"How Loss Of Enthusiasm Among Youth Voters Could Cost Obama The Presidency" (with video)

Peter S. Goodman:

“He was intelligent, clever, and totally composed," Terrell says. "I know I'm only 22, but I still remember well when our president wasn't any of those things. I left thinking, ‘Man, it’s just so cool that this guy’s the president.' He’s all the things I would want in a president. He hasn’t done all the things I would like him to do, but he still is that person." MORE...

"Stung by Recession, Many Young Voters Looking Past Obama"

"Chad Tevlin, 19, on the back porch of his father's house in Elkhart, Ind. A student trying to pay for college by cleaning portable toilets, he cannot recall if he registered to vote at all."

Susan Saulny (New York Times):

Polls show that Americans under 30 are still inclined to support Mr. Obama by a wide margin. But the president may face a particular challenge among those voters ages 18 to 24. In that age group, his lead over Mr. Romney — 12 points — is about half what it is among 25- to 29-year-olds, according to an online survey this spring by the Harvard Institute of Politics. And among whites in the younger group, Mr. Obama’s lead vanishes altogether. MORE...

"Jessica Alba: One Million Strong for Jobs" (video)

WatchOurTime, video (01:31):

Jessica Alba wants you to join her, OURTIME.org, and ServeNext.org to call for one million new national service jobs in nursing, teaching, disaster relief, and more.

"Why Democrats Have a Problem with Young Voters"

Rick Perlstein:

I have a young friend I'll call Cecil. Cecil graduated from a prestigious liberal arts college on the East Coast in 2006 with a degree in political science. A lot of his friends were involved in political campaigns, and so, looking for work, he thought he'd try it, too: "You want to be involved in something that's trying to make the world a better place. Something that's mission-driven," he says. So he got a job as a field organizer for the senate campaign of John Tester, the populist Democrat. That election won, burned out, he drove to California and got a job waiting tables.

Then came Barack Obama, and Cecil fell in love...MORE...

Howie P.S.; One way to think of this is to observe that the Democratic "brand" has been diluted and blurred, in spite of Obama's best efforts.

"Youth movement in a culture of hopelessness"

Jesse Strauss (ALJAZEERA ENGLISH):

Henry Giroux says Wall Street protests need to stay centred on the most marginalised population of the US: young people---A protest encampment near the heart of the United States' financial capital in New York City started out with a few dozen students and unemployed university graduates.

Within weeks it inspired thousands of New Yorkers to join, and spawned scores of similar protests around the country.

Al Jazeera spoke with Henry Giroux about how young people have been culturally alienated by the political and economic systems of the country widely regarded as the example of democracy, and why the "Occupy" movement needs to stay focused on youth. MORE...

"Goldy's Guide to Being Political Without Being an Asshole"

David Goldstein:

So you wanna make a difference, huh? You're young, you're strong, you're entering your intellectual prime, and you're just itching to stand up to the arrogant gray-hairs of your parents' generation—who, admittedly, royally screwed things up—and set our nation right again. You want to end injustice, end poverty, end pollution, end the wars, and push the powers that be toward smarter, fairer, and more sustainable policies. In other words, like generations of politically conscious students before you, you want to change the world.

Well, here's a novel idea: You could fucking vote! MORE...

Howie P.S.: Here's the money quote:

According to data compiled by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University (yes, they stupidly felt the need to spell out the acronym CIRCLE), only 21.3 percent of eligible voters age 18 to 24 bothered to vote in the 2010 midterm election... you know, the election that filled Congress with racist, fascist, science-denying teabagging lunatics.

"Bill Clinton's Message to Young Voters in Washington" (video)

pattymurrayforsenate, video (04:06):

President Bill Clinton talks about why students and young voters should support Patty Murray.

"Obama Aims To Rekindle Youth Starpower For Midterms"

Christina Bellantoni (TPMDC):

Obama will hold the first of four "Moving America Forward" rallies on the books today in Madison, Wisconsin. He'll share the stage with Ben Harper and The National.

A Democratic official said the party is spending $50 million to try to re-engage voters under 30, who made up for nearly a third of the new voters who helped elect Obama in 2008.

There were 15 million of these new young voters out there two years ago. The administration is fanning out across the country to try and reach them. Vice President Joe Biden will speak at Penn State, DNC Chairman Tim Kaine will rally with Senate candidate Chris Coons (D) at the University of Delaware. HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius will speak at the University of Maryland. Labor Secretary Hilda Solis will headline a rally at California State-Los Angeles. United States Trade Representative Ron Kirk will rally with students at North Carolina Central University.

The DNC is hosting more than 200 watch parties at college campuses across the country, and on Monday was sending text messages to supporters to let them know about the upcoming rallies and the location of the nearest watch party.

Thursday night Obama will appear at the kickoff of a 3-day political youth summit in Washington. He'll appear with hiphop star B.o.B. at Constitution Hall. MORE...

"Under-30 Americans: The next new dealers"

E.J. Dionne:

Young Americans are the linchpin of a new progressive era in American politics. So why aren't Democrats paying more attention to them?

The relative strength of conservatives in American politics since the 1980s was built on generational change: Voters whose views had been shaped by the New Deal were gradually replaced with the more cautious souls who came of age after FDR. Enter the Millennials -- generally defined as Americans born in 1981 or after. They are, without question, the most liberal generation since those New Dealers, and they could transform our politics for decades.

Yet this will happen only if progressive politicians start noticing their very best friends in the electorate. Progressives who doubt this should spend time with the exhaustive portrait of the Millennials that Pew Research Center released Wednesday. The study underscored the generation's "distinctiveness," and a big part of that distinctiveness is how progressive younger Americans are compared with the rest of the country.

For one thing, they are not allergic to the word "liberal." Americans under 30 include the largest proportion of self-described liberals and the smallest proportion of self-described conservatives of any age group: 29 percent of the under-30s called themselves liberal, compared with 28 percent who called themselves conservative.

"In every other age group," Pew notes, "far more described their views as conservative than liberal."

Among Gen Xers (born between 1965 and 1980), the conservative advantage over liberals was 38 percent to 20 percent. Among baby boomers (born 1946 to 1964), conservatives led 43 percent to 18 percent. Among those born in 1945 or before -- Pew uses the classic "Silent Generation" tag -- the conservative advantage was 45 to 15 percent. (Moderates and a few respondents who refused a label made up the remainder in all groups.)

The difference in self-labeling reflects differences in attitudes. It's well-known that younger voters are more liberal on social issues, particularly gay rights. But their liberalism also includes sympathy for activist government. Fifty-three percent of Millennials said that "government should do more to solve problems." In every other age group, pluralities preferred the alternative statement offered by the pollsters, that "government is doing too many things better left to business and individuals."

"Millennials," the report concludes, "are significantly less critical of government on a number of dimensions than are other age cohorts."

Scott Keeter, a principal author of the report, said that while individuals often become more conservative as they get older, not all generations start off as liberal as the Millennials have. "Many in Generation X came of age in the Reagan years and started out as conservatives," he said. Baby boomers, he added, are more conservative than they were in the 1970s, but older boomers "retain a distinctively Democratic tilt."

Though not the whole story, demographic factors help account for the Millennials' progressive leanings: Census data cited by Pew show that 61 percent of Millennials are white, compared with 70 percent of Americans age 30 and over. This means that political outreach to the young will require particular attention to Hispanics (19 percent of Millennials) and African Americans (14 percent).

For Democrats looking ahead to this fall's election, the Pew study has some disturbing news.

It's true that Millennials are the most Democratic age group in the electorate -- they voted for Barack Obama by 2 to 1. Their turnout rate relative to older voters was higher in 2008 than in any election since 1972, the first presidential contest in which 18-year-olds could vote.

But Pew notes that since 2008, the Millennials' "enthusiasms" have "cooled" -- "for Obama and his message of change, for the Democratic Party and, quite possibly, for politics itself."

Obama's personal ratings among the Millennials remain very high -- three-fourths have a favorable view of the president -- but his job-approval rating has slipped from 73 percent a year ago to 57 percent this month. In the early months of last year, Democrats had a 29-point Millennial advantage over the Republicans. By the end of the year, their lead had been cut to 14 points.

That still keeps the 18-to-29s the electorate's most Democratic age group. But Democrats face disaster this fall and real problems in 2012 if the Millennials become disaffected from politics and if the Republicans continue to erode the Democrats' generational edge.

And what will Democrats do about it? Politicians have a bad habit in midterm elections: They concentrate on older folks, assuming younger voters will stay home on Election Day. This may be rational most of the time, but it is a foolish bet for Democrats and liberals this year. The young helped them rise to power and can just as easily usher hem to early retirements. Obama cannot afford to break their hearts.

AP: "Dem Youth Support Waning Amid Gov't Gridlock"

AP:

Whither the youth vote? A year after backing Barack Obama by an overwhelming 2-to-1 ratio, young adults are quickly cooling toward Democrats amid dissatisfaction over the lack of change in Washington and an escalating war in Afghanistan.

A study by the Pew Research Center, being released Wednesday, highlights the eroding support from 18-to-29 year olds whose strong turnout in November 2008 was touted by some demographers as the start of a new Democratic movement.

The findings are significant because they offer further proof that the diverse coalition of voters Obama cobbled together in 2008 -- including high numbers of first-timers, minorities and youths -- are not Democratic Party voters who can necessarily be counted on.

While young adults remain decidedly more liberal, the survey found the Democratic advantage among 18-to-29 year olds has substantially narrowed -- from a record 62 percent identifying as Democrat vs. 30 percent for the GOP in 2008, down to 54 percent vs. 40 percent last December. It was the largest percentage point jump in those who identified or leaned Republican among all the voting age groups.

Young adults' voting enthusiasm also crumbled.

During the presidential election, turnout among 18-to-29 year olds was the highest in years, making up roughly 20 percent of the voters in many states including Virginia and New Jersey, due in part to high participation from young blacks and Hispanics.

That percentage, however, dropped by half for the gubernatorial races in those states last November where Republicans celebrated wins as black groups pushed Obama to do more to soften the economic blow from mortgage foreclosures and Latinos saw little progress on immigration reform. Young adults were also the least likely of any age group to identify themselves as regular voters.

''This is a generation of young adults who made a big splash politically in 2008,'' said Paul Taylor, executive vice president of the Pew Research Center and co-author of the report. ''But a year and a half later, they show signs of disillusionment with the president -- and, perhaps, with politics itself.''

Democrats saw evidence of this last November, when Republicans toppled Democrats from power in governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia. Young, minority and new voters who Obama pulled into the fold in 2008 didn't turn out at the same levels for the two Democratic candidates. The same thing happened in the Massachusetts Senate race last month.

The lesson: Neither party has a hold on 18-to-29 year olds. They tend to vote far less than other age groups, yet they have proven to be a powerful constituency if they are persuaded to vote. And that means the race is on by both Republicans and Democrats to make inroads into the next generation of voters.

Analysts say the findings reflect the fast pace at which young voters live their lives, and both parties should take note of their fickleness.

''If you don't respond to their needs, hopes or dreams quickly, they're gone,'' said Matthew Dowd, an independent political analyst who was a strategist in former President George W. Bush's 2004 re-election campaign. ''They'll leave the playing field or switch their allegiance.''

''They haven't become Republicans and they aren't solid Democrats. They're just looking for leaders who are where they are and will deliver,'' Dowd said. ''Both parties have to be cognizant of the volatility of that group.''

According to the Pew survey, large numbers of young adults said they personally liked the president but were dissatisfied with his rate of progress in changing Washington, such as improving the economy and fixing health care. Just 46 percent of 18-to-29 year olds said they believed Obama had changed Washington, compared to 48 percent who said he had not. Only baby boomers were more cynical, with 52 percent saying Obama had not changed the way things work in Washington.

The young adults also were the only age group in which more disapproved than approved of Obama's handling of the war in Afghanistan. Only 34 percent supported his decision in December to send an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to the region, while 50 percent disapproved.

Still, when asked why Obama hadn't done more to bring change, young adults were somewhat forgiving, with about 56 percent blaming the president's opponents and special interests; only 30 percent said Obama was the one at fault for not trying hard enough.

The findings are part of Pew's broad portrait of the so-called millennial generation, the children of baby boomers who came of age in the new millennium. Demographers believe this generation can reshape U.S. culture and politics because of their demographic size and political outlook.

Making up nearly one-fourth of U.S. voters, 18-to-29 year olds are less religious, more racially diverse and liberal on social issues such as gay rights. They are steeped in digital technology and social media, and are strong believers in the view that the government should do more to solve problems.

For example:

--Nearly two-thirds admit to texting while driving, and more than 8 in 10 sleep with their cell phones by their bed.

--Nearly 4 in 10 have at least one tattoo; about half of those people have two to five tattoos. Roughly 1 in 4 have a body piercing in a place other than an earlobe -- six times the share of older adults.

--About 37 percent of young adults are unemployed or out of the workforce, the highest share among this age group in more than three decades. A record share -- 39.6 percent -- was enrolled in college, and one in 8 millennials ages 22 and older say they had ''boomeranged'' back into their parents' home because of the recession. The Pew survey is based on interviews with 2,020 adults by cell phone or landline from Jan. 14 to 27. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for all respondents, higher for subgroups.

Howie P.S.: These words

AP National Political Writer Liz Sidoti contributed to this report.

cause me to question whether there is some spin going on here. I just don't trust "Donuts" anymore, although I find the overall results fascinating, particularly regarding the sleeping in bed with cell phones. Better news for the WH from Business Week: "Stimulus Created or Saved as Many as 2.1 Million Jobs, CBO Says. Another ray of sunshine: "Democrats block filibuster on scaled-back jobs bill."

"Obama Can’t Lose the Young"

Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, offered a straightforward formula: “When Republican voters and older voters get angry, they vote,” she said. “When younger voters get angry, they stay home.”

-Eugene Robinson, from his article on truthdig.com.

"How Obama Could Create a Long-Term Democratic Majority"

Paul Loeb (email):

Commentators are talking, and rightly so, about how young voters are flocking to Barack Obama. Their overwhelming support gave Obama his Iowa margin, kept him just a few points behind in New Hampshire and Nevada, and contributed to his massive South Carolina victory.

Young voters haven't always turned out historically, but they're responding to Obama's message, and together with his equally massive support from African Americans and strong appeal to independents, their passionate enthusiasm could help him expand the Democratic base enough not only to win in November, but to win decisively.

Obama also offers the chance to make this new generation part of an enduring Democratic coalition--because once young voters support a particular party a few times in a row, they're likely to gravitate toward that party for the rest of their lives.

That so many young Obama supporters are turning out to rally, volunteer and vote suggests that he might be one of those watershed candidates who really can bring a new generation into politics and help shape their long-term loyalties, permanently enlarging the Democratic share of the electorate. But because of Hillary Clinton's attacks on Obama, she risks destroying this shift just as it's beginning to emerge.

Look at the historical patterns: Studies from the past fifty years find that party loyalties tend to form early--for Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike. It was true for the FDR generation, for those who came of age during the anti-war activism of the late Vietnam era, and with the young adults who helped cascade Reagan into office and whose compatriots have remained more conservative ever since.

Major historical events like wars and economic depressions can shift this. So can political scandals and personal crises and conversions. Systematic organizing efforts can also shift voters' worldview and context, particularly for those politically detached, which is one reason unions matter so much. Still, some major patterns get set early on, and that's likely to keep being true.

Generations need several elections to cement the pattern. The votes of 18- to 29-year-olds started shifting back in the Clinton years. Young voters gave Clinton an initial 9 point margin and increased it the next round, but their turnout dropped from the highest since 18-year-olds got the vote to the lowest in the same period.. In 2000, Gore led Bush among this group buy 3%, with Ralph Nader bleeding off another 5%. Led by increases in young African American and Latino voters, they were the only generation to favor Kerry, and did so by a ten percent margin.

These shifts accelerated in 2006. Fueled by the Bush administration's myriad disasters, young voters played a critical role, supporting Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by a massive 60% to 38% difference. They did so in every region of the country, from a three to one split in the East to a three point margin in the South. They provided the critical margin for Senators Tester, Webb and McCaskill, and fed the victories of the four other victorious challengers. Had it been up to young Americans alone, the Democrats would have also won Senate campaigns in Tennessee, Arizona, and Nevada; Ned Lamont would have defeated Joe Lieberman in Connecticut, and a slew of additional House seats would have changed hands. The Democrats would have elected Senators from 26 states, with Republicans carrying just four.

The passion of young people for Obama's campaign is fueled by the Iraq war, an uncertain economy, major concerns about the environment and global warming, and the religious right's attacks on sexuality. But more than anything it's also fueled by Obama's eloquent insistence that change is possible and that ordinary citizens can play a key role. It's fueled by the sense that Obama's personal story anticipates the story of an America that moves beyond its divisions and tackles our fundamental problems. This group also seems to resist the idea that a presidency can simply be handed down like a dynastic succession.

Participating in numbers we haven't seen in decades, these new voters fervently want Obama to win. They're reaching out to enlist their peers and volunteering to help reach others. They can be a powerful force to help him prevail.

But if Hillary Clinton is nominated, this momentum will likely crumble. The young women and men who've been flooding the Democratic primaries and caucuses will feel betrayed by a candidate who's just finished doing her best to destroy the person they've invested their hopes in. And as a result, they may simply stay home. It's not just that Hillary is running against Obama. That would be fine. It's that she and Bill and their surrogates have relentlessly assaulted Obama's character, in a scorched-earth style worthy of Karl Rove. I've devoted an entire article to documenting just a fraction of these instances: her lying about his record (and her on) on critical Iraq and Iran votes, and his votes on abortion choice; her unleashing surrogates like civil rights activist turned WalMart pitchman Andy Young to explain how Obama really wasn't black enough or Black Entertainment Television CEO Robert Johnson (a virulently anti-union corporate head who's backed Bush on issues like the estate tax and privatizing Social Security) to refer to Obama's youthful cocaine use, with Clinton standing next to him at a South Carolina rally. When Hillary says Obama has no right to build up "false hopes," and Bill calls Obama's vision of history "a fairy tale," how can Obama's young supporters not feel attacked in their own hope and dreams? Had Clinton run a less-harsh campaign, like that of John Edwards, she might expect to inherit Obama's passionate young voters--and volunteers. But given the virulence of her attacks, I just can't see them suddenly turning on a dime and enthusiastically supporting her.

Young voters are historically the least likely to participate. The failure of the Democrats to stop Bush's Iraq war has already made many cynical. Obama has reversed this cynicism, but if Clinton crushes the dreams of his supporters, a great many will stay home in disgust. Or, if they do end up voting, they certainly won't work to turn out their peers. As a friend said of his community college students, "the most active ones in my class say they won't even vote for her if she's nominated."

The same is true, of course, of African American voters. The Clinton campaign's attempts to cage Obama in a racial box (for instance by Bill Clinton's dismissing his massive South Carolina victory as just an echo of Jesse Jackson 's 1984 and 1988 campaigns) could have an equally disastrous impact on African American turnout if Hillary Clinton is the nominee come November. Clinton also risks the defection of people who fit neither demographic, but are simply so furious at her support for Bush's Iraq and Iran policies and her massive corporate ties, that they simply cannot let themselves vote for her. I get those responses every time I write on the subject. Taken together, if these groups stay home (and Republicans mobilized by Hillary-hatred turn out), it's easy to see how a candidate like John McCain could transform a prime Democratic opportunity into yet another needless defeat.

If the youth vote affected only the upcoming election, the stakes would be massive. But it's worse yet because Clinton's nomination would likely shift the future votes of a generation. If I thought Barack Obama were simply an empty suit, I'd be skeptical too. Like any political leader, he has his weaknesses. I wish he'd deferred less to the senior Senate leadership on issues like Iraq. But then I look at his record engaging and bringing together once-powerless individuals and communities, speaking out against the war, and linking our health care crisis to his mother dying of cancer while her insurance company tried to throw her off their rolls. I value his stress on empowering ordinary citizens to act. I see enough actions of courage and vision to suggest his presidency might just be able to equal the sum of his powerful words. Then I look at Clinton and wonder why she's fighting so fiercely against her fellow Democrats, after doing so little to fight Bush's destructive policies when he was riding high in the polls.

I think this is part of what the young voters sense too and why their hopes have soared with Obama's campaign. If we dash them now, we may be paying for this choice for far longer than the next four years.

Barack Obama

"2 Hopefuls Share Little but Appeal to Youth"

NY Times:

MANCHESTER, N.H. — It has the feel and look of a transformative moment, this tidal wave of young voters buoying the disparate campaigns of Senators Barack Obama and John McCain.

The shouts and wild applause, and willingness to knock on doors and work on telephone banks late in the evening transformed the Iowa caucuses.

Even those working for politicians unlikely to draw power from this surge say the youth vote could do the same on Tuesday in New Hampshire. At Dartmouth, which is back in session, professors predicted a 60 percent turnout on the campus in Hanover, a percentage that would far exceed previous primaries.

In Iowa, young voters came out in strength, as did their elders. Fifty-seven percent of voters ages 17 to 24 said Mr. Obama was their first choice, compared with 14 percent for John Edwards and 10 percent for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Far fewer young people voted in the Republican caucuses, and former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas scored highest, drawing well with evangelical youth.

Mr. McCain’s persona as a war hero who rarely minds his lip scores well on campuses in New Hampshire.

Even those transfixed by this wave caution against proclaiming the primaries as a coming of age for a new generation of young activists and voters.

Political pied pipers often prove ephemeral. Mr. Obama’s support among a focus group at Dartmouth sagged noticeably after students watched him debate more veteran Democrats.

Over the long run, young voters rarely vote in percentages as high as older voters. And many laboring here hail from out of state and cannot vote here.

“The mass mobilization and excitement this year is tremendous,” said Joseph Bafumi, a professor of government at Dartmouth. “It gives a campaign a feeling of vitality and energy. But young people are famously transient and not yet settled.”

Gaby Gottlob, 19, a student at the University of Vermont, said not all students were so engaged.

“I know a lot of people that are like: ‘Oh, the primary? I haven’t registered yet,’” Ms. Gottlob said.

Every candidate turns to the tools of the youth culture, a Facebook, YouTube and blogging whirl. But some go much further. Mr. Obama has spoken on college campuses for months, acquiring a vast database of potential volunteers.

Former President Bill Clinton has done the same as his wife’s surrogate. Mr. McCain rarely has a rally or forum in which he fails to hand a microphone to a young person.

No candidate is more aware of the tonic appeal of the youth vote, and more intent on capturing its power than Mr. Obama is. His campaign has the trappings of a youth crusade, an impression he emphasizes by having aides place young people behind him on stage.

Few candidates of recent vintage approached Mr. Obama’s capture of more than half the youth vote in Iowa. In 2004, Howard Dean summoned “net rooters” and “alt rockers.” But in the end, Senator John Kerry received 37 percent of the 18-to-24 vote to Mr. Dean’s 23 percent, according to a poll by Edison/Mitofsky.

Mr. Obama challenges young people daily, urging them to prove pundits wrong by turning out in vast numbers. Booming applause greets his words.

“It would be such a shame after seeing the great turnout in Iowa if we weren’t working as hard as we could to make sure that story continues, because I think that was the biggest story out of Iowa,” Mr. Obama told an audience on Monday. “That transcends any individual candidate.”

The precise alchemy of this attraction is uncertain, as often is true in politics. It owes perhaps to Mr. Obama’s youthful look and multicultural persona, his soaring words and a message tinged with liberal politics and talk of uniting partisans.

“It’s not something he’s doing.” Professor Bafumi said. “It’s something he’s being.”

James Nance, 19, a student at George Mason, traveled across New Hampshire as a political tourist watching candidates. Only Mr. Obama spoke directly to his concerns.

“Kids are the best at telling who’s a liar, who’s phony,” Mr. Nance said. “He really inspires me to stand up and fight. There’s something different about him, you know.”

Mr. Obama’s rivals have not conceded the youth vote. Chelsea Clinton has accompanied her mother, Mrs. Clinton, everywhere on the campaign trail of late. She worked on telephone banks for 30 minutes on Monday.

The campaign made sure to let cameras follow her as she strolled the streets of Portsmouth, even convincing a wavering young woman at a diner to vote for her mother.

Mrs. Clinton’s rallies attract young people, although in nothing like the numbers and passion for Mr. Obama. She has tried to defuse that strength by hitting at his weakness. Her campaign placed a billboard in Hanover, with one word, “Ready.”

Mr. Edwards draws relatively few young people to his events, notwithstanding his youthful looks and energetic style. His theme of a middle class betrayed by a corporate elite appears not to resonate with younger voters. Tom Murray, 20, a political science major from Long Island, hears in Mr. Edwards’s message a poetic tale. But Mr. Murray sees few young people at rallies.

“It’s mostly older people,” he said. “I’m not sure why.”

In the Republican ranks, Mr. McCain, 71, is a curious bookend to Mr. Obama. He is the oldest candidate in either party besides Ron Paul, another Republican, who is 72. Yet he draws hundreds of young people at some events.

Mr. McCain drew many hundreds when he spoke at Dartmouth, a number exceeded only by the 2,000 students who showed up for Mr. Obama.

“He is seen as Washington but not in it,” said Ronald G. Shaiko, an associate director of the Nelson A. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth who works with focus groups. “They think he’ll upset the apple cart.”

Mr. McCain admits to admiring Mr. Obama’s appeal as a “wonderful thing” and has taken to borrowing a line or three. He has been channeling Mr. Obama, calling on Americans to “serve a cause greater than their self-interest,” a theme from his campaign in 2000.

At forums, he may hand the microphone to a young man with ONE, a group dedicated to eradicating what it calls “stupid poverty” and disease. The group has more than 17,000 members in New Hampshire.

At Dartmouth, Emily Goodell, 18, sat astride a strange fence, contemplating a vote for Mr. McCain or Mr. Obama.

“It is kind of a strange thing since they have different views on many of the issues,” Ms. Goodell said. “They come across as genuine. I trust them.”

Nearly as striking is the absence of young people on the trail traveled by Mitt Romney and Rudolph W. Giuliani. Mr. Romney visited Dartmouth, but the earth did not shake.

“He went straight to the medical school,” Professor Shaiko said. “He wanted to talk to adults. He has no presence here.”

Still, the youth vote has an uncertain mojo. For the moment, Mr. Obama is like catnip for many people younger than 30. Less certain is if his “it moment” will be sustained.

The results of the Rockefeller Center focus group before the Democratic debate in September at Dartmouth may be instructive. Mr. Obama’s stock dropped after he stood shoulder to shoulder with more experienced rivals.

“His talking about his work in the state legislature while another candidate is talking about negotiating with the North Koreans was a turnoff,” Professor Shaiko said. “They found him coming up short on experience.”

Howie P.S.: Nice to hear young people worrying about experience, as the author of this piece takes two opportunities to mention. The Baltimore Sun article, "Young voters a grand prize for candidates," takes another look.

Barack Obama

"Searching for the Secret to Attracting the Youth Vote"

NY Times:

Maybe it started with Howard Dean, or maybe it was Al Gore, or maybe it was as long ago as when Bill Clinton talked about his underwear on MTV, but campaigns are putting a lot of energy into courting the youth vote. Links to the online hangouts of the under-25 set, YouTube, MySpace and Facebook among them, are all over the candidates’ home pages, especially those of the Democratic candidates. Some campaigns have hired youth vote coordinators to mobilize young voters.

But Web links and vote coordinators aside, are voters under the age of 25 going to turn out in record numbers? History suggests it is unlikely.

Eighteen year-olds cast ballots for president for the first time in 1972, following the ratification of the 26th amendment. Nearly 50 percent of 18-24 year olds voted. Since then, turnout among this age group has varied.

“Since 1972, the trend line for young voters has been relatively stable with peaks and valleys,” said Michael McDonald, professor of government and politics at George Mason University “Turnout among young voters or any group with traditionally low participation depends a lot on how interesting the election itself is.”

One of those peaks, one of those interesting elections, came in 2004. Many political operatives are hoping for a repeat in 2008. Voting among all age groups was up significantly in 2004, up four points from 2000, according to Thom File, a voting analyst with the Census Bureau. But among 18-24 year olds, there was close to an 11 point increase, the greatest increase of any age group. In 2000, 36 percent of 18-24 year olds voted. In 2004, 47 percent of 18-24 year olds voted. (The Census Department has measured turnout in various ways over the years, sometimes including citizens and non-citizens alike. The current numbers are based only on citizens.)

A look at the historical data suggests turnout among the young in 2004 was a lot like 1992, when 47 percent of 18-24 year olds voted. Four years later, in 1996 when Bill Clinton was the incumbent president and was running against Bob Dole, 36 percent of 18-24 year olds cast ballots.

Whether the young turn out to vote in large numbers or not, they tend to favor Democrats. Celinda Lake a Democratic pollster working for Senator Joe Biden, said that in recent Senate races this group often votes 22 percentage points more Democratic than Republican. The exit poll conducted by the television networks and the Associated Press during the 2004 presidential election found that 56 percent of voters in this group voted for John Kerry and 43 percent voted for George W. Bush, a 13 point gap in favor of Mr. Kerry, the Democrat. The poll also found that 18-24 year olds account for just nine percent of the total voters.

Young voters themselves say the issues facing voters in 2008 are compelling. Lawanna Verner a 21 year-old detention officer from Hemingway, South Carolina, said: “The plain fact is that it is important for people in my age group to vote because it’s people our age who are overseas right now fighting in the war.” Ms. Verner, a political independent, participated in a New York Times/CBS News poll last month and was re-interviewed after the poll.

“I think this election is more important because a lot of people are upset with the way things are going now and they really want to see a change,” said Brad Luhn, a 19-year old college student from Thurmont, Maryland. Mr. Luhn said he definitely plans to vote in 2008. “I want to feel like I did something to help.” He said he considers himself a political independent.

In addition to the war and the desire to change the direction of the country, young voters say they are worried about getting their working lives started. They are concerned about jobs, the economy and healthcare. Ms. Lake, the Democratic pollster said that in her research, young voters place “economic issues like college affordability ahead of the war.”

Mr. McDonald, the professor of government and politics, thinks issues may drive high turnout in 2008, but he cautions that much can happen between now and November 2008. “The issues and the closeness of the 2008 election should be favorable to an increase in turnout among young people and people in general,” he said. “But that’s now, things could change, it could look like a blowout and then it would be more like 1996.”