"Obama's numbers"

Markos:

Lots of bloggers like Atrios and Stoller are saying the money primary bores them. Not me. Q1 isn't as interesting as the Q2 numbers, when all the low-hanging fruit has dried up and campaigns get desperate in their fundraising efforts, but still, this is the first benchmark to where the 2008 candidates are.

As such, there are all sorts of parlor tricks the campaigns are using to puff up their numbers. For example, Hillary announced a $36 million quarter. But, $10-11 million of that was a transfer from her Senate campaign. $25-26 million for the quarter is no shabby result, of course, but we also don't know how much of that money is for the primary, and how much is for the general. Candidates are allowed to ask for $2,300 for each, but anything above the first $2,300 cannot be spent in the primary. For candidates like Giuliani, apparently a big chunk of his $15 million is earmarked for the general. Of Romney's $23 million, however, all of it is primary money.

So part of the fun here isn't just the total amounts raised, but which campaigns are willing to use subterfuge to try and artificially boost their numbers. We'll know the details once the reports are filed on the 15th.

As for announcements, just one major campaign has failed to announce numbers. The Obama people are keeping their numbers close to their vests, which is pretty smart. They're obviously angling for a news cycle of their own. Now, that could mean a shitty fundraising quarter, which would mean a Friday afternoon news dump. Or, more likely, they've got numbers that will blow everyone else away. NBC's Andrea Mitchell, who I've never believed before so I'm not ready to start today, thinks it's the latter.

The best guidance we have from people in the know in the campaign ... is that he may be as high as $25 million, all of which he can spend on the primary campaign. And as you know, of that $26 million that she's raised, she won't say how much of that is primary campaign dollars. Some of it may be money that she can't spend unless she wins the nomination.

If Obama outraises Hillary in the quarter in primary dollars, it will be HUGE news. The Hillary operation has three main selling points when arguing she's inevitable: 1) she can raise gobs of money, 2) she has the best staff, and 3) she has great name recognition.

I think #3 works against her, as all the money in the world won't change people's perceptions of her. #2 is solid -- her campaign staff is the best in the biz, and that matters. And we all know the importance of money in politics.

If Obama outraises Hillary, and does so with a larger number of individual donors, he knocks off one of Hillary's biggest selling points. It would be game changing.

Of course, now that expectations have been raised (by the Obama camp no less, according to the unreliable Mitchell), if Obama comes substantially below Hillary it'll be a disappointment and give Clinton a boost.

Yes, this is all pretty ridiculous. But politics is nothing if not an exercise in the ridiculous. That's what makes it fun. I'm hoping for a Hillary-topping quarter from Obama. If politics is theater, that would create the biggest amount of drama.