Thursday, January 10, 2008

"Clinton, Obama Battle Makes for Partisan Politics Without Unity"

Bloomberg:
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton face a long, bitter battle for the Democratic presidential nomination, complicating their need to project themselves as leaders who can unite the party and inspire the nation.
It will be a tough balancing act for the two U.S. senators, who have each won one contest. Coming out of a victory in New Hampshire this week, Clinton has to avoid exacerbating her high negative ratings. Obama must fight back while maintaining his image as being above partisan politics.

``The biggest challenge is trying to fly through all the negative turbulence at a time when you're trying to lift the country and deliver a positive message of change,'' said David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist. ``We certainly are not going to be potted plants if we're attacked.''

The campaign became more personal in New Hampshire as former President Bill Clinton criticized Obama's claim that he has consistently opposed the war in Iraq, and Hillary Clinton, 60, derided her opponent for what she suggested was an effort to liken himself to President John F. Kennedy.

The tactic may have worked: Clinton won a surprise victory in the state five days after losing to Obama in the Iowa caucuses.

New Calendar

Intensifying the normal dynamics of a hard-fought race this year is the unprecedented election calendar. On Feb. 5, voters in more than 20 states -- including New York, Illinois and California -- will go to the polls, which will strain the resources of every candidate.

To win, Clinton and Obama, 46, plan to amplify their messages on the national stage. Aides said Clinton, of New York, will continue hammering home the contrast between Obama's promise of change and her lengthier record on issues -- a difference her campaign calls ``talk versus action.''

``We now have two front-runners that need to act like underdogs,'' said Stephanie Cutter, an unaligned Democratic strategist who worked on John Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign. ``Both candidates need to find a way to continue to embody those successful elements of their campaign while also offering some sharp contrasts.''

Iraq War

Clinton and her husband are trying to chip away at Obama's advantage among people who consider the war in Iraq a top issue. Exit polls in New Hampshire showed that Clinton has an edge among people who consider the economy most important, while Obama, of Illinois, wins among those who cite Iraq.

The increasing bitterness in the race became apparent when Bill Clinton criticized Obama's campaign for giving negative information to reporters about the Clintons. ``Scouring me, scathing criticism, over my financial reports,'' Clinton said.

He also questioned Obama's claim of having better judgment on the war, which Obama opposed from the start. Clinton said his wife and Obama have the same voting records on the issue in the Senate. ``This whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen,'' he told an audience at Dartmouth College.

The Clintons are responding to a perception among Americans that Obama is more likeable: A Nov. 30-Dec. 2 USA Today/Gallup poll found that 50 percent of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Clinton, compared with 33 percent for Obama.

Message of Change

Obama is relying on his message of change while emphasizing his own experience in the U.S. Senate, as an Illinois state senator and as a community organizer.

``We have to make sure that I'm making an argument about the kind of experience I bring,'' Obama said on NBC television's ``Today'' show yesterday.

As they make their arguments, the candidates don't want to do anything to alienate the other's base of supporters and jeopardize the excitement among Democrats, said Tad Devine, a top strategist on Kerry's 2004 campaign.

``Obama doesn't want to lose this by changing the tone and character of his campaign, and the Clinton people don't want to lose this by going after Obama in the wrong way,'' Devine said. ``We're trying to avoid a nomination process that splits the party in a fundamental way.''

In an e-mail to supporters yesterday, Obama fell back on his lofty rhetoric while seeking donations. ``We can overcome the division and distraction that have clouded Washington,'' he said.

Hauling In Cash

Such appeals allowed Obama to bring in more than $22.5 million for the primary elections in the fourth quarter, out- raising Clinton for the year. He may head into next month's primaries with a cash advantage, though it's not likely to be nearly as big after Clinton's New Hampshire victory. Obama's campaign said it raised an additional $8 million since Jan. 1.

The money started flowing in after Obama's victory in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses. Fund-raiser James Torrey arrived home from Asia early the next day to find his Blackberry full.

``There are 100 messages on there, and half of them are people who have turned me down for money,'' said Torrey, 60, chief executive officer of the New York-based fund of funds, Torrey Associates LLC. ``They basically said, `I'm in.'''

The campaigns will need that money as they enter a phase of heavy advertising trying to get their messages out.

`Every Penny'

``It's literally every penny you can raise,'' said Tobe Berkovitz, the interim dean of Boston University's communications school who has advised campaigns in the past. ``It's not just television and radio and cable, it's also telephone and field offices and copy machines and gasoline.''

A campaign just trying to cover California with advertising might have to spend between $2 million and $4 million a week, said Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of Arlington, Virginia-based TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis. A candidate probably needs $15 million to $30 million in cash for ads to have ``some successful coverage'' on Feb. 5, he said.

Clinton's win should give her a bump; she brought in $1.1 million after winning New Hampshire and had $25 million in the bank this week after raising about $110 million last year, campaign Chairman Terry McAuliffe said.

``The road ahead looks to be hotly contested,'' said Mike Feldman, who was a senior adviser to former Vice President Al Gore during his 2000 presidential campaign and isn't working for a candidate this year. ``They clearly both have the resources to wage what is essentially now moving into a national campaign.''

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