"The Democrats Should Probably Lose In November" (UPDATED)

UPDATE: Geov Parrish sent along this reaction:

Howie,

I actually agree with a lot of this guy's criticisms, but he -- and to a lesser extent you, at the end -- fell into a really common trap: the myth of "losing" presidential elections. The Dems have won them, four in a row. The electoral majority is already there. The problem is that the last two elections, especially in 2000, the elections were close enough that they could be stolen, and they were. The Dems "lost" those elections like a guy pickpocketed on a subway "lost" his wallet. It has not much to do with whether the Dems can get enough people to vote for them; that's only the start of the challenge any more.

But he's right to criticize the Dem leadership, esp. in Congress. It's exactly what Dean's been up against. Thing is, given the politics of party leaders and the manuvering for the 2008 nomination, and people like Rahm Emanuel already trying to shake down lobbyissts for a Dem version of the K Street Project, I don't necessarily believe a Dem majority in one or the other house, or both, will do very much at all to "restore checks and balances," not unless the Dems are forced into it by an angry electoral mob. Which is where we come in...

Otherwise, the current D leadership jin Congress ust won't want to "rock the boat" heading into 2008 by standing up to Bush in a meaningful way on any but a handful of mostly symbolic issues. Watch and see.

Geov

Oliver Willis, with whom I don't agree:

For the sake of America, I hope the Democrats win. In the 5+ years of solid Republican rule, the congress has abdicated its constitutional role as a watchdog. It has become just another cheerleading section for the Republican party and has overseen fraud, waste, criminal activity and the abdication of American values and the abolition of precious liberties.

A Democratic congress would at least restore checks and balances and throw a well-deserving butt or two in jail.

For the sake of the Democratic party, the party's long-term viability, and America's long term existence I sort of hope the Democrats lose this November. A win this Fall would be an endorsement of the party's ridiculously idiotic posture and would reward its sniveling cowardice with power. A Democratic win would put a rubber stamp on the feckless leadership and push the party to keep it going into 2008, where we would lose yet again for the third time out of the last four elections.

The Democratic Party apparently has no clue. It seems to believe that 1994-present is just a temporal hiccup, and all they have to do is wait for the Republicans to self-destruct and naturally inherit the earth and the congress. The party is like the child who refuses to learn its lesson, even though the results of 2000, 2002, and 2004 show us that simply wishing is not a good enough strategy for winning.

I thought they would learn. I thought they would learn to keep the message simple, repeat it often and repeat it wherever the media was. The Republicans have mastered this. The phrases they come up with are not magic (as folks like George Lakoff would have you believe) but appeal to people's gut instincts, especially with their repetition ("Head On, Apply Directly To The Forehead" is just the latest iteration of "Flip Flopper"). Democrats refuse to aim for the gut and the heart and prefer to aim for the head. So many Democrats and progressives think simply dropping a mountain of "facts" to "refute" Republican arguments will work in the public's eyes. But if you're responding, you are already losing.

It's kind of a Nader message, and I think that success will strengthen the Dems more than another failure.