Saturday, August 26, 2006

"Polling Data on Burner versus Reichert"

Matt Stoller:

There's new polling data out on Darcy Burner's race that shows Reichert with a 13 point lead. I buy HorsesAss's spin.

So if Reichert is leading by an apparently comfortable 13 point margin, why did one longtime Democratic politico ecstatically email me that these numbers are "freakin' fantastic"...?

I'm guessing the biggest reason for Democrats to get excited is that Burner's 41 percent is damn impressive considering she entered this race with zero name recognition, and has only just begun to make her first tentative forays into paid media. The poll was conducted 8/22 - 8/23, only a week after Burner made her first, small TV buy; her first direct mail piece is only just now reaching voters.

Much of Reichert's lead can surely be attributed to a huge advantage in name ID - which must register a stratospheric ninety-something percent for the former sheriff and self-proclaimed Green River Killer catcher. It is also an advantage that is surely exaggerated by the fact that the poll did not screen for "likely voters"; this screen won't come until after the primary.

Burner supporters can also be buoyed by the crosstabs, which show only 35% support for President Bush, significantly lower than SurveyUSA's national average. Those who approve of President Bush's job performance choose Reichert by an overwelming 93% to 4% margin. Those who disapprove choose Burner 66% to 27%.

The task for Burner seems clear. She needs to improve her name ID while persuading voters to identify Reichert with President Bush's failed policies.

Darcy is a superstar candidate running a good local campaign. Her first ad was poorly done, but I imagine that they now know that they have to tie Reichert to Bush. We'll see how that goes.

Howie opinion: I'm sure the voters of the 8th CD don't care what Matt thinks, but I'm glad Goldy had a little chat with him about this race.

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