"Edwards's Closing Ad" (with video)

Chris Cillizza (WaPo's political blog, The Fix):

DES MOINES, Iowa -- Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards will close his Iowa campaign with an ad featuring an emotional appeal from an unemployed Maytag employee named Doug Bishop.

The 60-second commercial will run statewide during the 5:30 news tomorrow and Thursday and dovetails with a full page ad in the Des Moines Register that also features Bishop.

It's not far fetched to see the spot as a direct response to the two-minute "ad" Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's (N.Y.) campaign plans to run the night before the caucuses on every 6 pm newscast in the state.

Laid off in September 2004, Bishop and his family were invited to meet Edwards who at the time was the Democrats' vice presidential nominee. As Bishop tells the story of that gathering, Edwards bent down, looked his seven-year old son in the eye and said: "I'm going to keep fighting for your daddy's job, I promise you that."

"That's the kind of things we need in a leader in this country," Bishop adds. "Not somebody who is going to go to a big fundraiser and say write me a check for $2,300 and I'll let you know you have my support."

The television ad echoes the "people versus the powerful" message that Edwards has pushed over the final week of the campaign. (Seeing Edwards in person over the last few days, we've been struck by the similarities between the rhetoric espoused by then Vice President Al Gore in 2000 and Edwards in this campaign.)

All signs point to an Edwards mini-surge in Iowa although the latest Des Moines Register poll -- released late last night -- put him in third place, behind Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Clinton.

The Edwards campaign -- wary of losing all-important momentum in the final days before the caucus -- released a memo from their own pollster taking issue with the Register survey.

"Is the poll accurate? There are good reasons to think it is NOT," wrote Harrison Hickman in the memo -- citing the fact the poll was in the field over the holidays, the poll's high number of estimated first-time caucus goers (60 percent) and the number of Republicans and Independents (45 percent) that comprise the sample. Hickman also cites the column written by Register political guru David Yepsen on the survey, pointing out that Yepsen writes that "the nightly results show Obama's support flat over the last two nights, Clinton's declining each night, and Edwards' support increasing each night."

In these last few days, molehills become mountains overnight. So, be careful not to read too much into any one poll even one with as good a track record as the Des Moines Register. From everything we hear on the ground, this race is tight and getting tighter between the Big 3.

Howie P.S.: More hope for Edwards here, with "Second Choices Give Edwards Clear Lead in Iowa" via Political Wire.