.

One bright spot in Iowa was her strength among older voters, a strength that could help her along the way.

"Of all the candidates, her support is the most solid, and they will be with her come hell or high water," said Ray Buckley, chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party.

As a result, the Democratic race has gained more sharply defined contours.

Two Democratic candidates, Sens. Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Christopher J. Dodd, both of whom made experience a central pillar of their campaigns, have dropped out. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who touted himself as the most seasoned executive, has been diminished.

Now Clinton will be the sole candidate of experience, and Obama, with Edwards in trouble, can grab the mantle of change.

If voters in other states match the mind-set of Iowa, the Clinton nomination long considered inevitable by top Democratic and Republican strategists could be in serious jeopardy.

She may encounter trouble winning additional donors, while Obama's win is likely to spur more online giving to his campaign.

Polls in other early-voting states, some of which have tightened in recent weeks, could grow even closer.

And Clinton strategists will wonder if she should have taken the advice of an aide who, last year, advised that she skip Iowa.

The aide wrote in an internal memo that competing in the caucuses, with more than 20 states including California making up a decisive national primary on Feb. 5, could "bankrupt the campaign and provide little if any political advantage."

On Thursday, former President Clinton argued in an interview in the downtown Des Moines Starbucks that his wife had to go to Iowa to "show that she could compete everywhere."

The danger for Sen. Clinton is that, instead, it shows the opposite.

"WHY OBAMA'S WIN IS BIGGER THAN YOU THINK"

Ari Melber (The Nation):
Des Moines -- Barack Obama's decisive victory in the Iowa Caucus is probably even larger than most people realize.
In a battery of national polls -- often inaccurate but relentlessly pitched as self-fulfilling media predictions -- Clinton led by an average of 21 points just last week. As the Clinton Campaign used to emphasize, she also led in December polls from every upcoming primary state, from Iowa to Nevada. She spent about $7 million on over 8,000 television ads in Iowa, plus at least another $10 million on outreach in the state, and stood on the shoulders of Democratic giants, from President Clinton to Michael Whouley to a sizable chunk of the liberal policy establishment.

Barack Obama battled an expectations game stacked against all challengers; a metric of experience discounting work beyond Washington; and an unknowable question about the relevance of his skin color, swirling around his candidacy alone. Last night, Iowans did not simply accept Obama's masterful ability to clear those hurdles, they rushed to support him in an unprecedented coalition within record-breaking turnout. Over half of Democratic attendees were first-time caucus goers. Obama tapped the largest share of the new participants, who compromised 41 percent of his support. Youth turnout jumped 5 percent from 2004, thanks to Obama, who drew a whopping 57 percent of voters under 30. (Edwards and Clinton netted 13 and 11 percent, respectively.) Obama won more support from women voters than Clinton, by five percent. And he bested Clinton and Edwards by a solid 7 percent – roughly 25 percent of their totals.

Republicans saw 108,000 people caucus last night, while the Democrats drew a record-breaking 239,000 caucus attendees -- a gain of 115,000 from 2004. In today's New York Times, Adam Nagourney depicts the Democrats' "huge turn-out" as a demonstration of "the extent to which opposition to President Bush has energized Democrats." Not quite. Bush was easily as big an energizer in 2004, when he was actually on the ballot and Democrats were eager to battle an incumbent who had never even won the popular vote.
Something else is at work here: a strong Democratic field with several compelling candidates; a sense that this is a rare and epic intramural battle that can set the party's course; and, apparently, a hunger for an Obama candidacy that is as adamant about transcending Bush Republicanism as it is about vanquishing Clintonian politics.

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Hillary and John Say "Thank You, Iowa" (video)


hillaryclintondotcom, Video (09:20):
January 3, 2008


johnedwards, video (10:05):
John Edwards speaks in Des Moines after the Iowa caucuses. Change won, the status quo lost, and the fight is on to see if we're going to have the kind of change we need to save the middle class.

Kelly Drake: Report from Iowa City Precinct 14

Kelly Drake (email):
By now everyone has seen the results on CNN, MSNBC or any number of news outlets. From the frontlines in Iowa the results are just as fabulous for Obama. A college friend of mine who grew up in Iowa but never caucused went with me to her precinct tonight. I was excited and to keep our mouths from freezing we chatted about the process and how things ran in 2000 and 204 when I caucused in Johnson County, IA. As we walked into the front door of Mark Twain Elementary school someone was directing people.

Ironically, Republicans to the left and Democrats to the right.
The lines to register for the Democratic caucus were down the hallway and around the corner nearly to the other end (god bless same day voter registration!) and that was at 6:15 and the lines were closed at 7. The Democrats were literally packed into the gymnasium. There was a record breaking 424 people in attendance, even with the nearly a foot and a half of snow on the ground and below freezing temperatures. (So no more excuses Washingtonians!) Obama's campaign was set up to gather right as you entered the gym. As I looked at the crowd I was amazed by the sheer number of people in attendance, but also that the Obama crowd took up half of the gym.

7 pm. The caucus officially started and the precinct caucus chair read a letter from the Iowa Democratic Party Chair. Once the end of the line had registered and the last voter credentialed it was time to get down to the business at hand. One tiny problem. The room was far too small. There were so many people in attendance, that some caucus goers were lining the hallway. So it was decided to take the campaigns that were viable for at least one delegate to separate classrooms so that accurate counts could be taken. Obama's supporters took up 2 classrooms and the length of the hallway. Clinton had one classroom, as did Edwards. The threshold was 64 votes to receive a delegate. First count had Biden - 15, Clinton - 81, Dodd - 10, Edwards - 67, Gravel - 0, Kucinich -17, Obama - 192, Richardson - 25, and about 20 undecideds.

8:05 pm - 30 minutes for Second Redistribution started. Lots of people had questions about the basic math. And I was in charge of one of the Obama rooms, so I explained that you calculate the number of delegates by following the formula: (# of votes for candidate x # of delegates for precinct) / total # voters credentialed. Meanwhile, back in the gym people who were passionate for Obama spoke with those who either undecided or were supporting candidates that were not viable.

8:35 pm - Second redistribution counting began. Final count: Clinton - 88 (1 delegate), Edwards - 101 (1 delegate), Obama - 217 (5 delegates). According to the caucus rules a third distribution was required however seeing that there were no undecided voters remaining and all campaign representatives felt that the numbers were not going to drastically change the outcome the third count was considered to be consistent with the second. All parties agreed and Roberts rules of order was followed so there were no challenges to the votes.
So the final results were 53% Obama, 25% Edwards, 22% Clinton.

Kelly from Iowa, signing off and heading for warmer (albeit rainy) weather.

Fired Up! Ready to GO!
Howie P.S: Kelly has promised us some caucus photos when she returns to Seattle.

"Obama's Victory Speech" (video)


BarackObamadotcom, video (14:08):
Barack Obama speaks after winning the Iowa Caucuses Thursday night.

"On Being Balls Out for Obama"

Walker Willingham:
It is a challenge for someone like me to throw my unqualified support behind a single contender for the presidency who is actually given a reasonable chance of winning that contest. My own views include a number of unpopular opinions, and American politics is usually unkind toward anyone with the guts to stand up for such ideas.
Barack Obama may on balance be more conservative than I am, but he eloquently gives voice to a central concept in my own political thinking.
“To me, the issue is not are you centrist or are you liberal. The issue to me is--Is what you’re proposing going to work? Can you build a working coalition to make the lives of people better? And if it can work, you should support it whether it’s centrist, conservative, or liberal.”
From the time I heard his keynote address to the 2004 Democratic National Convention, in which he eloquently challenged the conventional notion that we are a nation divided, and that there is little point in bridging our gaps or understanding our adversaries, but rather that
we worship an awesome God in the blue states, and we don't like federal agents poking around our libraries in the red states
I realized that here was someone who was finally giving voice to a powerful alternative to the false dichotomy which has divided us.

Even so I realize that inspirational oratory alone does not make a president or a leader. Political reality demands specific actions, proposals, compromises, and the ability to not only say the right thing but to work with a variety of players to make things happen. I am able to live with Obama's hybrid answer to health care which is not as bold as the plans I would prefer put forward by Kucinich or even Edwards, or his shying away from supporting gay marriage as I would. My tentativeness in supporting such a candidate probably lies more in being convinced that he can successfully drive through those programs where we are in agreement, and make progress on many fronts.

Obama's website does a good job of laying out his positions on issues. His commitment from the outset to rely on individual donors rather than institutional or corporate donors, puts him along with Edwards and Kucinich in the position of being less indebted to the moneyed interests which so many Americans, left, right, and center would like to see play less role in our politics. Having read his "Audacity of Hope", I am convinced of both his sincerity and his intellect.

Some liberal or progressive skeptics worry that Edwards is right that there is a battle to be joined against the corporate bigwigs, and Obama's inclusive approach is naive. Pitching the struggle as a battle, however, may be the naive position, which sets up yet another either/or formulation that will ultimately fall to the moneyed interests. I'm more inclined to agree with this assessment that

the sheer force of [Obama's] empathy and skills as a communicator, would broaden the political landscape and convince moderate Republicans and Independents to back progressive policies they ordinarily wouldn't go for.
Obama's promise to give the corporations "a seat at the table" when issues impacting them are discussed, is not the same as allowing them to set the agenda. I'm convinced that Obama can make it clear to those representatives that certain assumptions they once were able to make are no longer possibilities. It only makes sense to invite the participation of those who understand the current structures when seeking new solutions.

Last summer in talking with others who attended with me an Obama stump speech, the decided Obama supporter among them asked me whether I was "balls out" for Obama. Perhaps suffering from an affliction common among those of us in the second halves of our lives, my response was qualified. But now, with my own state caucus only 5 weeks away, this progressive has decided that it is time to declare my unmitigated support for Obama, without reservation.
Howie P.S.: Walker says "you were the inspiration for the title of my article." I am deeply humbled by that comment, even though I have no specific recollection of our conversation.

Kelly Drake's Report from Iowa

Kelly Drake emails from the frozen midwest:
I'm currently in Iowa City but I've also been to Maquoketa as well as the Quad Cities (Davenport). From my contact with voters, I really think that tomorrow night's outcome will come down to the Second Redistribution and who people decide to choose once candidates become viable or not for delegates. Especially considering the Kucinich move to press his supporters to vote for Obama.
In terms of college students and their voting records....The Clinton & Dodd campaigns helped out the Obama campaign (at least here in Johnson County, where the University of Iowa is located). There are lots of resources to get students back campus to caucus as backlash against Clinton's outcry at the fact that out of state students legally change their voter registration to Iowa. But the fact that most colleges aren't in session until the 22nd is hard to judge. Because students who grew up in Iowa but attend school elsewhere will be home to vote if they choose, however, at the same time the 40% of the Univ. of Iowa's student body that is from the Chicago area may or may not make the trip into Johnson County to caucus.

I wouldn't count on the Kucinich effect. I was a Dean precinct captain at the 2004 caucus and there was supposedly similar deals between Edwards and Kucinich, but those did not pan out at the actual caucuses. It will be great if that does pan out for Obama though!

All this aside, my contact with voters here has been pretty promising. The average voter seems to be tuning out all the negativity emanating from the Hillary campaign against Obama. My sense is that people don't trust her any further than they can throw her. And I've talked to quite a few people who are first choice Richardson, Biden or Dodd but then if their guy isn't viable for a delegate or Hillary's support is overflowing then they plan on voting for Obama.
For tomorrow night (Thursday) I've rounded up a group of people to take to caucus (a good chunk of them first time caucus voters), then afterwards we're going to Buffalo Wild Wings to watch the returns! It should make for a great night!

Kelly Drake
Iowa alumni/Seattle Obamamaniac

LIVE Coverage of the Iowa Caucuses Today

Online here or on your tv, C-SPAN at 7pm ET (4pm PST).

Howie P.S.: Brave New Films is providing live video coverage of Iowa caucuses, as follows:
Cenk Uygur will be checking in with bloggers on the ground in Iowa and staffers from the different campaigns throughout the night. I'll be live blogging all the results, rumors, and scuttlebutt too. Come party with us!

http://bravenewfilms.org/election?utm_source=rgemail

WHEN: TONIGHT AT 7PM ET
HOSTS: Cenk Uygur, Ben Mankiewicz, and Wes Clark, Jr.
WHERE: http://bravenewfilms.org/election?utm_source=rgemail

SCHEDULE:
7:30pm ET: Adam Green, Moveon.org
7:45pm ET: Sam Seder, Air America
8:00pm ET: Faiz Shakir, Think Progress
8:15pm ET: Matt Stoller, Open Left
8:30pm ET: Sean Paul-Kelly, The Agonist
8:45pm ET: Todd Beeton, MyDD
9:00pm ET: Katrina vanden Heuvel, The Nation

ALSO SCHEDULED TO APPEAR:
Ellen Brodsky, News Hounds
Steve Clemons, The Washington Note
Ari Melber, The Nation
Richard Wolffe, Newsweek

See you online tonight,
Jim Gilliam, Leighton Woodhouse, and everyone at Brave New Films and the Young Turks.

"Obama wins Drinking Liberally pre-Iowa Caucus Caucus"

Dan Kirkdorffer:
Tonight (Wednesday) the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally held a pre-Iowa Caucus Caucus. There were about 50 participants and after an initial tally gave Edwards a 20 to 15 person lead over Obama, the final results came in with Obama on top:

Seattle Drinking Liberally pre-Iowa Caucus Caucus Results

mcjoan at Daily Kos was live blogging the event, and a good time was had by all.

Tomorrow we'll see how the surely numb and saturated Iowan caucus voters decide. Indications are it will be very close between Obama, Edwards and Clinton, with perhaps an outcome that decides nothing.....

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

"Leader": Barack Obama’s Closing 2-Minute Iowa TV Ad


"Leader." video (02:00).

Iowa coverage tomorrow, live results from Seattle Drinking Liberally's caucus

Andrew (NWPI):
UPDATE: The final results are as follows:

CandidateSigned in Supporters Delegates Won
Hillary Clinton 5 - 4th Place 1 delegate
Chris Dodd 13 - 3rd Place 2 delegates
John Edwards 16 - 2nd Place 2 delegates
Barack Obama 17 - 1st Place 2 delegates

We had a tie between Dodd, Edwards, and Obama, while Clinton came in fourth - all other candidates were eliminated. The Kucinich, Richardson, and Gravel supporters switched en masse to Dodd along with two Edwards supporters - and another two defected to Barack Obama, for whatever reason.
-----------------------------------
If you're planning on paying any attention to what happens in Iowa tomorrow during the precinct caucuses (and who isn't?) be sure to check out our live coverage, both here on the Official Blog and at Pacific Northwest Portal, which will feature special feeds syndicating netroots writers who are on the ground in Iowa as well as our usual dynamic elections news ticker.

The local netroots community isn't waiting for the action tomorrow in Iowa, though... we're holding a special Drinking Liberally caucus now at the Montlake Ale House, which hosts the Seattle chapter's weekly gathering. Several dozen people are signed in, and these are the results of the first tabulation:

CandidateSigned in Supporters Delegates Won
Joe Biden 0None
Hillary Clinton 4 - 4th Place
1 delegate
Chris Dodd 6 - 3rd Place 1 delegate
John Edwards 20 - 1st Place
3 delegates
Mike Gravel 2None
Dennis Kucinich 2None
Barack Obama 15 - 2nd Place 2 delegates
Bill Richardson 1None
Uncommitted0N/A
Fred Harris1None

According to the Washington State Democratic Party's formula, these results would net 3 delegates for Edwards, 2 for Obama, and 1 each for Clinton and Dodd.

Round 2 is now underway... I'll post an update shortly.
Howie P.S.: I showed up and was surprised (pleasantly) how well Obama did with this group.

"John Edwards - "Wave Of Change" Ad - New Hampshire"


johnedwards, video (00:31):
John Edwards' latest campaign ad airing in New Hampshire.

"First presidential caucus to be held in Seattle... tonight!"

BlatherWatch:

Drinking_liberal_bottle Seattle's Drinking Liberally, that Tuesday night politico/alcoholic phenomenon will be on Wednesday this week and the first presidential caucus in the nation will be held.

It's at the Montlake Alehouse, 2307 24th Ave. E. at 7p.

Whether you're a Democrat or Republican-- come caucus for your favorite candidate.

(Republicans better show up or BlatherWatch could pick your candidate. It's a hard decision-- who to pick? Huck-a-bee, Giuliani, or Romney? they're all such losers for so many different reasons).

Not to be confused with the Beer Caucus held every Monday night at the Court Avenue Brewery in Des Moines, Iowa)

Our statistician, Darryl at Hominid Views gives a stunning synopsis of recent Iowa polling here.
Howie P.S.: At this point in time, I am "undecided" about attending, as I am not as "audacious" as my preferred candidate and fear being swift-boated and slimed by my fellow Seattle DLers. They are all "angry" Edwards people. Am I the only one who thinks Trippi is behind the "angry" Edwards?

SLOGGING through Iowa with John Edwards

Eli Sanders (The Stranger's blog, "SLOG"):
Oh look, it’s 5 a.m. again. They tell me I’m in Ottumwa. While we have another brief moment of electricity, warmth, and wireless, some more photoblogging from the Edwards up-all-night bus tour.
12:00 a.m. Jan 2
Atlantic, Iowa. This was a farm house, very American pastoral, where John and Elizabeth Edwards had cornbread and black-eyed peas…

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…and reporters took notes through indoor windows dressed in lacy trim (in the background is the cutest wood burning cooking stove ever)…

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…and the farmer who owns the house looked like this:

scaled.Farmer12AM.JPG

2:15 a.m. Jan 2
Creston, Iowa. This stop was notable for the fact that we got to sleep two hours before it happened. The drill now is this: Sleep, fret about battery life, wake up, ask where you are, have no idea what it means, pull on jacket, know it won’t help that much, step out into the dark, feel physically ill from the temperature difference, and find yourself, say, in a lovely house with blue interior.

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The stump speech keeps getting shorter, and I feel like I could give it myself by now… “Fight for you,” “stand up,” “this is very personal to me…”

Only about 15 more hours and 8 more stops to go. See you at the next stop with wireless. Meanwhile I hear the sun just came up.

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It’s morning in America, wherever in America I am, and it’s time to get back on the bus.
Howie P.S.: More SLOGGING here. Oh yeah, the Des Moines Register tagged along, too. And the NY Times adds a few amusing details. Michael Moore chimes in with his feelings about the top three democratic candidates and finishes with a few nicer words for Mr. Edwards.

"Crossroads": Final Iowa Clinton ad (video)


hillaryclintondotcom, video (02:00):
Hillary asks Iowans to take the first step toward a new beginning by caucusing for her on January 3.

"LIVE FROM EDWARDS ALL-NIGHTER FOR ECONOMIC JUSTICE"

Ari Melber (The Nation):
It is two in the morning and Jan Knock is waiting for John Edwards to walk through her front door. Knock, a precinct captain in the tiny town of Creston, is hosting the toughest shift in the finale to Edwards' resilient Iowa campaign, a 36-hour statewide juggernaut dubbed the "Marathon for the Middle Class."
Skipping from supporters' homes to ramshackle field offices to café meetings with what might be some of the last undecided activists in Southwestern Iowa, Edwards belts out a spare but supercharged iteration of his populist stump speech. "This is personal for me," he thunders, recounting how his family's hardships have fortified his resolve to fight for economic justice.

And it's personal for some people who stayed up late to see him.

After a midnight speech in Council Bluffs, a young woman approached Edwards and told him she could not afford the medical bills under her health insurance. It is wrong that people in this country can't get basic health care, she said, her voice cracking with emotion, as Edwards pulled her into a tight hug. Her father, Paul Dreher, said he came to the event "halfway undecided," and after hearing about Edwards's commitment to working people, he will caucus for him on Thursday.

Edwards also appeared to move the crowd in Creston, especially his hostess Ms. Knock. "He speaks to me, to my very soul," she said. Knock thinks the combination of a core "loyal" support network and wide popularity among Iowa Democrats will make Edwards the winner on Thursday. "He's a strong second choice, I have friends who have gone with Edwards or Biden or Dodd – all by the way, incredible candidates, the slate is just incredible, but Edwards is their second choice," she explained. Kathy Tapken, a 64-year-old guest at the Creston gathering, said she also planned to back Edwards on Thursday, which will be her very first caucus.

Edwards Campaign Manager David Bonior estimates that Iowans' second choices, which can tip the race in second round voting, will secure Edwards' victory on Thursday. "We know from our calling and our polling that we are the most popular second choice," he told The Nation. Bonior also said that recent attacks from the Obama Campaign indicate they are worried about Edwards' potential to win the caucus.

At a rustic farmhouse in Atlantic, Iowa, Edwards and his wife munched on chili and corn bread with a blue-collar crowd that ranged from several teenagers to more than one woman in her 80s. Helen Pigg, who still remembers seeing President Roosevelt on a train tour through Atlantic in 1936, said she was committed to caucusing for Edwards, just as she did in 2004. She told me, "I like what he stands for – for the common guy."

2008-01-02-Picture1.png

Elizabeth Edwards with a supporter in Creston, Iowa last night.

"For Democrats, Change Is of the Essence" (with video)

WaPo,page one with video (01:51)
The Democratic nomination fight once appeared to be a contest over issues: the Iraq war, Iran, universal health care and economic uncertainty. But as the candidates' positions have melded, they have found themselves agreeing that voters are ready for the changes they are all proposing -- but fighting fiercely over who can deliver.
To Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, it takes experience in the policy trenches of Washington to effect the shifts in health care, economic and foreign policies that Democratic voters are demanding of their president. To Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, that kind of experience is a hindrance, not a help, because exposure to the policy elites diminishes creativity and creates ties to the status quo that are not easily broken. And to former senator John Edwards of North Carolina, experience is beside the point. Change comes through a passion for battle.

"Iraq is still a pretty important issue for Democratic voters and caucusgoers. There's health care, the economy," said Clinton campaign communications director Howard Wolfson. "But I think it is fair to say the overall desire for change out there is now the overwhelming driver."

All sides agree the electorate at least says it is in no mood for a candidate that embodies the status quo, or even incremental movement. Last month, Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart and Republican pollster Bill McInturff asked voters whether they felt the country needs to keep a steady course, with small adjustments; whether America needs to turn the page and start a new chapter, with moderate policy corrections; or whether the country needs major reforms and "a brand new and different approach" to the problems the United States faces. Twenty-four percent wanted small adjustments. Twenty-nine percent wanted to turn the page. Forty-six percent said they want a brand new book.

A poll released New Year's Eve by the Des Moines Register showed the same thing: When asked to choose, likely caucusgoers are more apt to desire change than an impeccable resume. Obama has the edge on change and Clinton holds a large advantage on experience.

As the fresh face in the race who is proclaiming he is beyond partisan politics, "Obama is reading the mood correctly and is playing in a field which is perfectly tuned for 2008," Hart said. "But against that is a second element: We're in a scary time. As much as we want change, we want change with a sense of self-confidence."

That dichotomy crystallizes just why Obama and Clinton seem to be so deadlocked, said Rep. Paul W. Hodes (D-N.H.), an Obama supporter with a political ear to the ground in the Granite State. In 2004, Hodes ran against Republican Charles Bass and was crushed by 20 percentage points. In his 2006 rematch, he won by 8 percentage points.

"If you have one candidate selling her experience working within government -- 'I lived in the White House, and I know what you need' -- versus another candidate saying, 'I organized communities, I know what people are thinking and I'm a relative newcomer to Washington who's seen enough to know things aren't working there,' that's a powerful choice," Hodes said.

But, he added, it's not one with a clear winner.

"We have a chemical in our brain that preserves the status quo," Hodes said. "While we may want change and know we need the change, sometimes it's hard medicine to swallow."

Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.), whose own attempt to present himself as the most experienced Democratic candidate in the race has had little success, made clear last week that he does not think either Obama or Clinton -- or, for that matter, Edwards -- has much to point to as a senator.

"John doesn't have a record in the Senate. John's only passed four bills. They're all about post offices. I mean, literally," said Biden, elected in 1972 and the longest-serving member of Congress running for president this year. "Most freshmen senators don't get much done. Don't get much passed. Barack Obama hasn't passed any. There's not a major bill I know with Hillary's name on it."

From perhaps his most prominent foreign policy perch, the chairmanship of the Foreign Relations European Affairs subcommittee, Obama did not convene a single hearing in 2007. Of the 85 hearings convened by the full Foreign Relations Committee since the Democrats took back control of the Senate, Obama presided over two -- one on June 21, another on Feb. 27, both to consider nominations.

As chairman of the Environment and Public Works subcommittee on Superfund and environmental health, Clinton has called three oversight hearings. But from her more prominent post, on the Armed Services Committee, Clinton has a mixed record. Of the panel's 55 hearings, a transcript review by The Washington Post found her in attendance at 60 percent, compared with the 71 percent attended by another presidential hopeful, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

According to available transcripts, Clinton attended 35 percent of the Environment and Public Works Committee hearings of the 109th Congress, compared with Obama's 59 percent.

Edwards's one term in the Senate was spent mostly in the minority, without even a subcommittee chairmanship.

Clinton has positioned herself as the candidate of experience, the one ready to hit the presidency running and the one with the inside knowledge of Washington necessary to secure an agenda. "I'm not asking you to take me on a leap of faith," Clinton told a packed auditorium in Ames, Iowa, yesterday, listing her resume both as a lawyer and as a first lady.

But it is a tricky place for her. Was she a wife with a front-row seat in the Clinton years, or was she an integral part of the policy apparatus, responsible for her husband's failures as well as his successes? Was her failed effort to come up with a national health plan a sign of her ineffectiveness or a hard-won lesson for the future?

Since the assassination of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto, both Clintons have been on the campaign stump, speaking of the hair-raising, dangerous journeys Hillary Clinton took as first lady to international hot spots, including a stomach-churning "corkscrew" landing into Bosnia.

"If a place was too dangerous, too poor or too small, send the first lady," she told voters in Dubuque on Saturday. But as she described in her autobiography, "Living History," she was apparently not alone in her bravery. That goodwill flight to Bosnia included comedian Sinbad, singer Sheryl Crow and her own teenage daughter, Chelsea.

Her supporters like to point out just how deeply Clinton was integrated into White House policymaking when her husband was president.

"I can't believe there's any major issue -- in fact, any issue at all -- that she did not discuss with her husband, formally or informally," said Mickey Kantor, a former U.S. trade representative and commerce secretary in the Clinton administration.

But where she disagreed with her husband, she often did not prevail. She advocated intervention in Rwanda's genocidal civil war that never came, and she was "very skeptical" that side agreements for the North American Free Trade Agreement on labor rights and environmental standards went far enough, Kantor said. And while she championed the cause of poor children at the Children's Defense Fund, she was "strangely quiet" during the Clinton administration's debate over welfare reform, a debate that caused open ruptures when President Bill Clinton decided to sign the Republican welfare overhaul into law, said one administration insider involved in the welfare debate.

Mindful of the electorate's anti-Washington streak, her camp also emphasizes that her experience goes beyond her eight years as first lady and her seven in the U.S. Senate. Her resume includes heading two committees for the American Bar Association, longtime service on the board of the advocacy group Children's Defense Fund, chairing the board of the Legal Services Corporation, and her position championing education reform in Arkansas.

That quadrant of her resume puts her more in line with Obama, who is more apt to emphasize his experience as a community organizer in Chicago than as a freshman senator in Washington. To Obama supporters, the emphasis is understandable. Exposure to Washington only creates ties that bind to the status quo.

"The past has hooks," Hodes said.

David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, said that "a willingness to challenge conventional ways of thinking," not a conventional r¿sum¿, is what matters in the election of 2008. "Senator Obama believes judgment is what's most important in office and as commander in chief," Plouffe said.

"Change is a collaborative process," Wolfson counters. "We're not talking about single-handedly making change. We're talking about knowing how to effect change."

But in competing with Obama's pitch as the race's clean slate, Clinton may have effectively shifted the fight to Obama's turf.

"Instead of running her election, she seems to be trying to mimic his election, and she cannot do so," Hart said. "She has a superlative case to make as an agent of change, but she's become a candidate of reaction. She's lost her self-confidence."
Howie P.S.: On the campaign trail and in tv ads Obama touts his passage in the U.S. Senate of the "strongest ethics and campaign reform bill since Watergate." I don't know why the author did not reference this. Another story, "Independent Voters May Give Obama Edge in Iowa" lands on the WaPo front page today.

"Election theft won't be tolerated: Obama"

Chicago Sun-Times:
JEFFERSON, Iowa -- White House hopeful Barack Obama came out swinging Monday when asked if he would fight another "stolen presidential election" like some Democrats believe happened the last two times.
But his "fighting" stance contrasts sharply with the vote he took on his very first day in the U.S. Senate where he joined the 74-1 majority voting not to challenge President Bush's disputed victory in Ohio. The Congressional Black Caucus urged him to be the second "yes" vote, but he declined.

At a town hall meeting in rural Jefferson on Monday, undecided voter Bruce Banister, 56, asked Obama, "The last two presidential elections have been very dirty, and for me there have been very serious questions about whether George Bush was even legally elected. I want to know if we have another dirty election and you are the candidate, if you think it is dirty, will you back off like Gore and Kerry did or will you fight?"

Obama replied, "I intend to whoop 'em so good that it won't even be close and they can't steal the election."

After sustained cheers, laughter and applause, Obama added that he would hope to win over enough independents and Republicans in the general election that, "We aren't going to have 47 percent on one side, 47 percent on the other side, 5 percent in the middle and they all live in Ohio and Florida so you only campaign in two states."

Then Obama gave the hard-charging answer Banister was looking for: "If for any reason this thing is close, we will fight it tooth and nail till the end. The nice thing is, I'm a voting-rights attorney as well as a civil rights attorney."

That was enough to persuade Banister, a rare-guitar dealer, to commit to supporting Obama over his other choice, John Edwards, in Thursday night's caucus.

All the main candidates hoping to win Thursday's caucuses criss-crossed the state Monday seeking to win over undecideds like Banister. Obama is locked in an apparent three-way tie with fellow Democratic front-runners Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.

Obama did not mention in his answer to Banister the controversy that greeted him on his first day in the Senate. He faced angering party leaders on his first day by voting not to join Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and African-American congressmen in rejecting the vote totals from Ohio, where Democrats say faulty voting machines and bad voter-registration policies threw the close election to Bush.

Obama said through chief strategist David Axelrod that he voted to accept the results because Kerry himself said he did not want to fight it.

At his first three events Monday, Obama faced questions from undecided voters about what he would do to stop illegal immigration. Obama said he would tighten the borders and crack down on employers who hire illegal aliens but would also support a "path to citizenship" for those already here.

"HUCKABEE'S "SECRET WEAPON" -- BLOGGERS IN IOWA"

Ari Melber (The Nation):
Mike Huckabee huddled with a smattering of conservative bloggers a today, in a Des Moines hotel room packed with reporters and television cameras. "The greatest secret weapon we have is over 700 dedicated bloggers to get our message out to people," said Huckabee, who credited conservative web activists -- the "RightRoots" -- for catapulting him past better funded establishment candidates.
"We don't have the kind of money that other campaigns have," he explained, "a lot of the reason is because of the 700 bloggers out there pounding away on their keyboards and hitting the send button and making magic happen."

Huckabee was flanked by actor Chuck Norris, who continues to deliver both star power and counterpunches against Romney on the campaign trail. "It was bloggers who introduced Chuck Norris to the Huckabee campaign," said Huckabee, recounting how Republican bloggers were the first to alert his aides to an October WorldNetDaily column announcing Norris's endorsement. The campaign drew over half a million dollars in donations after the endorsement. Today Norris floated a proposal for a "virtual barbeque" fundraiser at his 700-acre Texas Ranch on January 20th, which would tap web activists from around the country. The bloggers in attendance, who hailed from as far as Florida, Tennessee and Texas, in addition to local Iowa activists, responded enthusiastically to the idea.

Then Huckabee and Norris jumped on a telephone conference call with web supporters, fielding questions about the campaign, education policy and how Christian values motivate Huckabee. Huckabee credited the No Child Left Behind program for showing that "Every child in every school is important as an individual," while contending that it did not fund enough programs tailored to serve students with disabilities nor provide sufficient music and art classes, which are crucial to developing the "left and right brain of the students."

Nick Shayko, a 22-year-old who writes a small blog, "My Life as a Christian Conservative," said he thought Huckabee did a good job speaking with bloggers today. "He's right on all issues hat I love is he is a conservative and part of the social conservative movement," he added.
2008-01-01-Photo130.jpg Mike Huckabee speaks to web activists across the country during a conference call in Des Moines on Tuesday.

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

"Nader Backs Edwards"

Politics.com:
MUSCATINE, Iowa — Ralph Nader unleashed on Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Monday — criticizing her for being soft on defense spending and a chum of big business — and expressed his strong support for John Edwards.
In an eleventh hour effort to encourage liberal Iowans to "recognize" the former North Carolina senator by "giving him a victory," the activist and former presidential contender said in an interview that Clinton will "pander to corporate interest groups" if elected.

Nader specifically accused Clinton of failing to challenge military spending because "she is a woman who doesn't want to be labeled as soft on defense, and she doesn't want to be shown as taking on big business."

As Clinton campaigned through a snowstorm in southeast Iowa, pledging to "bring about the changes we need," Nader accused the Democratic senator from New York of using empty rhetoric.

"[Clinton] has not led the way against the avalanche of military contracting, corporate crime, fraud and abuse," he said. "We want to inform the people of Iowa about Hillary Clinton because all the focus is on, do they have the experience and do they have the personal charisma, and can they cross the aisle" Nader said.

"The issue is corporate power and who controls our political system and it's not who has experience for six years or two years," he said, alluding to an ongoing debate over experience between Clinton and freshman Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois.

"She has experience in the Senate, and what that experience has meant is going soft on cracking down on corporate crime, fraud, and abuse, soft on cutting tens of millions in corporate subsidies," he continued.

The Clinton campaign declined to comment on Nader's criticism.

Nader, a four-time presidential candidate, called Edwards a Democratic "glimmer of hope." He has long criticized Democrats as indistinguishable from Republicans, chiding both parties as slaves to corporate financing and interests.

It was Nader who famously — or infamously to many Democrats — siphoned off enough liberal votes from Al Gore in 2000 to hand New Hampshire and Florida, and as a result, the presidency, to George W. Bush. Since 2004, however, Nader has been increasingly controversial within the political left. He was booed at a national conference of progressives earlier this year.

But he remains a popular figure among some liberals. Activists are particularly influential in the Iowa caucuses, if only because participation asks hours of voters' time. Only a small portion of Iowa Democrats caucused in 2004.

Clinton is currently locked in a heated three-way race with Obama and Edwards in Iowa, the first contest of the presidential primaries.

On Monday, Nader also issued a public statement criticizing Clinton as a "corporate Democrat," echoing the exact words Edwards uses to challenge Clinton. Nader said he has watched Edwards from afar and sees his more pugilistic brand of populism as an encouraging sign.

"It's the only time I've heard a Democrat talk that way in a long time," Nader said, acknowledging what was, for him, a rare moment of praise for a Democratic leader.

"Iowa should decide which candidate stands for us," he added. "Edwards is at least highlighting day after day that the issue is who controls our country: big business or the people?"

"KUCINICH BACKS OBAMA IN IOWA"

Ari Berman (The Nation):
Barack Obama got a boost among progressive Democrats in Iowa today when Dennis Kucinich announced that he was asking his supporters to back Obama in the second round of voting at the caucus.

The arcane rules of the Iowa caucus require a candidate to receive 15 percent of the vote at a given caucus location in order to qualify for delegates. After the first round of voting, supporters of candidates who are not "viable" can choose their second, top tier choice. In '04 Kucinich urged his supporters, in a surprising move, to back John Edwards, helping to boost his margin in liberal areas. Edwards has moved to the left since then, yet this time Kucinich went with Obama. "Sen. Obama and I have one thing in common: Change," Kucinich said in a press release today.

Kucinich hasn't campaigned much in Iowa this time around but he retains a loyal band of followers. In a tight race between Edwards and Obama among liberal Democrats here, Kucinich could give Obama an edge.

"Obama-labor relationship tense in Iowa"

Ben Smith:
Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign manager has spent the final days of the Iowa campaign railing against “big interests” that have poured a “flood of Washington money” into the state in “underhanded” efforts to support his rivals.

But more than three-quarters of that money has come from a pillar of the Democratic Party: labor unions.
And top union officials who support Obama’s rivals are in turn accusing the Illinois Democrat, who once sought their endorsements, of trying to damage labor’s political role.

“I’m taken aback that somebody like Obama would think that Oprah Winfrey has a greater right to participate in the political process than the 4 million people I represent,” Edward J. McElroy, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, which has spent $799,619 on New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s behalf, said, referring to the television host’s high-profile support for Obama. “It’s sour grapes. It sounds just like the charges the Republicans make.”

Gerald W. McEntee, the president of the other major union supporting Clinton,wrote on The Huffington Post that “the Obama campaign’s criticism of our political action committee and some of the so-called 527 efforts, such as the one organized in support of [John] Edwards, is troubling because they are suggesting that workers are somehow a special interest, just like insurance companies and the pharmaceutical industry.”

”We fight for the general interest,” wrote McEntee, whose American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees has spent $1,409,312 boosting Clinton and criticizing Obama.

Jennifer Farmer, a spokeswoman for an Ohio Service Employees International Union council — one of several unions that have given more than $1 million combined to a fund that aids Edwards — dismissed Obama’s complaints as “politics as usual.”

The independent support — $2.7 million on Clinton’s behalf and $2.1 million on Edwards’ at the last count — is flowing simply at too high a volume for Obama to shrug off, and it’s immediately noticeable on the airwaves and in the mailboxes in Iowa.

So his campaign has tried to make the most of it, using it to raise money in urgent e-mails, to cast him as a reformer to reform-minded Iowans, and to cast Edwards — who says he opposes the spending — as a hypocrite.

Obama himself has avoided denouncing the union spending. “I love labor,” he said, when asked directly last week whether he thought the unions had a right to spend. He said his problem was with contradictions in Edwards’ stance.

He has also said he’ll accept outside funding if he’s the Democratic nominee, unless his Republican opponent also turns it down.

(McEntee cited a quote from New York Times columnist Paul Krugman in which Obama appears to refer to labor unions as “special interests,” but Obama has never said that directly.)

Obama’s staff, however, has aggressively pushed the suggestion that the spending itself is in some way untoward, and has at times downplayed labor’s role in it.

“Outside groups are in the process of pouring more than $3.2 million into Iowa to support Hillary Clinton and John Edwards,” wrote Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe, in an e-mail solicitation on Dec. 27.

The e-mail referred to AFSCME as “Hillary Clinton’s friends from Washington” and didn’t include the word “labor” or “union.”

“Instead of benefiting from $3.2 million in money from big interests over the next week, we’re asking 32,000 new supporters to give whatever they can afford,” he wrote.

He was more direct in a memo to reporters, naming the unions, lobby groups and wealthy individuals involved.

“There is no doubt that the size of the spending and its underhanded nature deserve further scrutiny,” Plouffe wrote.

The campaign also released a letter from an AFSCME member in Iowa who wrote that she was dropping out of the union in disgust at their attacks on Obama.

Obama’s spokesman, Bill Burton, didn’t respond directly to a question of whether the labor spending is appropriate, referring instead to past statements. And many of Obama’s senior aides have worked for, or benefited from, independent spending in the past.

In 2004, for instance, Plouffe managed the campaign of House Democratic leader Richard Gephardt, while Obama’s communications director, Robert Gibbs, worked for an independent group funded by Gephardt supporters that aired a notorious ad attacking former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean’s national security credentials by using the visage of Osama bin Laden.

Plouffe didn’t make clear in his memo which tactics he was describing as “underhanded.” But Obama’s campaign has been particularly critical of AFSCME’s mailings, which can be misleading: The mailings criticize Obama’s health care plan and include a quotes from Edwards, which could lead readers to blame the attack on Edwards.

The AFSCME tactics have produced some ambivalence within the labor movement, as well.

“The law is the law and people can do what they can do,” said the president of the International Association of Fire Fighters, Harold A. Schaitberger, whose union has supported Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) for president in newspaper ads and billboards.

But he said his spending always makes clear that it’s communicating his members’ endorsement.

“You should be very, very straight up what you’re doing, as opposed to sometimes creating illusions about who you are and what you’re doing on behalf of who,” he said, adding that he is “not critical of any of my colleagues” in labor.

Others have suggested that Obama could pay for his distance from labor if he becomes the nominee, as Democrats traditionally rely heavily on unions for organizational support.

“They really run the risk of depressing the enthusiasm for him as a potential nominee,” said AFSCME political director Larry Scanlon.

Others, however, doubt whether labor can afford not to support any of the Democratic nominees — all of whom have promised to ease union organizing and tighten trade restrictions — against the nominee of a Republican Party who’s often openly hostile to organized labor.

“It’s a choice of allowing a party that is trying to kill it to keep power versus a Democratic Party, which isn’t always the greatest ally, but is an ally and isn’t out to kill it every day,” said Jonathan Tasini, the executive director of a pro-labor research group, the Labor Research Association.

He predicted that “whoever is the nominee of the Democratic Party is going to have 1,000 percent labor backing.”

"Edwards's Closing Ad" (with video)

Chris Cillizza (WaPo's political blog, The Fix):
DES MOINES, Iowa -- Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards will close his Iowa campaign with an ad featuring an emotional appeal from an unemployed Maytag employee named Doug Bishop.

The 60-second commercial will run statewide during the 5:30 news tomorrow and Thursday and dovetails with a full page ad in the Des Moines Register that also features Bishop.

It's not far fetched to see the spot as a direct response to the two-minute "ad" Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's (N.Y.) campaign plans to run the night before the caucuses on every 6 pm newscast in the state.

Laid off in September 2004, Bishop and his family were invited to meet Edwards who at the time was the Democrats' vice presidential nominee. As Bishop tells the story of that gathering, Edwards bent down, looked his seven-year old son in the eye and said: "I'm going to keep fighting for your daddy's job, I promise you that."

"That's the kind of things we need in a leader in this country," Bishop adds. "Not somebody who is going to go to a big fundraiser and say write me a check for $2,300 and I'll let you know you have my support."

The television ad echoes the "people versus the powerful" message that Edwards has pushed over the final week of the campaign. (Seeing Edwards in person over the last few days, we've been struck by the similarities between the rhetoric espoused by then Vice President Al Gore in 2000 and Edwards in this campaign.)

All signs point to an Edwards mini-surge in Iowa although the latest Des Moines Register poll -- released late last night -- put him in third place, behind Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Clinton.

The Edwards campaign -- wary of losing all-important momentum in the final days before the caucus -- released a memo from their own pollster taking issue with the Register survey.

"Is the poll accurate? There are good reasons to think it is NOT," wrote Harrison Hickman in the memo -- citing the fact the poll was in the field over the holidays, the poll's high number of estimated first-time caucus goers (60 percent) and the number of Republicans and Independents (45 percent) that comprise the sample. Hickman also cites the column written by Register political guru David Yepsen on the survey, pointing out that Yepsen writes that "the nightly results show Obama's support flat over the last two nights, Clinton's declining each night, and Edwards' support increasing each night."

In these last few days, molehills become mountains overnight. So, be careful not to read too much into any one poll even one with as good a track record as the Des Moines Register. From everything we hear on the ground, this race is tight and getting tighter between the Big 3.
Howie P.S.: More hope for Edwards here, with "Second Choices Give Edwards Clear Lead in Iowa" via Political Wire.

"Eye To Eye: Obama's Final Push (CBS News)"


CBS, video (03:13):
With only three days before the votes are cast in Iowa, White House hopefuls are out stumping in full force. Dean Reynolds sat down with democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama who's fighting his way to the finish.
Howie P.S.: Dan Balz and Shailagh Murray slice and dice the latest poll and all things Iowan this morning in the WaPo with "Poll Shows Obama With 7-Point Lead In Iowa Contest." CBS has video, (02:03) about Michelle Obama that calls her "The Closer." Pollster.com ranks the pollsters and puts the Des Moines Register on top. John Nichols weighs in with "LAST REGISTER POLL: OBAMA UP IN TIGHT, FLUID RACE" in The Nation. Markos gets on the Taylor Marsh bandwagon, by shitting on Obama for deciding to "shit on Gore." Marc Ambinder gives Obama's major opponents the microphone with "Obama Rivals Say Des Moines Register Poll Can't Be Trusted."


"Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

Markos:

Polling the Iowa caucuses is notoriously difficult, and while none nailed the entrance poll results in 2004, the Des Moines Register's effort came closest by far:

Just hours ago, the Register released its final poll of the contest:

Des Moines Register. 12/27-30. Likely Democratic caucusgoers. (11/25-28 results)

Obama 32 (28)
Clinton 25 (25)
Edwards 24 (23)

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all that jazz. It's a poll, and one that doesn't seem to pick up the Edwards surge we've seen in other polls. The Edwards campaign is defensive about the results, which I guess is understandable but whatever. It's all spin at this point. This thing is tight enough that the second-choices can push anyone over the top. This poll has Richardson at 6% (much lower than in some other polls, which show him breaking into double digits), Biden at 4%, Dodd at 2%, and another 6% uncommitted. Throw in Kucinich's 1 percent, and we have 19 percent of caucus goers who can tip any of the top three candidates over the top. And that's assuming no deals are cut between candidates.

Despite the cheers of some candidates' supporters, and the wails of others, all this poll tells us is what all the other polls have told us -- any of the top three candidates can win, and anyone that tries to "predict" which one will do so has the same 1 in 3 chance of getting it right as anyone else.

Howie P.S.: Markos downplays the DMR poll's recent accurate track record.