Thursday, January 03, 2008

LIVE Coverage of the Iowa Caucuses Today

Online here or on your tv, C-SPAN at 7pm ET (4pm PST).

Howie P.S.: Brave New Films is providing live video coverage of Iowa caucuses, as follows:
Cenk Uygur will be checking in with bloggers on the ground in Iowa and staffers from the different campaigns throughout the night. I'll be live blogging all the results, rumors, and scuttlebutt too. Come party with us!

http://bravenewfilms.org/election?utm_source=rgemail

WHEN: TONIGHT AT 7PM ET
HOSTS: Cenk Uygur, Ben Mankiewicz, and Wes Clark, Jr.
WHERE: http://bravenewfilms.org/election?utm_source=rgemail

SCHEDULE:
7:30pm ET: Adam Green, Moveon.org
7:45pm ET: Sam Seder, Air America
8:00pm ET: Faiz Shakir, Think Progress
8:15pm ET: Matt Stoller, Open Left
8:30pm ET: Sean Paul-Kelly, The Agonist
8:45pm ET: Todd Beeton, MyDD
9:00pm ET: Katrina vanden Heuvel, The Nation

ALSO SCHEDULED TO APPEAR:
Ellen Brodsky, News Hounds
Steve Clemons, The Washington Note
Ari Melber, The Nation
Richard Wolffe, Newsweek

See you online tonight,
Jim Gilliam, Leighton Woodhouse, and everyone at Brave New Films and the Young Turks.

"Obama wins Drinking Liberally pre-Iowa Caucus Caucus"

Dan Kirkdorffer:
Tonight (Wednesday) the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally held a pre-Iowa Caucus Caucus. There were about 50 participants and after an initial tally gave Edwards a 20 to 15 person lead over Obama, the final results came in with Obama on top:

Seattle Drinking Liberally pre-Iowa Caucus Caucus Results

mcjoan at Daily Kos was live blogging the event, and a good time was had by all.

Tomorrow we'll see how the surely numb and saturated Iowan caucus voters decide. Indications are it will be very close between Obama, Edwards and Clinton, with perhaps an outcome that decides nothing.....

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

"Leader": Barack Obama’s Closing 2-Minute Iowa TV Ad


"Leader." video (02:00).

Iowa coverage tomorrow, live results from Seattle Drinking Liberally's caucus

Andrew (NWPI):
UPDATE: The final results are as follows:

CandidateSigned in Supporters Delegates Won
Hillary Clinton 5 - 4th Place 1 delegate
Chris Dodd 13 - 3rd Place 2 delegates
John Edwards 16 - 2nd Place 2 delegates
Barack Obama 17 - 1st Place 2 delegates

We had a tie between Dodd, Edwards, and Obama, while Clinton came in fourth - all other candidates were eliminated. The Kucinich, Richardson, and Gravel supporters switched en masse to Dodd along with two Edwards supporters - and another two defected to Barack Obama, for whatever reason.
-----------------------------------
If you're planning on paying any attention to what happens in Iowa tomorrow during the precinct caucuses (and who isn't?) be sure to check out our live coverage, both here on the Official Blog and at Pacific Northwest Portal, which will feature special feeds syndicating netroots writers who are on the ground in Iowa as well as our usual dynamic elections news ticker.

The local netroots community isn't waiting for the action tomorrow in Iowa, though... we're holding a special Drinking Liberally caucus now at the Montlake Ale House, which hosts the Seattle chapter's weekly gathering. Several dozen people are signed in, and these are the results of the first tabulation:

CandidateSigned in Supporters Delegates Won
Joe Biden 0None
Hillary Clinton 4 - 4th Place
1 delegate
Chris Dodd 6 - 3rd Place 1 delegate
John Edwards 20 - 1st Place
3 delegates
Mike Gravel 2None
Dennis Kucinich 2None
Barack Obama 15 - 2nd Place 2 delegates
Bill Richardson 1None
Uncommitted0N/A
Fred Harris1None

According to the Washington State Democratic Party's formula, these results would net 3 delegates for Edwards, 2 for Obama, and 1 each for Clinton and Dodd.

Round 2 is now underway... I'll post an update shortly.
Howie P.S.: I showed up and was surprised (pleasantly) how well Obama did with this group.

"John Edwards - "Wave Of Change" Ad - New Hampshire"


johnedwards, video (00:31):
John Edwards' latest campaign ad airing in New Hampshire.

"First presidential caucus to be held in Seattle... tonight!"

BlatherWatch:

Drinking_liberal_bottle Seattle's Drinking Liberally, that Tuesday night politico/alcoholic phenomenon will be on Wednesday this week and the first presidential caucus in the nation will be held.

It's at the Montlake Alehouse, 2307 24th Ave. E. at 7p.

Whether you're a Democrat or Republican-- come caucus for your favorite candidate.

(Republicans better show up or BlatherWatch could pick your candidate. It's a hard decision-- who to pick? Huck-a-bee, Giuliani, or Romney? they're all such losers for so many different reasons).

Not to be confused with the Beer Caucus held every Monday night at the Court Avenue Brewery in Des Moines, Iowa)

Our statistician, Darryl at Hominid Views gives a stunning synopsis of recent Iowa polling here.
Howie P.S.: At this point in time, I am "undecided" about attending, as I am not as "audacious" as my preferred candidate and fear being swift-boated and slimed by my fellow Seattle DLers. They are all "angry" Edwards people. Am I the only one who thinks Trippi is behind the "angry" Edwards?

SLOGGING through Iowa with John Edwards

Eli Sanders (The Stranger's blog, "SLOG"):
Oh look, it’s 5 a.m. again. They tell me I’m in Ottumwa. While we have another brief moment of electricity, warmth, and wireless, some more photoblogging from the Edwards up-all-night bus tour.
12:00 a.m. Jan 2
Atlantic, Iowa. This was a farm house, very American pastoral, where John and Elizabeth Edwards had cornbread and black-eyed peas…

scaled.Elizabeth12AM.JPG

…and reporters took notes through indoor windows dressed in lacy trim (in the background is the cutest wood burning cooking stove ever)…

scaled.Window12AM.JPG

…and the farmer who owns the house looked like this:

scaled.Farmer12AM.JPG

2:15 a.m. Jan 2
Creston, Iowa. This stop was notable for the fact that we got to sleep two hours before it happened. The drill now is this: Sleep, fret about battery life, wake up, ask where you are, have no idea what it means, pull on jacket, know it won’t help that much, step out into the dark, feel physically ill from the temperature difference, and find yourself, say, in a lovely house with blue interior.

scaled.Blue215AM.JPG

The stump speech keeps getting shorter, and I feel like I could give it myself by now… “Fight for you,” “stand up,” “this is very personal to me…”

Only about 15 more hours and 8 more stops to go. See you at the next stop with wireless. Meanwhile I hear the sun just came up.

scaled.Morning530AM.JPG

It’s morning in America, wherever in America I am, and it’s time to get back on the bus.
Howie P.S.: More SLOGGING here. Oh yeah, the Des Moines Register tagged along, too. And the NY Times adds a few amusing details. Michael Moore chimes in with his feelings about the top three democratic candidates and finishes with a few nicer words for Mr. Edwards.

"Crossroads": Final Iowa Clinton ad (video)


hillaryclintondotcom, video (02:00):
Hillary asks Iowans to take the first step toward a new beginning by caucusing for her on January 3.

"LIVE FROM EDWARDS ALL-NIGHTER FOR ECONOMIC JUSTICE"

Ari Melber (The Nation):
It is two in the morning and Jan Knock is waiting for John Edwards to walk through her front door. Knock, a precinct captain in the tiny town of Creston, is hosting the toughest shift in the finale to Edwards' resilient Iowa campaign, a 36-hour statewide juggernaut dubbed the "Marathon for the Middle Class."
Skipping from supporters' homes to ramshackle field offices to café meetings with what might be some of the last undecided activists in Southwestern Iowa, Edwards belts out a spare but supercharged iteration of his populist stump speech. "This is personal for me," he thunders, recounting how his family's hardships have fortified his resolve to fight for economic justice.

And it's personal for some people who stayed up late to see him.

After a midnight speech in Council Bluffs, a young woman approached Edwards and told him she could not afford the medical bills under her health insurance. It is wrong that people in this country can't get basic health care, she said, her voice cracking with emotion, as Edwards pulled her into a tight hug. Her father, Paul Dreher, said he came to the event "halfway undecided," and after hearing about Edwards's commitment to working people, he will caucus for him on Thursday.

Edwards also appeared to move the crowd in Creston, especially his hostess Ms. Knock. "He speaks to me, to my very soul," she said. Knock thinks the combination of a core "loyal" support network and wide popularity among Iowa Democrats will make Edwards the winner on Thursday. "He's a strong second choice, I have friends who have gone with Edwards or Biden or Dodd – all by the way, incredible candidates, the slate is just incredible, but Edwards is their second choice," she explained. Kathy Tapken, a 64-year-old guest at the Creston gathering, said she also planned to back Edwards on Thursday, which will be her very first caucus.

Edwards Campaign Manager David Bonior estimates that Iowans' second choices, which can tip the race in second round voting, will secure Edwards' victory on Thursday. "We know from our calling and our polling that we are the most popular second choice," he told The Nation. Bonior also said that recent attacks from the Obama Campaign indicate they are worried about Edwards' potential to win the caucus.

At a rustic farmhouse in Atlantic, Iowa, Edwards and his wife munched on chili and corn bread with a blue-collar crowd that ranged from several teenagers to more than one woman in her 80s. Helen Pigg, who still remembers seeing President Roosevelt on a train tour through Atlantic in 1936, said she was committed to caucusing for Edwards, just as she did in 2004. She told me, "I like what he stands for – for the common guy."

2008-01-02-Picture1.png

Elizabeth Edwards with a supporter in Creston, Iowa last night.

"For Democrats, Change Is of the Essence" (with video)

WaPo,page one with video (01:51)
The Democratic nomination fight once appeared to be a contest over issues: the Iraq war, Iran, universal health care and economic uncertainty. But as the candidates' positions have melded, they have found themselves agreeing that voters are ready for the changes they are all proposing -- but fighting fiercely over who can deliver.
To Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, it takes experience in the policy trenches of Washington to effect the shifts in health care, economic and foreign policies that Democratic voters are demanding of their president. To Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, that kind of experience is a hindrance, not a help, because exposure to the policy elites diminishes creativity and creates ties to the status quo that are not easily broken. And to former senator John Edwards of North Carolina, experience is beside the point. Change comes through a passion for battle.

"Iraq is still a pretty important issue for Democratic voters and caucusgoers. There's health care, the economy," said Clinton campaign communications director Howard Wolfson. "But I think it is fair to say the overall desire for change out there is now the overwhelming driver."

All sides agree the electorate at least says it is in no mood for a candidate that embodies the status quo, or even incremental movement. Last month, Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart and Republican pollster Bill McInturff asked voters whether they felt the country needs to keep a steady course, with small adjustments; whether America needs to turn the page and start a new chapter, with moderate policy corrections; or whether the country needs major reforms and "a brand new and different approach" to the problems the United States faces. Twenty-four percent wanted small adjustments. Twenty-nine percent wanted to turn the page. Forty-six percent said they want a brand new book.

A poll released New Year's Eve by the Des Moines Register showed the same thing: When asked to choose, likely caucusgoers are more apt to desire change than an impeccable resume. Obama has the edge on change and Clinton holds a large advantage on experience.

As the fresh face in the race who is proclaiming he is beyond partisan politics, "Obama is reading the mood correctly and is playing in a field which is perfectly tuned for 2008," Hart said. "But against that is a second element: We're in a scary time. As much as we want change, we want change with a sense of self-confidence."

That dichotomy crystallizes just why Obama and Clinton seem to be so deadlocked, said Rep. Paul W. Hodes (D-N.H.), an Obama supporter with a political ear to the ground in the Granite State. In 2004, Hodes ran against Republican Charles Bass and was crushed by 20 percentage points. In his 2006 rematch, he won by 8 percentage points.

"If you have one candidate selling her experience working within government -- 'I lived in the White House, and I know what you need' -- versus another candidate saying, 'I organized communities, I know what people are thinking and I'm a relative newcomer to Washington who's seen enough to know things aren't working there,' that's a powerful choice," Hodes said.

But, he added, it's not one with a clear winner.

"We have a chemical in our brain that preserves the status quo," Hodes said. "While we may want change and know we need the change, sometimes it's hard medicine to swallow."

Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.), whose own attempt to present himself as the most experienced Democratic candidate in the race has had little success, made clear last week that he does not think either Obama or Clinton -- or, for that matter, Edwards -- has much to point to as a senator.

"John doesn't have a record in the Senate. John's only passed four bills. They're all about post offices. I mean, literally," said Biden, elected in 1972 and the longest-serving member of Congress running for president this year. "Most freshmen senators don't get much done. Don't get much passed. Barack Obama hasn't passed any. There's not a major bill I know with Hillary's name on it."

From perhaps his most prominent foreign policy perch, the chairmanship of the Foreign Relations European Affairs subcommittee, Obama did not convene a single hearing in 2007. Of the 85 hearings convened by the full Foreign Relations Committee since the Democrats took back control of the Senate, Obama presided over two -- one on June 21, another on Feb. 27, both to consider nominations.

As chairman of the Environment and Public Works subcommittee on Superfund and environmental health, Clinton has called three oversight hearings. But from her more prominent post, on the Armed Services Committee, Clinton has a mixed record. Of the panel's 55 hearings, a transcript review by The Washington Post found her in attendance at 60 percent, compared with the 71 percent attended by another presidential hopeful, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

According to available transcripts, Clinton attended 35 percent of the Environment and Public Works Committee hearings of the 109th Congress, compared with Obama's 59 percent.

Edwards's one term in the Senate was spent mostly in the minority, without even a subcommittee chairmanship.

Clinton has positioned herself as the candidate of experience, the one ready to hit the presidency running and the one with the inside knowledge of Washington necessary to secure an agenda. "I'm not asking you to take me on a leap of faith," Clinton told a packed auditorium in Ames, Iowa, yesterday, listing her resume both as a lawyer and as a first lady.

But it is a tricky place for her. Was she a wife with a front-row seat in the Clinton years, or was she an integral part of the policy apparatus, responsible for her husband's failures as well as his successes? Was her failed effort to come up with a national health plan a sign of her ineffectiveness or a hard-won lesson for the future?

Since the assassination of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto, both Clintons have been on the campaign stump, speaking of the hair-raising, dangerous journeys Hillary Clinton took as first lady to international hot spots, including a stomach-churning "corkscrew" landing into Bosnia.

"If a place was too dangerous, too poor or too small, send the first lady," she told voters in Dubuque on Saturday. But as she described in her autobiography, "Living History," she was apparently not alone in her bravery. That goodwill flight to Bosnia included comedian Sinbad, singer Sheryl Crow and her own teenage daughter, Chelsea.

Her supporters like to point out just how deeply Clinton was integrated into White House policymaking when her husband was president.

"I can't believe there's any major issue -- in fact, any issue at all -- that she did not discuss with her husband, formally or informally," said Mickey Kantor, a former U.S. trade representative and commerce secretary in the Clinton administration.

But where she disagreed with her husband, she often did not prevail. She advocated intervention in Rwanda's genocidal civil war that never came, and she was "very skeptical" that side agreements for the North American Free Trade Agreement on labor rights and environmental standards went far enough, Kantor said. And while she championed the cause of poor children at the Children's Defense Fund, she was "strangely quiet" during the Clinton administration's debate over welfare reform, a debate that caused open ruptures when President Bill Clinton decided to sign the Republican welfare overhaul into law, said one administration insider involved in the welfare debate.

Mindful of the electorate's anti-Washington streak, her camp also emphasizes that her experience goes beyond her eight years as first lady and her seven in the U.S. Senate. Her resume includes heading two committees for the American Bar Association, longtime service on the board of the advocacy group Children's Defense Fund, chairing the board of the Legal Services Corporation, and her position championing education reform in Arkansas.

That quadrant of her resume puts her more in line with Obama, who is more apt to emphasize his experience as a community organizer in Chicago than as a freshman senator in Washington. To Obama supporters, the emphasis is understandable. Exposure to Washington only creates ties that bind to the status quo.

"The past has hooks," Hodes said.

David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, said that "a willingness to challenge conventional ways of thinking," not a conventional r¿sum¿, is what matters in the election of 2008. "Senator Obama believes judgment is what's most important in office and as commander in chief," Plouffe said.

"Change is a collaborative process," Wolfson counters. "We're not talking about single-handedly making change. We're talking about knowing how to effect change."

But in competing with Obama's pitch as the race's clean slate, Clinton may have effectively shifted the fight to Obama's turf.

"Instead of running her election, she seems to be trying to mimic his election, and she cannot do so," Hart said. "She has a superlative case to make as an agent of change, but she's become a candidate of reaction. She's lost her self-confidence."
Howie P.S.: On the campaign trail and in tv ads Obama touts his passage in the U.S. Senate of the "strongest ethics and campaign reform bill since Watergate." I don't know why the author did not reference this. Another story, "Independent Voters May Give Obama Edge in Iowa" lands on the WaPo front page today.

"Election theft won't be tolerated: Obama"

Chicago Sun-Times:
JEFFERSON, Iowa -- White House hopeful Barack Obama came out swinging Monday when asked if he would fight another "stolen presidential election" like some Democrats believe happened the last two times.
But his "fighting" stance contrasts sharply with the vote he took on his very first day in the U.S. Senate where he joined the 74-1 majority voting not to challenge President Bush's disputed victory in Ohio. The Congressional Black Caucus urged him to be the second "yes" vote, but he declined.

At a town hall meeting in rural Jefferson on Monday, undecided voter Bruce Banister, 56, asked Obama, "The last two presidential elections have been very dirty, and for me there have been very serious questions about whether George Bush was even legally elected. I want to know if we have another dirty election and you are the candidate, if you think it is dirty, will you back off like Gore and Kerry did or will you fight?"

Obama replied, "I intend to whoop 'em so good that it won't even be close and they can't steal the election."

After sustained cheers, laughter and applause, Obama added that he would hope to win over enough independents and Republicans in the general election that, "We aren't going to have 47 percent on one side, 47 percent on the other side, 5 percent in the middle and they all live in Ohio and Florida so you only campaign in two states."

Then Obama gave the hard-charging answer Banister was looking for: "If for any reason this thing is close, we will fight it tooth and nail till the end. The nice thing is, I'm a voting-rights attorney as well as a civil rights attorney."

That was enough to persuade Banister, a rare-guitar dealer, to commit to supporting Obama over his other choice, John Edwards, in Thursday night's caucus.

All the main candidates hoping to win Thursday's caucuses criss-crossed the state Monday seeking to win over undecideds like Banister. Obama is locked in an apparent three-way tie with fellow Democratic front-runners Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.

Obama did not mention in his answer to Banister the controversy that greeted him on his first day in the Senate. He faced angering party leaders on his first day by voting not to join Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and African-American congressmen in rejecting the vote totals from Ohio, where Democrats say faulty voting machines and bad voter-registration policies threw the close election to Bush.

Obama said through chief strategist David Axelrod that he voted to accept the results because Kerry himself said he did not want to fight it.

At his first three events Monday, Obama faced questions from undecided voters about what he would do to stop illegal immigration. Obama said he would tighten the borders and crack down on employers who hire illegal aliens but would also support a "path to citizenship" for those already here.

"HUCKABEE'S "SECRET WEAPON" -- BLOGGERS IN IOWA"

Ari Melber (The Nation):
Mike Huckabee huddled with a smattering of conservative bloggers a today, in a Des Moines hotel room packed with reporters and television cameras. "The greatest secret weapon we have is over 700 dedicated bloggers to get our message out to people," said Huckabee, who credited conservative web activists -- the "RightRoots" -- for catapulting him past better funded establishment candidates.
"We don't have the kind of money that other campaigns have," he explained, "a lot of the reason is because of the 700 bloggers out there pounding away on their keyboards and hitting the send button and making magic happen."

Huckabee was flanked by actor Chuck Norris, who continues to deliver both star power and counterpunches against Romney on the campaign trail. "It was bloggers who introduced Chuck Norris to the Huckabee campaign," said Huckabee, recounting how Republican bloggers were the first to alert his aides to an October WorldNetDaily column announcing Norris's endorsement. The campaign drew over half a million dollars in donations after the endorsement. Today Norris floated a proposal for a "virtual barbeque" fundraiser at his 700-acre Texas Ranch on January 20th, which would tap web activists from around the country. The bloggers in attendance, who hailed from as far as Florida, Tennessee and Texas, in addition to local Iowa activists, responded enthusiastically to the idea.

Then Huckabee and Norris jumped on a telephone conference call with web supporters, fielding questions about the campaign, education policy and how Christian values motivate Huckabee. Huckabee credited the No Child Left Behind program for showing that "Every child in every school is important as an individual," while contending that it did not fund enough programs tailored to serve students with disabilities nor provide sufficient music and art classes, which are crucial to developing the "left and right brain of the students."

Nick Shayko, a 22-year-old who writes a small blog, "My Life as a Christian Conservative," said he thought Huckabee did a good job speaking with bloggers today. "He's right on all issues hat I love is he is a conservative and part of the social conservative movement," he added.
2008-01-01-Photo130.jpg Mike Huckabee speaks to web activists across the country during a conference call in Des Moines on Tuesday.

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

"Nader Backs Edwards"

Politics.com:
MUSCATINE, Iowa — Ralph Nader unleashed on Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Monday — criticizing her for being soft on defense spending and a chum of big business — and expressed his strong support for John Edwards.
In an eleventh hour effort to encourage liberal Iowans to "recognize" the former North Carolina senator by "giving him a victory," the activist and former presidential contender said in an interview that Clinton will "pander to corporate interest groups" if elected.

Nader specifically accused Clinton of failing to challenge military spending because "she is a woman who doesn't want to be labeled as soft on defense, and she doesn't want to be shown as taking on big business."

As Clinton campaigned through a snowstorm in southeast Iowa, pledging to "bring about the changes we need," Nader accused the Democratic senator from New York of using empty rhetoric.

"[Clinton] has not led the way against the avalanche of military contracting, corporate crime, fraud and abuse," he said. "We want to inform the people of Iowa about Hillary Clinton because all the focus is on, do they have the experience and do they have the personal charisma, and can they cross the aisle" Nader said.

"The issue is corporate power and who controls our political system and it's not who has experience for six years or two years," he said, alluding to an ongoing debate over experience between Clinton and freshman Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois.

"She has experience in the Senate, and what that experience has meant is going soft on cracking down on corporate crime, fraud, and abuse, soft on cutting tens of millions in corporate subsidies," he continued.

The Clinton campaign declined to comment on Nader's criticism.

Nader, a four-time presidential candidate, called Edwards a Democratic "glimmer of hope." He has long criticized Democrats as indistinguishable from Republicans, chiding both parties as slaves to corporate financing and interests.

It was Nader who famously — or infamously to many Democrats — siphoned off enough liberal votes from Al Gore in 2000 to hand New Hampshire and Florida, and as a result, the presidency, to George W. Bush. Since 2004, however, Nader has been increasingly controversial within the political left. He was booed at a national conference of progressives earlier this year.

But he remains a popular figure among some liberals. Activists are particularly influential in the Iowa caucuses, if only because participation asks hours of voters' time. Only a small portion of Iowa Democrats caucused in 2004.

Clinton is currently locked in a heated three-way race with Obama and Edwards in Iowa, the first contest of the presidential primaries.

On Monday, Nader also issued a public statement criticizing Clinton as a "corporate Democrat," echoing the exact words Edwards uses to challenge Clinton. Nader said he has watched Edwards from afar and sees his more pugilistic brand of populism as an encouraging sign.

"It's the only time I've heard a Democrat talk that way in a long time," Nader said, acknowledging what was, for him, a rare moment of praise for a Democratic leader.

"Iowa should decide which candidate stands for us," he added. "Edwards is at least highlighting day after day that the issue is who controls our country: big business or the people?"

"KUCINICH BACKS OBAMA IN IOWA"

Ari Berman (The Nation):
Barack Obama got a boost among progressive Democrats in Iowa today when Dennis Kucinich announced that he was asking his supporters to back Obama in the second round of voting at the caucus.

The arcane rules of the Iowa caucus require a candidate to receive 15 percent of the vote at a given caucus location in order to qualify for delegates. After the first round of voting, supporters of candidates who are not "viable" can choose their second, top tier choice. In '04 Kucinich urged his supporters, in a surprising move, to back John Edwards, helping to boost his margin in liberal areas. Edwards has moved to the left since then, yet this time Kucinich went with Obama. "Sen. Obama and I have one thing in common: Change," Kucinich said in a press release today.

Kucinich hasn't campaigned much in Iowa this time around but he retains a loyal band of followers. In a tight race between Edwards and Obama among liberal Democrats here, Kucinich could give Obama an edge.

"Obama-labor relationship tense in Iowa"

Ben Smith:
Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign manager has spent the final days of the Iowa campaign railing against “big interests” that have poured a “flood of Washington money” into the state in “underhanded” efforts to support his rivals.

But more than three-quarters of that money has come from a pillar of the Democratic Party: labor unions.
And top union officials who support Obama’s rivals are in turn accusing the Illinois Democrat, who once sought their endorsements, of trying to damage labor’s political role.

“I’m taken aback that somebody like Obama would think that Oprah Winfrey has a greater right to participate in the political process than the 4 million people I represent,” Edward J. McElroy, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, which has spent $799,619 on New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s behalf, said, referring to the television host’s high-profile support for Obama. “It’s sour grapes. It sounds just like the charges the Republicans make.”

Gerald W. McEntee, the president of the other major union supporting Clinton,wrote on The Huffington Post that “the Obama campaign’s criticism of our political action committee and some of the so-called 527 efforts, such as the one organized in support of [John] Edwards, is troubling because they are suggesting that workers are somehow a special interest, just like insurance companies and the pharmaceutical industry.”

”We fight for the general interest,” wrote McEntee, whose American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees has spent $1,409,312 boosting Clinton and criticizing Obama.

Jennifer Farmer, a spokeswoman for an Ohio Service Employees International Union council — one of several unions that have given more than $1 million combined to a fund that aids Edwards — dismissed Obama’s complaints as “politics as usual.”

The independent support — $2.7 million on Clinton’s behalf and $2.1 million on Edwards’ at the last count — is flowing simply at too high a volume for Obama to shrug off, and it’s immediately noticeable on the airwaves and in the mailboxes in Iowa.

So his campaign has tried to make the most of it, using it to raise money in urgent e-mails, to cast him as a reformer to reform-minded Iowans, and to cast Edwards — who says he opposes the spending — as a hypocrite.

Obama himself has avoided denouncing the union spending. “I love labor,” he said, when asked directly last week whether he thought the unions had a right to spend. He said his problem was with contradictions in Edwards’ stance.

He has also said he’ll accept outside funding if he’s the Democratic nominee, unless his Republican opponent also turns it down.

(McEntee cited a quote from New York Times columnist Paul Krugman in which Obama appears to refer to labor unions as “special interests,” but Obama has never said that directly.)

Obama’s staff, however, has aggressively pushed the suggestion that the spending itself is in some way untoward, and has at times downplayed labor’s role in it.

“Outside groups are in the process of pouring more than $3.2 million into Iowa to support Hillary Clinton and John Edwards,” wrote Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe, in an e-mail solicitation on Dec. 27.

The e-mail referred to AFSCME as “Hillary Clinton’s friends from Washington” and didn’t include the word “labor” or “union.”

“Instead of benefiting from $3.2 million in money from big interests over the next week, we’re asking 32,000 new supporters to give whatever they can afford,” he wrote.

He was more direct in a memo to reporters, naming the unions, lobby groups and wealthy individuals involved.

“There is no doubt that the size of the spending and its underhanded nature deserve further scrutiny,” Plouffe wrote.

The campaign also released a letter from an AFSCME member in Iowa who wrote that she was dropping out of the union in disgust at their attacks on Obama.

Obama’s spokesman, Bill Burton, didn’t respond directly to a question of whether the labor spending is appropriate, referring instead to past statements. And many of Obama’s senior aides have worked for, or benefited from, independent spending in the past.

In 2004, for instance, Plouffe managed the campaign of House Democratic leader Richard Gephardt, while Obama’s communications director, Robert Gibbs, worked for an independent group funded by Gephardt supporters that aired a notorious ad attacking former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean’s national security credentials by using the visage of Osama bin Laden.

Plouffe didn’t make clear in his memo which tactics he was describing as “underhanded.” But Obama’s campaign has been particularly critical of AFSCME’s mailings, which can be misleading: The mailings criticize Obama’s health care plan and include a quotes from Edwards, which could lead readers to blame the attack on Edwards.

The AFSCME tactics have produced some ambivalence within the labor movement, as well.

“The law is the law and people can do what they can do,” said the president of the International Association of Fire Fighters, Harold A. Schaitberger, whose union has supported Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) for president in newspaper ads and billboards.

But he said his spending always makes clear that it’s communicating his members’ endorsement.

“You should be very, very straight up what you’re doing, as opposed to sometimes creating illusions about who you are and what you’re doing on behalf of who,” he said, adding that he is “not critical of any of my colleagues” in labor.

Others have suggested that Obama could pay for his distance from labor if he becomes the nominee, as Democrats traditionally rely heavily on unions for organizational support.

“They really run the risk of depressing the enthusiasm for him as a potential nominee,” said AFSCME political director Larry Scanlon.

Others, however, doubt whether labor can afford not to support any of the Democratic nominees — all of whom have promised to ease union organizing and tighten trade restrictions — against the nominee of a Republican Party who’s often openly hostile to organized labor.

“It’s a choice of allowing a party that is trying to kill it to keep power versus a Democratic Party, which isn’t always the greatest ally, but is an ally and isn’t out to kill it every day,” said Jonathan Tasini, the executive director of a pro-labor research group, the Labor Research Association.

He predicted that “whoever is the nominee of the Democratic Party is going to have 1,000 percent labor backing.”

"Edwards's Closing Ad" (with video)

Chris Cillizza (WaPo's political blog, The Fix):
DES MOINES, Iowa -- Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards will close his Iowa campaign with an ad featuring an emotional appeal from an unemployed Maytag employee named Doug Bishop.

The 60-second commercial will run statewide during the 5:30 news tomorrow and Thursday and dovetails with a full page ad in the Des Moines Register that also features Bishop.

It's not far fetched to see the spot as a direct response to the two-minute "ad" Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's (N.Y.) campaign plans to run the night before the caucuses on every 6 pm newscast in the state.

Laid off in September 2004, Bishop and his family were invited to meet Edwards who at the time was the Democrats' vice presidential nominee. As Bishop tells the story of that gathering, Edwards bent down, looked his seven-year old son in the eye and said: "I'm going to keep fighting for your daddy's job, I promise you that."

"That's the kind of things we need in a leader in this country," Bishop adds. "Not somebody who is going to go to a big fundraiser and say write me a check for $2,300 and I'll let you know you have my support."

The television ad echoes the "people versus the powerful" message that Edwards has pushed over the final week of the campaign. (Seeing Edwards in person over the last few days, we've been struck by the similarities between the rhetoric espoused by then Vice President Al Gore in 2000 and Edwards in this campaign.)

All signs point to an Edwards mini-surge in Iowa although the latest Des Moines Register poll -- released late last night -- put him in third place, behind Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Clinton.

The Edwards campaign -- wary of losing all-important momentum in the final days before the caucus -- released a memo from their own pollster taking issue with the Register survey.

"Is the poll accurate? There are good reasons to think it is NOT," wrote Harrison Hickman in the memo -- citing the fact the poll was in the field over the holidays, the poll's high number of estimated first-time caucus goers (60 percent) and the number of Republicans and Independents (45 percent) that comprise the sample. Hickman also cites the column written by Register political guru David Yepsen on the survey, pointing out that Yepsen writes that "the nightly results show Obama's support flat over the last two nights, Clinton's declining each night, and Edwards' support increasing each night."

In these last few days, molehills become mountains overnight. So, be careful not to read too much into any one poll even one with as good a track record as the Des Moines Register. From everything we hear on the ground, this race is tight and getting tighter between the Big 3.
Howie P.S.: More hope for Edwards here, with "Second Choices Give Edwards Clear Lead in Iowa" via Political Wire.

"Eye To Eye: Obama's Final Push (CBS News)"


CBS, video (03:13):
With only three days before the votes are cast in Iowa, White House hopefuls are out stumping in full force. Dean Reynolds sat down with democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama who's fighting his way to the finish.
Howie P.S.: Dan Balz and Shailagh Murray slice and dice the latest poll and all things Iowan this morning in the WaPo with "Poll Shows Obama With 7-Point Lead In Iowa Contest." CBS has video, (02:03) about Michelle Obama that calls her "The Closer." Pollster.com ranks the pollsters and puts the Des Moines Register on top. John Nichols weighs in with "LAST REGISTER POLL: OBAMA UP IN TIGHT, FLUID RACE" in The Nation. Markos gets on the Taylor Marsh bandwagon, by shitting on Obama for deciding to "shit on Gore." Marc Ambinder gives Obama's major opponents the microphone with "Obama Rivals Say Des Moines Register Poll Can't Be Trusted."


"Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

Markos:

Polling the Iowa caucuses is notoriously difficult, and while none nailed the entrance poll results in 2004, the Des Moines Register's effort came closest by far:

Just hours ago, the Register released its final poll of the contest:

Des Moines Register. 12/27-30. Likely Democratic caucusgoers. (11/25-28 results)

Obama 32 (28)
Clinton 25 (25)
Edwards 24 (23)

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and all that jazz. It's a poll, and one that doesn't seem to pick up the Edwards surge we've seen in other polls. The Edwards campaign is defensive about the results, which I guess is understandable but whatever. It's all spin at this point. This thing is tight enough that the second-choices can push anyone over the top. This poll has Richardson at 6% (much lower than in some other polls, which show him breaking into double digits), Biden at 4%, Dodd at 2%, and another 6% uncommitted. Throw in Kucinich's 1 percent, and we have 19 percent of caucus goers who can tip any of the top three candidates over the top. And that's assuming no deals are cut between candidates.

Despite the cheers of some candidates' supporters, and the wails of others, all this poll tells us is what all the other polls have told us -- any of the top three candidates can win, and anyone that tries to "predict" which one will do so has the same 1 in 3 chance of getting it right as anyone else.

Howie P.S.: Markos downplays the DMR poll's recent accurate track record.

Monday, December 31, 2007

Video: Barack Obama Answers Question - “Why You Instead of John Edwards?”



Think On These Things: video, (03:41):

Happy New Year from howieinseattle (Updated)


UPDATE: New Iowa Poll: Obama widens lead over Clinton---Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has widened his lead in Iowa over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards heading into Thursday's nominating caucuses, according to The Des Moines Register's final Iowa Poll before the 2008 nominating contests.

Obama's rise is the result in part of a dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents. Both groups prefer the Illinois senator in what has been a very competitive campaign.
Howie P.S.: icebergslim's diary on Kos starts the Obama celebration tonight.


I am waiting for the final pre-caucus Iowa Poll results from the Des Moines Register. This poll is reputedly the most accurate predictor of what place each candidate will finish, but not necessarily the margins between them. It will be available online here after 9pm CST, which I believe is 7pm PST. I should still be functional at that hour and will post and distribute.