"R-71: Effective 12-3-09"

Lurleen (Pam's House Blend):

The Washington Secretary of State's final vote count report for the week continues to validate the conclusion that all of Washington state is moving towards equality. Tonight's numbers of 52.6% to 47.4% are not final, as vote counting is still underway. However, even the Secretary of State seems pretty sure about R-71 since their Friday afternoon blog post was titled "R-71: Effective 12-3-09"! King [County]'s approval rate has been running 68 percent, and a number of the ballots remaining to be counted are from that county. ... If the vote holds, Senate Bill 5688 will go into effect Dec. 3. The election returns will be certified by Secretary of State Sam Reed and Gov. Chris Gregoire, probably on Dec. 1, but under provisions of the Constitution, a bill referred to voters and approved takes effect 30 days after Election Day, or Dec. 3 in this case. After failing to pray in a victory, campaign manager for Protect Marriage Washington Larry Stickney was expected to concede defeat earlier today. Stickney has failed in his effort to undermine families and disadvantage children through the repeal of Washington's Domestic Partnership Expansion Law of 2009. Larry Stickney...told LifeSiteNews.com that they plan to wait it out for the rest of [Friday] afternoon (pacific time) to make fully certain of the result and then "probably at that point concede." No word yet that Stickney has transmitted his concession message to the press. He very well may choose to not communicate with them at all. He locked the media out of the Reject election night party, even the local Everett Herald. "It's a little lonely in the media room at the Holiday Inn in Everett...", reported Janet Tu of The Seattle Times. The Washington State Republican Party endorsed Stickney's anti-family campaign, a move even their major candidate this election, Susan Hutchison distanced herself from and that they themselves never apparently backed with any vigor. No reaction from them yet either. As for Gary Randall, it's same ole' same ole' I believe He will guide us and provide the necessary funding. Please consider a tax deductible donation to Faith and Freedom Foundation. Thank you and God bless you.

Nate Silver on R-71

Nate Silver:

Washington (state) -- Referendum 71 -- "This bill would expand the rights, responsibilities, and obligations accorded state-registered same-sex and senior domestic partners to be equivalent to those of married spouses, except that a domestic partnership is not a marriage. Should this bill be Approved or Rejected?"

The Positions: An Approve (Yes) vote upholds the expanded domestic partnership rights approved by the state legislature. A Reject (No) vote withdraws those rights and benefits, although it does not overturn domestic partnership itself.

The thing to notice is that the language is the functional opposite here of what it was in Maine or California. An affirmative (approve) vote is good news for same-sex couples, and a negative (reject) vote is bad for them. This has caused some confusion; one pollster has stated that as much as 10 percent of the electorate might vote in a way opposite to their true intentions.

The Polls: The only independent polling in the race is from SurveyUSA, which shows the Approve side winning 50-43, an improvement from 45-42 a month ago. GQR also polled the race on behalf of the pro-domestic partnership group Washington Families Standing Together and showed it passing 53-36, although the usual caveats apply as this is a nonindependent poll.

Analysis: Washington is similar to Maine in certain respects, being white and fairly secular, and since I think the pro-gay marriage side is more likely than not to prevail in Maine, you might think I feel the same way about the initiative in Washington state. Indeed I do feel that way, although the initiatives are not directly comparable. On the one hand, Referendum 71 does not go as far as Maine's Question 1 or California's Proposition 8 since it seeks to reaffirm an "everything but marriage" bill that does not formally bestow the title of marriage upon same-sex couples. On the other hand, a rejection of the referendum would not overturn Washington's 2007 domestic partnership law, but instead only the expanded, marriage-like benefits that were afforded to those couples this year.

Were Washington to vote on a measure to ban domestic partnership outright, it would almost certainly fail and fail badly: by a 58-42 margin, according to my statistical model. A measure to ban gay marriage but not domestic partnership would be much closer; I have such a measure failing 52.5-47.5, but there is a good deal of uncertainty there, and in an off-year election the numbers might be closer to 50:50. Referendum 71 appears to be polling somewhere in between those two goalposts, which makes sense, since it takes Washington somewhere in between domestic partnership and full-blown marriage.

There is also arguably less uncertainty about the outcome in Washington than in Maine. This is because, as in California, most Washingtonians vote by mail, and SurveyUSA has the Approve side leading 53-42 among those who have already voted. A small bit of good fortune for the Approve side is that there is a highly competitive mayoral race in Seattle, which might encourage turnout in that obviously very liberal corner of the state.

The Odds: Although there is a lot of uncertainty in both the polling and the statistical model because of the ambiguity of the measure under consideration, they do tend to point toward the same result: Referendum 71 passing by a margin on the order of 7-10 points. Coupled with what appears to be movement toward the pro-domestic partnership side -- which may reflect voters familiarizing themselves with the language of the ballot -- and what also appears to be an advantage for the Approve side in votes collected thus far, Referendum 71 appears to be fairly safe. I would give about 10-1 odds against its being rejected.

WA: I-1033, R-71 Roundup (with video)

"Seven Reasons to Vote Approve on R-71: Reason #6" (ACLU.org) with video (01:40).

"I-1033 puts unreasonble constraints on state and local governments" (Walla Walla Union-Bulletin).

"Tim Eyman's Initiative 1033 would strangle Washington State's libraries" (NPI Advocate).

"I-1033 a costly contest" (Everett Herald).

"Poll: Greater Support For Wash. Gay Partner Law" (On Top Magazine).

"County labor and business leaders against initiative" (Bellingham Herald).

"If kids could vote, Tim Eyman's I-1033 would be discarded into the rubbish bin" (NPI Advocate).

Approve R-71, Vote NO on I-1033 (poster)

"UW Poll: Constantine leads Hutchison, Mallahan tops McGinn" (Updated)

UPDATE: Darryl is a progressive blogger and professor of anthropology @ UDub and provides "Poll Analysis: Washington State I-1033 & R-71, King County Executive and Seattle Mayor." If you hate statistics, don't go there.

Joel Connelly:

Businessman Joe Mallahan has moved out to an eight-point lead over lawyer Mike McGinn in the race for Seattle mayor, according to the new Washington Poll, while Dow Constantine is ahead of Susan Hutchison in the contest for King County executive.

Mallahan is "stretching a lead out even though the figures leave a whopping 19 percent undecided," said University of Washington political scientist Matt Barreto, who oversaw the poll. Mallahan leads 44 percent to 36 percent.

The survey yielded one fascinating development. Mallahan and McGinn were tied during the portion of the poll taken during Oct. 14-20. After McGinn's aparent flip-flop on the deep-bored tunnel replacement for the Alaskan Way Viaduct, subsequent polling showed Mallahan ahead 45 percent to 29 percent.

The Washington Poll's figures in the county exec's race run counter to findings by two SurveyUSA polls for KING5 news.

The Washington Poll has Constantine at 47 percent, Hutchison with 34 percent with a big 19 percent undecided.

"I think that's going to hold, in large part due to high turnout in the city," Barreto said.

We all knew Seattle was a Democratic city, but the Washington Poll shows just how Democratic. The executive race is officially nonpartisan, but Democrat Constantine has a 70 to 21 percent lead in Jet City. Hutchison is ahead 40-28 in the rest of King County, with a big 32 percent undecided. "They have not circled the wagons for her, at least not yet," Barreto said.

The Washington Poll, which interviewed a total of 724 voters, brings very good news for supporters of same-sex domestic partnerships.

Referendum 71, where an "approved" vote upholds the state's new expanded gay rights law, garners 57 percent 'yes' to 38 percent 'no' with 5 percent undecided. Among voters who say they've already mailed in ballots, R-71 was carrying by a 55-45 margin.

R-71 is ahead by 60-35 in the Puget Sound area and 55-40 elsewhere in Western Washington. But the vote count in Eastern Washington, the most conservative part of the state, breaks nearly even with 46 percent 'yes' and 49 percent 'no.'

The Washington Poll has accurately tracked professional-initiative sponsor Tim Eyman's past victories and defeats.

The latest figures indicate Eyman may be going down to defeat for the first time in an off-year election. Among all registered voters, Eyman's Initiative 1033 is favored by 41 percent and opposed by 46 percent. The measure would restrict spending growth by state, county and local government. Among likely voters, the figures on I-1033 are 40 percent 'yes' and 49 percent 'no,' with about 10 percent undecided.

"The undecideds are starting to trend 'no,'" Barretta said.

The poll was taken Oct. 14-26. It involved actual interviews with voters, unlike the so-called robocalls used in other polls.

The Washington Poll surveyed all regions of the state, but took into account the anticipated higher turnout in King County. It has a margin of error of 3.6 percent and has a pretty good track record in recent elections.

Howie P.S.: Andrew (NPI Advocate) has more instant analysis, from an East King County perspective.

Colbert on R-71 (video)

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Comedy Central, video (05:48):

The petition signers who want to overturn the "everything but marriage" bill should be able to stay in the closet that the gay people have abandoned.

H/t to Dan Kirkdorffer.

I-1033 and R-73 campaign videos (video)

League of Women Voters Washington (I-1033): video (02:11).

"Sacred Ground (R-71)" (Protect Marriage Washington), video (00:32).

Howie P.S.: I do not have permission from Protect Marriage Washington to embed their video.

"Joe Mallahan / Approve Ref 71" (video)

jbennett, video (01:29):

Joe Mallahan urges Seattle voters to Approve Ref 71 this November to protect all Washington families.

Howie P.S.: Mallahan sent the video along with this email message:

Yesterday, the Approve Referendum 71 campaign released polling information that shows a tough fight ahead to protect all Washington families under current domestic partnership laws. In Washington state, there are 12,000 people registered in domestic partnerships. Approving Referendum 71 will protect family/medical leave for sick loved ones, will protect health insurance coverage for a family and will provide protections for children if a parent dies. If we do not approve Ref. 71, these protections will be taken away.

Seattle's LGBT community has honored me with their highest ranking (5 straight A's) in the mayoral campaign and their support helped me win the primary. Now, I am here to urge Seattle voters to approve Referendum 71. Taking away family protections are not my values and I know they aren't your values either. That's why I am asking you to join me in approving Referendum 71.

Please watch my new video urging Seattleites to register to vote, to turn out the vote and to donate to the Approve 71 campaign. You can watch my "Approve Ref. 71" video here.

We need to spread the word that this will be a tough fight. We need to get out the Seattle vote to show that Washington is a place that treats all families fairly and equally.

Please join me Approving Referendum 71.

For more information or to donate directly, please go to: www.approve71.com. And feel free to forward my video, if it helps get the word out.

Sincerely,


Joe Mallahan

P.S. To remain compliant with election law, I am required to let you know that this was paid for by me personally and not my campaign: Paid for by Joe Mallahan, 3716 Densmore Ave N, Seattle WA 98103. Sponsored by Approve 71, PO Box 12216, Seattle, WA 98102. If you'd like to not receive notices like this in the future, click here to unsubscribe.