WA: I-1033, R-71 Roundup (with video)

"Seven Reasons to Vote Approve on R-71: Reason #6" (ACLU.org) with video (01:40).

"I-1033 puts unreasonble constraints on state and local governments" (Walla Walla Union-Bulletin).

"Tim Eyman's Initiative 1033 would strangle Washington State's libraries" (NPI Advocate).

"I-1033 a costly contest" (Everett Herald).

"Poll: Greater Support For Wash. Gay Partner Law" (On Top Magazine).

"County labor and business leaders against initiative" (Bellingham Herald).

"If kids could vote, Tim Eyman's I-1033 would be discarded into the rubbish bin" (NPI Advocate).

Approve R-71, Vote NO on I-1033 (poster)

"UW Poll: Constantine leads Hutchison, Mallahan tops McGinn" (Updated)

UPDATE: Darryl is a progressive blogger and professor of anthropology @ UDub and provides "Poll Analysis: Washington State I-1033 & R-71, King County Executive and Seattle Mayor." If you hate statistics, don't go there.

Joel Connelly:

Businessman Joe Mallahan has moved out to an eight-point lead over lawyer Mike McGinn in the race for Seattle mayor, according to the new Washington Poll, while Dow Constantine is ahead of Susan Hutchison in the contest for King County executive.

Mallahan is "stretching a lead out even though the figures leave a whopping 19 percent undecided," said University of Washington political scientist Matt Barreto, who oversaw the poll. Mallahan leads 44 percent to 36 percent.

The survey yielded one fascinating development. Mallahan and McGinn were tied during the portion of the poll taken during Oct. 14-20. After McGinn's aparent flip-flop on the deep-bored tunnel replacement for the Alaskan Way Viaduct, subsequent polling showed Mallahan ahead 45 percent to 29 percent.

The Washington Poll's figures in the county exec's race run counter to findings by two SurveyUSA polls for KING5 news.

The Washington Poll has Constantine at 47 percent, Hutchison with 34 percent with a big 19 percent undecided.

"I think that's going to hold, in large part due to high turnout in the city," Barreto said.

We all knew Seattle was a Democratic city, but the Washington Poll shows just how Democratic. The executive race is officially nonpartisan, but Democrat Constantine has a 70 to 21 percent lead in Jet City. Hutchison is ahead 40-28 in the rest of King County, with a big 32 percent undecided. "They have not circled the wagons for her, at least not yet," Barreto said.

The Washington Poll, which interviewed a total of 724 voters, brings very good news for supporters of same-sex domestic partnerships.

Referendum 71, where an "approved" vote upholds the state's new expanded gay rights law, garners 57 percent 'yes' to 38 percent 'no' with 5 percent undecided. Among voters who say they've already mailed in ballots, R-71 was carrying by a 55-45 margin.

R-71 is ahead by 60-35 in the Puget Sound area and 55-40 elsewhere in Western Washington. But the vote count in Eastern Washington, the most conservative part of the state, breaks nearly even with 46 percent 'yes' and 49 percent 'no.'

The Washington Poll has accurately tracked professional-initiative sponsor Tim Eyman's past victories and defeats.

The latest figures indicate Eyman may be going down to defeat for the first time in an off-year election. Among all registered voters, Eyman's Initiative 1033 is favored by 41 percent and opposed by 46 percent. The measure would restrict spending growth by state, county and local government. Among likely voters, the figures on I-1033 are 40 percent 'yes' and 49 percent 'no,' with about 10 percent undecided.

"The undecideds are starting to trend 'no,'" Barretta said.

The poll was taken Oct. 14-26. It involved actual interviews with voters, unlike the so-called robocalls used in other polls.

The Washington Poll surveyed all regions of the state, but took into account the anticipated higher turnout in King County. It has a margin of error of 3.6 percent and has a pretty good track record in recent elections.

Howie P.S.: Andrew (NPI Advocate) has more instant analysis, from an East King County perspective.

Seattle Times endorses Hutchison; Where's I-1033?

David Goldstein, from "Did Blethen dictate Hutchison endorsement?"

One of the monotonously familiar knocks against bloggers like me is that we are just partisan shills, but if and when we are, at least we’re honest about it. So when an editorial board like the Times’ pretends that its endorsements come through candidate interviews and informed discourse, when in fact they merely reflect the anti-labor, anti-tax, pro-Republican views of their boss… well then… the entire endorsement process becomes just as much a lie as those of Hutchison which their paper has chosen to cover up.

Josh Feit, "Well, At Least One Seattle Times Ed Board Member Doesn’t Like Hutchison."

I was on KUOW this morning with Seattle Times editorial board member Lynne Varner.

We were talking abbout Susan Hutchison and Varner said Hutchison’s GOP allegiances weren’t a problem, it’s more that Hutchison is being disingenuous about it.

I couldn’t agree more. It’s like the old Watergate adage, it’s not the crime, it’s the coverup. Being a Republican isn’t a crime (although this is King County). But seriously, Hutchison’s evasion is the problem.

And I said so on this morning’s show, seconding Varner, pointing out that Hutchison isn’t only being disingenuous, she’s being dishonest. Last night on KCTS , when asked why she donated to a hyper conservative like Mike Huckabee, she told an inncoent-ish story about first hearing of Huckabee in the fall of 2007 from a political friend. (Hutchison wasn’t political she said because she was just coming off being a journalist). The friend, she said, told her about Huckabee and invited her to a Huckabee lunch. Hutchison said she didn’t go to the lunch, but wrote a check for $500 anyway.

Okay, that’s weird in itself: She wrote a check for $500 based on a friend’s recommendation without seeing Huckabee speak?

Yep. It is weird. In fact, its not true. She’d already seen Huckabee speak. And she already had a high opinion of him. Hutchison emceed a 2006 dinner for the Wahsington Policy Center, the local conservative think tank, where Huckabee was the keynote speaker.

A year later, in September 2007, Hutchison emceed the WPC’s dinner again (Jeb Bush was the keynote.) And at that dinner, Hutchison kicked off her speech with a rave about Huckabee. Here’s the video. Go to the seven minute mark and you’ll hear her heap praise on Huckabee.

“As you know if you’ve been here before, our speakers inform, inspire and predict the future. Anyone who was here last year is not surprised that Mike Huckabee is perfroming well in the presidential race for the Republican primary. You may recall that last year Mike warned of the infrastructure problems in his own state and all through the country and sure enough we had a tragedy in Minnesota and now infrastructure is one of the biggest issues that we face today. And that started last year. We were informed by Mike Huckabee.”

Hutuchison’s $500 donation to Huckabee came two months later, in November 2007.

Varner must have cringed when I told this story. The Seattle Times endorsed Hutchison this afternoon.

Howie P.S.: In other election news, "Vote "No" on I-1033... if you can find it."

"I-1033’s “windfall for the rich,” typical of Eyman initiatives" (with video)

David Goldstein-HASeattle, with video (00:31):

As I explained the other day, one of the impacts of I-1033 would be to reduce regular property tax levies in many taxing districts to, well, zero, and as Danny Westneat astutely points out in today’s Seattle Times, this would only make our already regressive tax structure even more regressive, amounting to little more than a giant tax break for the rich.

• Eventually give the richest man in the world, Bill Gates, up to a $571,000 break on the $1 million in annual property taxes he pays on his Medina mansion.

• Slash the taxes on billionaire Paul Allen’s waterfront home, on Mercer Island, by up to $150,000.

• Over time eliminate $1.7 million of the annual property taxes that Bellevue mogul Kemper Freeman pays on just one of his malls, Bellevue Square.

Not that this should surprise anyone, as the net effect of all of Tim Eyman’s tax-cutting initiatives has always been to favor the wealthy at the expense of the poor and middle class. Take Timmy’s hallmark I-695, which essentially eliminated car tabs, which, imperfect as they were, at the time constituted our only truly progressive tax on the books. Households with expensive, fancy cars (like Eyman’s) saved thousands of dollars, while those driving junkers actually saw their car tabs go up. Meanwhile, ferry riders saw fares rise and service decline, while rural cities and counties saw the sales tax equalization payments they once relied upon virtually disappear, resulting in loss of essential services, and in some cases, insolvency and unincorporation.

Likewise, Eyman’s I-747 has had an equally devastating impact, particularly on rural and poorer communities, and especially those without the rash of new construction that somewhat buoyed tax rolls here in King County until the recent housing market collapse. Limit your local fire district’s revenue growth to one-percent a year, and you could end up saving tens of dollars annually on your property tax bill, but see your Public Protection District rating drop a couple notches in the process, and your homeowner’s insurance might double or even triple. That’s the sort of hidden tax on working families that Eyman’s rhetoric hides.

According to Eyman’s favorite source, the Tax Foundation, Washington state and local taxes have steadily fallen over the past fifteen years, from 10.4% of personal income in 1994 to 8.9% in 2008, and yet given what support there is for I-1033, many Washingtonians obviously don’t feel the cuts. Why? Because for the most part, they haven’t received them. Not because legislators and other elected officials have ignored the mandate’s of Eyman’s initiatives (to the contrary, they’ve slavishly obeyed the measures, even when they were thrown out by the courts), but because under Eyman’s pro-wealthy tax policies, Washington’s tax structure has grown even more regressive.

Is this an accident or an oversight or an unintended consequence? Hardly. Eyman could have targeted our highly regressive sales tax, or even unit-based “sin taxes” like alcohol and tobacco, the most regressive sort of tax of all.

But instead he’s focused entirely on those tax cuts that would benefit the wealthy the most, all the while spewing his familiar faux-populist rhetoric about defending the average taxpayer.

It is ironic that if I-1033 is to pass, it can only do so with the overwhelming support of those it will harm the most. But then, that’s been the way of all of Eyman’s initiatives.

KCTS Political Round Table: "2009 King County Executive and Seattle Mayor's Race" (video)

KCTS, with video (08:39):

The Seattle Times Joni Balter, Republican strategist Chris Vance and Democratic strategist Cathy Allen talk about the 2009 King County Executive Race between Dow Constantine and Susan Hutchison and the Seattle Mayor's race between Joe Mallahan and Michael McGinn.

Howie P.S.: According to a KING5TV poll quoted by host Enrique Cerna, 24% of Seattle voters are "undecided" on the Seattle Mayor's race.

I-1033 and R-73 campaign videos (video)

League of Women Voters Washington (I-1033): video (02:11).

"Sacred Ground (R-71)" (Protect Marriage Washington), video (00:32).

Howie P.S.: I do not have permission from Protect Marriage Washington to embed their video.

"Times endorses No on I-1033"

David Goldstein:

As expected, the Seattle Times has endorsed No on I-1033, as will most every other newspaper in the state. But while it is a responsible editorial, and fairly well argued, I couldn’t help reading it with an involuntary roll of the eyes, for some of the common misconceptions the editors attempt to correct, happen to be ones they’ve worked damn hard to create.

The Times now argues that Washington is not a high tax state (in fact, we’re 35th by Tim Eyman’s own source), but this will strike many readers as quite contrary to the impression the Times itself has left over the past few years, whether arguing for estate tax repeal, or in favor of an all-cuts budget, or in support of Dino Rossi and other conservative Republicans. Even former state Republican Party Chair Chris Vance has acknowledged that King County’s budget woes are largely due to a structural revenue deficit, not out of control spending, a fact based reality the Times appears pained to grasp.

I-1033, unlike I-601, applies to counties and cities as well. In all of them, growth in property-tax revenue is limited to 1 percent plus taxes on new construction. Cities and counties are finding it a hard limit to live with. Any further limit on their tax collections should be up to the citizens in each jurisdiction.

Further limits? The existing 1 percent cap is an arbitrary and ridiculous limit that is already eroding the ability of local governments to provide basic services, and the Times is willing to even suggest the notion of further limits… and in an anti-1033 editorial no less?

There are two reasons why Eyman’s I-1033 still has a chance to pass. 1) Investment banker Michael Dunmire; without his money none of Eyman’s recent measures would have qualified for the ballot; and 2) Our state and local media have relentlessly created the impression in the minds of many voters that Washington is a high-tax state with out of control spending… and editorializing against Eyman’s initiative once every year or so, is not enough to change that impression.

"Would You Put Your Future In The Hands Of This Man?" (photo)

Tim Eyman, the gorilla behind I-1033.

H/t to Daniel Kirkdorffer.