And the winner is...(video)

BarackObama.com, video, "His Choice" (00:31).

Howie P.S.: My personal favorite ad of the cycle. I like to call it "The Wink."

"Devastating New Ad Hits McCain on Bush Economics" (video)

Ari Melber, with video (01:34):

The only thing more damaging to John McCain than Keating Economics is Bush Economics.

That's the idea behind a devastating new attack ad that the DNC launched Sunday. To kick off the last full week before the election, Democrats are stressing McCain's firm support for Bush's economic policies with a web ad featuring a fleet of senior McCain surrogates. Some took to the TV studios to tout McCain's Bush-like approach to taxes and growth, while others are shown, cornered and empty-handed, when asked to name a single economic issue on which McCain disagrees with the President. "McCain's own surrogates have repeatedly said that John McCain would continue President Bush's economic policies," explains the DNC, so the video just brought all the documentary footage together in one spot.

The ad's ending is priceless, as Gov. Mark Sanford flails and fails to offer a single contrast between McCain and Bush on the economy. Briefly and meekly, he floats NAFTA, but then concedes that example is more about "consistency." You almost feel for him, unless you recall that he only looks bad because he is awkwardly, consciously dissembling without a scrap of evidence. Just like his candidate.

Barack Obama

"Colin Powell Decimates McCain's Rationale" (video)

DailyKosTV, video (06:25):

Video montage of Powell's Obama endorsement and clips supporting his critiques of McCain and Palin.

"On strategy and tactics" (with video)

James Fallows (The Atlantic):

The least self-aware moment for John McCain in last night's debate came at the half-way point, when he said, "I'm afraid Senator Obama doesn't understand the difference between a tactic and a strategy."

In a sense McCain was sticking to his battle plan in saying this -- the plan being on-message hammering-home of the "Obama doesn't understand" theme. In another sense, he lost his way, since he immediately segued not into a discussion of strategic matters in Iraq and Afghanistan but into an anecdote. But that kind of literal parsing of his answer -- tactical analysis, you might call it -- really misses the point.

There has been no greater contrast between the Obama and McCain campaigns than the tactical-vs-strategic difference, with McCain demonstrating the primacy of short-term tactics and Obama sticking to a more coherent long-term strategy. And McCain's dismissive comment suggests that he still does not realize this.

Some examples are so familiar as to need no explanation: McCain choosing the ten-day tactical "bounce" from the surprise choice of Sarah Palin, in exchange for the enormous strategic risk in choosing an un-vetted and now obviously unqualified running mate. Or McCain rolling the dice with his threat to boycott the debate -- and then, once on stage, appearing to be only mildly interested in the financial-bailout deal that 72 hours earlier was the stated reason for overturning all agreements about the debates .

But the personas that the two men chose to present in the debate indicated the difference in a profound way. The truths of debates are these:

* Emotional messages, which are variants on "how do I feel about this person?", are all that matter in presidential debates. Issues discussions are significant mainly to the extent they shape these impressions. For instance: a candidate's view on the economy feeds the impression of whether he sympathizes with "people like me." Or views on foreign policy feed the impression of whether he would be "a leader we can trust."

* Barring a truly disastrous performance, each side's partisans will think their candidate did well, and will be reinforced in the reasons for supporting the person they already like. Thus John McCain supporters will think he sounded confident and masterful; Obama supporters will think he kept presenting the big-picture perspective on national security and the economy. Which means therefore:

* The audience that matters is people who start out undecided or uncertain -- and finally are looking for emotional reassurance about who they can imagine as president for the next four years. In general, such viewers are only now starting to pay serious attention to the campaign -- in contrast to people already committed to helping (or stopping) one of the candidates. That is why the first debate is a unique "re-launch" opportunity for the candidates to present themselves to people who realize it's time to make up their minds.

Everything John McCain did on stage last night was consistent with trying to score tactical points in those 90 minutes. He belittled Obama with the repeated "he doesn't understand"s; he was explicitly insulting to him in saying at the end "I honestly don't believe that Senator Obama has the knowledge or experience" for the job (a line Joe Biden dare not use so bluntly on Sarah Palin); and implicitly he was shockingly rude and dismissive in refusing ever to look Obama in the eye. Points scored -- in the short term, to the cheers of those already on his side.

Obama would have pleased his base better if he had fought back more harshly in those 90 minutes -- cutting McCain off, delivering a similarly harsh closing judgment, using comparably hostile body language, and in general acting more like a combative House of Commons debater. Those would have been effective tactics minute by minute.

But Obama either figured out, or instinctively understood, that the real battle was to make himself seem comfortable, reasonable, responsible, well-versed, and in all ways "safe" and non-outsiderish to the audience just making up its mind about him. (And yes, of course, his being a young black man challenging an older white man complicated everything he did and said, which is why his most wittily aggressive debate performance was against another black man, Alan Keyes, in his 2004 Senate race.) The evidence of the polls suggests that he achieved exactly this strategic goal. He was the more "likeable," the more knowledgeable, the more temperate, etc. (Update: though from here on out he doesn't have to say "John is right..." anywhere near as often as he did last night.) .

For years and years, Democrats have wondered how their candidates could "win" the debates on logical points -- that is, tactics -- but lose the larger struggle because these seemed too aggressive, supercilious, cold-blooded, or whatever. To put it in tactical/strategic terms, Democrats have gotten used to winning battles and losing wars. Last night, the Democratic candidate showed a far keener grasp of this distinction than did the Republican who accused him of not understanding it.

Howie P.S.: Goldy also directs the reader to John Coles' "The Narrative Starts to Settle In" with a video mashup by Jed Lewison--"Angry John McCain" (video 01:22)." Here's a taste from the Coles post:

That is just a sample of what is going to come. Look for the appearance of the following words in days to come: cranky, grumpy, crotchety, angry, mean, rude, sneering, snarling, contemptuous, off-putting, snide, boorish, and worst of all, not Presidential. SNL will probably drive the point home in a skit that will become the dominant narrative tonight, and McCain will become boxed in regarding his behavior in the second debate, much as Gore was unable to be as aggressive as he wanted in the second debate (I remember the running joke was that Gore had been medicated for the second debate).

Barack Obama

"Joint McCain-Obama Statement"

Mark Halperin (The Page, TIME):

“The American people are facing a moment of economic crisis. No matter how this began, we all have a responsibility to work through it and restore confidence in our economy. The jobs, savings, and prosperity of the American people are at stake.

“Now is a time to come together – Democrats and Republicans – in a spirit of cooperation for the sake of the American people. The plan that has been submitted to Congress by the Bush Administration is flawed, but the effort to protect the American economy must not fail.

This is a time to rise above politics for the good of the country. We cannot risk an economic catastrophe. Now is our chance to come together to prove that Washington is once again capable of leading this country.”

Speaking for himself, Senator Obama outlined the following principles that he calls on Senator McCain to support:

I believe that several core principles should guide this legislation.

First, there must be oversight. We should not hand over a blank check to the discretion of one man. We support an independent, bipartisan board to ensure accountability and complete transparency.

Second, we need to protect taxpayers. There should be a path for taxpayers to recover their money, and to turn a profit if Wall Street prospers.

Third, no Wall Street executive should profit from taxpayer dollars. This plan cannot be a welfare program for CEOs whose greed and irresponsibility has contributed to this crisis.

Fourth, we must help families who are struggling to stay in their homes. We cannot bail out Wall Street without helping millions of families facing foreclosure on Main Street.

Fifth, we both agree that this financial rescue package should move on its own without any earmarks or other measures. We have different views about the need for other action, but this must be a clean bill.

This is a time to rise above politics for the good of the country. We cannot risk an economic catastrophe. This is not a Democratic problem or a Republican problem – this is an American problem. Now, we must find an American solution.

Barack Obama

"Sunday Pundits: McCain Un-Presidential" (with video)

Ari Melber with video from jedreport (04:17):

The Sunday political talk shows deliver debate, if nothing else. They are produced, booked, written and hard-wired for a relentless back and forth. Thus this exchange from ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” was remarkable in its unanimity — journalists, conservative pundits and lone Democrat Donna Brazile all agreeing that Sen. John McCain is a political and policy disaster on the economy.

The assessments were biting, too. Conservative stalwart George Will said McCain substituted “vehemence for coherence” in calling for the firing of SEC Chairman Chris Cox, a move Will labeled “un-presidential.”

Sam Donaldson said McCain sounded so off-message that “age” was back on the table.

A four-minute clip of the show is currently one of the most popular political videos on YouTube. The Obama campaign is sending reporters shorter Youtube soundbite clips of each rebuke. “In case you missed it, here are some of the highlights,” promises the Obama communique.

As the saying goes, with pundits like these…

Howie P.S.: It finally dawned on me the other day that two of my favorite political people, Ari and Jed, have deep Seattle connections. Something in the water?
Barack Obama

WATCH: "SNL John McCain Skit Cowritten By Al Franken" (video)

Video and some details about Franken's return.

"Record Contradicts Palin's 'Bridge' Claims"

Wall Street Journal:

The Bridge to Nowhere argument isn't going much of anywhere.

Despite significant evidence to the contrary, the McCain campaign continues to assert that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin told the federal government "thanks but no thanks" to the now-famous bridge to an island in her home state.

The McCain campaign released a television advertisement Monday morning titled "Original Mavericks." The narrator of the 30-second spot boasts about the pair: "He fights pork-barrel spending. She stopped the Bridge to Nowhere."

Gov. Palin, who John McCain named as his running mate less than two weeks ago, quickly adopted a stump line bragging about her opposition to the pork-barrel project Sen. McCain routinely decries.

Getty Images

Republican presidential candidate John McCain (right) and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, at a campaign rally in Lee's Summit, Mo.

But Gov. Palin's claim comes with a serious caveat. She endorsed the multimillion dollar project during her gubernatorial race in 2006. And while she did take part in stopping the project after it became a national scandal, she did not return the federal money. She just allocated it elsewhere.

"We need to come to the defense of Southeast Alaska when proposals are on the table like the bridge," Gov. Palin said in August 2006, according to the local newspaper, "and not allow the spinmeisters to turn this project or any other into something that's so negative." The bridge would have linked Ketchikan to the airport on Gravina Island. Travelers from Ketchikan (pop. 7,500) now rely on ferries.

A year ago, the governor issued a press release that the money for the project was being "redirected."

"Ketchikan desires a better way to reach the airport, but the $398 million bridge is not the answer," she said. "Despite the work of our congressional delegation, we are about $329 million short of full funding for the bridge project, and it's clear that Congress has little interest in spending any more money on a bridge between Ketchikan and Gravina Island. Much of the public's attitude toward Alaska bridges is based on inaccurate portrayals of the projects here. But we need to focus on what we can do, rather than fight over what has happened."

On Monday in Missouri, Gov. Palin put it this way: "I told Congress thanks but no thanks for that bridge to nowhere. If the state wanted to build a bridge we would built it ourselves."

Senior adviser Mark Salter pointed to her role in killing the project while in office and allocating the money elsewhere. When pressed further that it was actually Congress that stopped the earmark, Mr. Salter said: "She stopped it, too. She did her part." Mr. Salter added that he welcomed a fight over earmarks with the Obama campaign.

Democratic candidate Barack Obama used a town-hall style event in Flint, Mich., to attack Gov. Palin over the "Bridge to Nowhere" debate. He accused the vice presidential nominee of lobbying for the bridge and then hiding her initial position when she ran for governor and the project became unpopular.

"You can't just make stuff up. You can't just recreate yourself. The American people aren't stupid," he said. It's like "being for it before you were against it," Sen. Obama said, a reference to a damaging statement John Kerry made in 2004.

Why is this one issue such a big deal? Sen. McCain's anti-earmarks stance has been paramount to his campaign. The Arizona senator has blamed everything from the Minneapolis bridge collapse to Hurricane Katrina on Congress's willingness to stuff bills full of pork barrel spending.

As such, Gov. Palin's image as a "reformer" is part of the storyline the McCain campaign needs to complement the top of its ticket. Her quip about passing on the bridge and "building it ourselves" has been a staple of her stump.

But she's drawn considerable fire as result. Sen. Obama's campaign released an advertisement pointing out her original support of the bridge. And on Monday, an Obama staffer emailed a photo of Gov. Palin holding up a T-shirt that was made shortly after the bridge caught national attention. It reads "NOWHERE ALASKA" and "99901," the zip code of Ketchikan.

The McCain campaign jumped back with spokesman Brian Rogers calling the attacks "hysterical."

"The only people 'lying' about spending are the Obama campaign. The only explanation for their hysterical attacks is that they're afraid that when John McCain and Sarah Palin are in the White House, Barack Obama's nearly $1 billion in earmark spending will stop dead in its tracks," Mr. Rogers said.

At a rally today, Sen. McCain again asserted that Sen. Obama has requested nearly a billion in earmarks. In fact, the Illinois senator requested $311 million last year, according to the Associated Press, and none this year. In comparison, Gov. Palin has requested $750 million in her two years as governor -- which the AP says is the largest per-capita request in the nation.

Barack Obama

Palin Speech: Mid-Morning Excerpts Roundup

"McCain had criticized earmarks from Palin" (LA Times):

WASILLA, ALASKA -- For much of his long career in Washington, John McCain has been throwing darts at the special spending system known as earmarking, through which powerful members of Congress can deliver federal cash for pet projects back home with little or no public scrutiny. He's even gone so far as to publish "pork lists" detailing these financial favors.

Three times in recent years, McCain's catalogs of "objectionable" spending have included earmarks for this small Alaska town, requested by its mayor at the time -- Sarah Palin.

"The Palin Speech" (Al Giordano):

The McCain team made one big mistake tonight: they put Palin on the attack at the same time that she was introducing herself to the nation. Stupid, stupid, stupid. That solidified the base. But the GOP base won't be enough in 2008.

"Attacks, praise stretch truth at GOP convention" (AP):

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and her Republican supporters held back little Wednesday as they issued dismissive attacks on Barack Obama and flattering praise on her credentials to be vice president. In some cases, the reproach and the praise stretched the truth.

"Palin’s True North" (Timothy Egan-NY Times):

But what many of us find, um, memorable, the rest of America may see as alarming, or at least strange. The CBS news survey on Tuesday, taking into account the Palin nomination, showed Obama with a 14-point lead among women. And a fresh Gallup poll suggests that the Palin pick has not helped McCain with Democratic or independent women, to date. It’s hurt.

Shooting wolves out of airplanes is something Palin backs with zest. But most Americans have never seen a wolf, let alone considered shooting one from a Piper Cub.

Palin may be the only nominee on a national ticket since Teddy Roosevelt who knows how to field dress a moose, as Fred Thompson said on Tuesday. But most Americans have never killed a moose, let alone gutted one.

"Why the media should apologize" (Roger Simon-Politico):

On behalf of the media, I would like to say we are sorry.

On behalf of the elite media, I would like to say we are very sorry.

We have asked questions this week that we should never have asked.

We have asked pathetic questions like: Who is Sarah Palin? What is her record? Where does she stand on the issues? And is she is qualified to be a heartbeat away from the presidency?

We have asked mean questions like: How well did John McCain know her before he selected her? How well did his campaign vet her? And was she his first choice?

Bad questions. Bad media. Bad.

"The Morning After Palin" (Political Wire):

The Detroit Free Press put together a panel of voters to listen to last night's Republican convention speeches and, much as I predicted last night, the independents were universally negative on Palin. In fact, they were more negative than the Democratic voters. The speech was clearly designed to help close the "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the McCain campaign all summer.

Howie P.S.: The Political Wire post also links to comments by Howard Wolfson, Ezra Klein, James Fallows, Jonathan Martin and Bill Kristol.

Barack Obama

WORD: "Diddy to McCain: "You Are Buggin" with Palin" (with video)

Ari Melber (The Nation), with video (04:07):

Forget Paris Hilton, rapper and music mogul Sean "Diddy" Combs is now taking on John McCain.
Combs posted an extended YouTube blog this weekend, part of his "Diddy Obama blog" series, blasting McCain for making a reckless running mate selection. "No disrespect, I love you, I want you to live to be 110," he says into a rotating camera. "If you really think we are going to let you win this election with these decisions that you're making, you're buggin!" he adds.

The video, which is laced with f-bombs, calls on youth voters to "protect our future" and stop McCain. After just two days, Combs' address is already one of the top viewed and most favorited videos in YouTube's News and Politics section, with over 50,000 views. It still trailed Obama's convention speech and a handful of other Palin clips.

Again, the video contains swearing:

Howie P.S.: For a companion message pitched to the Lexus/Flomax demographic, check out "Obama versus John F. Kennedy" in The New Yorker. And the Diddy video now has over 135,000 views and is #3 on "Today's Top Ten Viral Videos."

"No-Pin" McCain On The Campaign Trail

Early in April, I noticed that McCain was not wearing a pin as I looked at photos taken from 4/4/08 to 4/8/08. Then I went back to a photo taken at the MTV debate (top photo) and, nope, "no pin."

QUOTE OF THE DAY

David Sirota:

It is polite pinstriped prejudice shrouding bigotry in feigned outrage against extremism—the operative word being feigned. After all, John McCain solicited the endorsement of John Hagee, the pastor who called the Catholic Church “the Great Whore.” Similarly, according to Mother Jones magazine, Hillary Clinton belongs to the “Fellowship,” a secretive group “dedicated to ‘spiritual war’ on behalf of Christ.” She is also friendly with Billy Graham, the minister caught on tape spewing anti-Semitism. But while Wright’s supposed “extremism” blankets the news, McCain and Clinton’s relationships with real extremists receive scant attention.

Barack Obama

"Bush-McCain Economy" (video)

amar17011, with video from MSNBC (04:20):

Conservatives and liberals agree that John McCain is complicit in this failed economy -- MSNBC debate with Pat Buchanan and Ari Melber.

Howie P.S.: Seattle-born kid Melber adds to his growing media presence. Now I'll have to buy him two beers the next time he shows up @ Drinking Liberally in Seattle. And since we're on the subject of Bush-McCain, here's a video (01:48) by AFSCVideos on the cost of the war in Iraq, "One Day = $720 Million."

"2 Hopefuls Share Little but Appeal to Youth"

NY Times:

MANCHESTER, N.H. — It has the feel and look of a transformative moment, this tidal wave of young voters buoying the disparate campaigns of Senators Barack Obama and John McCain.

The shouts and wild applause, and willingness to knock on doors and work on telephone banks late in the evening transformed the Iowa caucuses.

Even those working for politicians unlikely to draw power from this surge say the youth vote could do the same on Tuesday in New Hampshire. At Dartmouth, which is back in session, professors predicted a 60 percent turnout on the campus in Hanover, a percentage that would far exceed previous primaries.

In Iowa, young voters came out in strength, as did their elders. Fifty-seven percent of voters ages 17 to 24 said Mr. Obama was their first choice, compared with 14 percent for John Edwards and 10 percent for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Far fewer young people voted in the Republican caucuses, and former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas scored highest, drawing well with evangelical youth.

Mr. McCain’s persona as a war hero who rarely minds his lip scores well on campuses in New Hampshire.

Even those transfixed by this wave caution against proclaiming the primaries as a coming of age for a new generation of young activists and voters.

Political pied pipers often prove ephemeral. Mr. Obama’s support among a focus group at Dartmouth sagged noticeably after students watched him debate more veteran Democrats.

Over the long run, young voters rarely vote in percentages as high as older voters. And many laboring here hail from out of state and cannot vote here.

“The mass mobilization and excitement this year is tremendous,” said Joseph Bafumi, a professor of government at Dartmouth. “It gives a campaign a feeling of vitality and energy. But young people are famously transient and not yet settled.”

Gaby Gottlob, 19, a student at the University of Vermont, said not all students were so engaged.

“I know a lot of people that are like: ‘Oh, the primary? I haven’t registered yet,’” Ms. Gottlob said.

Every candidate turns to the tools of the youth culture, a Facebook, YouTube and blogging whirl. But some go much further. Mr. Obama has spoken on college campuses for months, acquiring a vast database of potential volunteers.

Former President Bill Clinton has done the same as his wife’s surrogate. Mr. McCain rarely has a rally or forum in which he fails to hand a microphone to a young person.

No candidate is more aware of the tonic appeal of the youth vote, and more intent on capturing its power than Mr. Obama is. His campaign has the trappings of a youth crusade, an impression he emphasizes by having aides place young people behind him on stage.

Few candidates of recent vintage approached Mr. Obama’s capture of more than half the youth vote in Iowa. In 2004, Howard Dean summoned “net rooters” and “alt rockers.” But in the end, Senator John Kerry received 37 percent of the 18-to-24 vote to Mr. Dean’s 23 percent, according to a poll by Edison/Mitofsky.

Mr. Obama challenges young people daily, urging them to prove pundits wrong by turning out in vast numbers. Booming applause greets his words.

“It would be such a shame after seeing the great turnout in Iowa if we weren’t working as hard as we could to make sure that story continues, because I think that was the biggest story out of Iowa,” Mr. Obama told an audience on Monday. “That transcends any individual candidate.”

The precise alchemy of this attraction is uncertain, as often is true in politics. It owes perhaps to Mr. Obama’s youthful look and multicultural persona, his soaring words and a message tinged with liberal politics and talk of uniting partisans.

“It’s not something he’s doing.” Professor Bafumi said. “It’s something he’s being.”

James Nance, 19, a student at George Mason, traveled across New Hampshire as a political tourist watching candidates. Only Mr. Obama spoke directly to his concerns.

“Kids are the best at telling who’s a liar, who’s phony,” Mr. Nance said. “He really inspires me to stand up and fight. There’s something different about him, you know.”

Mr. Obama’s rivals have not conceded the youth vote. Chelsea Clinton has accompanied her mother, Mrs. Clinton, everywhere on the campaign trail of late. She worked on telephone banks for 30 minutes on Monday.

The campaign made sure to let cameras follow her as she strolled the streets of Portsmouth, even convincing a wavering young woman at a diner to vote for her mother.

Mrs. Clinton’s rallies attract young people, although in nothing like the numbers and passion for Mr. Obama. She has tried to defuse that strength by hitting at his weakness. Her campaign placed a billboard in Hanover, with one word, “Ready.”

Mr. Edwards draws relatively few young people to his events, notwithstanding his youthful looks and energetic style. His theme of a middle class betrayed by a corporate elite appears not to resonate with younger voters. Tom Murray, 20, a political science major from Long Island, hears in Mr. Edwards’s message a poetic tale. But Mr. Murray sees few young people at rallies.

“It’s mostly older people,” he said. “I’m not sure why.”

In the Republican ranks, Mr. McCain, 71, is a curious bookend to Mr. Obama. He is the oldest candidate in either party besides Ron Paul, another Republican, who is 72. Yet he draws hundreds of young people at some events.

Mr. McCain drew many hundreds when he spoke at Dartmouth, a number exceeded only by the 2,000 students who showed up for Mr. Obama.

“He is seen as Washington but not in it,” said Ronald G. Shaiko, an associate director of the Nelson A. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth who works with focus groups. “They think he’ll upset the apple cart.”

Mr. McCain admits to admiring Mr. Obama’s appeal as a “wonderful thing” and has taken to borrowing a line or three. He has been channeling Mr. Obama, calling on Americans to “serve a cause greater than their self-interest,” a theme from his campaign in 2000.

At forums, he may hand the microphone to a young man with ONE, a group dedicated to eradicating what it calls “stupid poverty” and disease. The group has more than 17,000 members in New Hampshire.

At Dartmouth, Emily Goodell, 18, sat astride a strange fence, contemplating a vote for Mr. McCain or Mr. Obama.

“It is kind of a strange thing since they have different views on many of the issues,” Ms. Goodell said. “They come across as genuine. I trust them.”

Nearly as striking is the absence of young people on the trail traveled by Mitt Romney and Rudolph W. Giuliani. Mr. Romney visited Dartmouth, but the earth did not shake.

“He went straight to the medical school,” Professor Shaiko said. “He wanted to talk to adults. He has no presence here.”

Still, the youth vote has an uncertain mojo. For the moment, Mr. Obama is like catnip for many people younger than 30. Less certain is if his “it moment” will be sustained.

The results of the Rockefeller Center focus group before the Democratic debate in September at Dartmouth may be instructive. Mr. Obama’s stock dropped after he stood shoulder to shoulder with more experienced rivals.

“His talking about his work in the state legislature while another candidate is talking about negotiating with the North Koreans was a turnoff,” Professor Shaiko said. “They found him coming up short on experience.”

Howie P.S.: Nice to hear young people worrying about experience, as the author of this piece takes two opportunities to mention. The Baltimore Sun article, "Young voters a grand prize for candidates," takes another look.

Barack Obama