Nate Silver: "Do Democrats Have a Shot at the House?"

Nate Silver (NY Times):

So far this election season we have written very little about the race for the House of Representatives. In part this is because this looks to be less dramatic than the presidential race — where Barack Obama has only a slight edge, in my view — or the race for the Senate, which looks increasingly like a tossup.
In the House, by contrast, Republicans are reasonably clear favorites to maintain their majority.
Still, the House is probably more difficult to analyze than the battle for the Senate or the presidential race. Democrats, in my view, do retain something of an upside case that revolves around the possibility that anti-incumbent sentiment could manifest itself in a large amount of Congressional turnover. MORE...