"Free Media Race, March Edition"

Chris Bowers:

Here are the number of results on Google News for each of the 2008 Democratic potentials over the last month (mid-January numbers in parenthesis):

* Barack Obama: 17,488 (9,710)
* John Edwards: 10,954 (5,944)
* Hillary Clinton: 10,777 (5,226)
* Joseph Biden: 4,480 (6,475)
* Chris Dodd: 4,131 (3,218)
* Bill Richardson: 4,062 (3,100)
* Dennis Kucinich: 1,867 (1,862)
* Mike Gravel: 616 (22)

I didn't do searches for Clark or Gore, but feel free to post them in the comments. Biden's brief stint in the media top tier is over, and Richardson is never going to move out of the second tier if he continue to receive press at this rate. Obama is clearly the media rockstar right now, and the more press he gets the higher his name ID (and, quote possibly, his unfavorables) will continue to rise. For the sake of comparison, John McCain comes up with 14,003 results (10,139), Mitt Romney has 9,463 (5,825), and Rudy Giuliani has 7,545 (3,112). Republican insiders and media outlets are granting Romney top tier status, even though no polls are doing the same.

Taking a closer look at the top three contenders, who gets the most individual attention from the American press? Once again, the answer is clearly Barack Obama:

* Barack Obama: 6,584
* Hillary Clinton: 3,229
* John Edwards: 2,487

According to this metric, which only look at results for American new outlets and which excludes the other two candidates from the search for the candidate being looked at, Obama is actually receiving more individual attention than Edwards and Clinton combined. This is particularly a problem for Clinton, since being the frontrunner but receiving less media attention is not a great place to be. Once again, we can see another source of Obama strength. As with his growing support among African-Americans, Obama is clearly making up ground on Clinton, and poses a challenge to her status as the frontrunner.

I was surprised over the weekend to learn that Clinton did not, after all, hold a dominant lead among Democratic Party insiders. For a decent amount of time, I had assumed that was an important advantage Clinton has squared away. However, even though he placed third among DNC members with 11% first-choice support, Obama actually had the highest favorable rating, and comfortably led the second choice support poll. Edwards was also virtually the equal of Clinton in this category. What this tells me is that there will not be a substantial reservoir of Democratic surrogates that any of the top campaigns can tap in order to help drive a negative media narrative about an opponent, ala the campaign to take down Howard Dean back in 2003-2004. Oddly enough, the high favorable ratio of all three among insiders, combined with the enormous lead Obama and Edwards hold in the favorable department in the blogosphere, might actually put Clinton at a decided media disadvantage for the time being.

All and all, what I am getting at here is that signs of Clinton vulnerability are starting to multiply. Without an advantage among African-Americans, insiders, or the media, many of the sources that were once perceived to make her the clear frontrunner are starting to disappear. Even her name ID edge is starting to shrink. Not surprisingly, her overall national lead on Obama is also suffering from shrinkage, and is down to only around ten points right now (see here and here). If anything, right now the current structure appears tilted against her and in favor of Obama. I think it is time for me to revise my forecast of reaching a tied campaign around Memorial Day sharply earlier.

Cross-posted at www.seattleforbarackobama.com.