"Transit Measure Trails, I-960 a Dead Heat in New Poll"

Joel Connelly (Seattle P-I's political blog, "Strange Bedfellows"):

The sweeping roads and mass transit package known as Prop. 1 is narrowly trailing, according to a new non-partisan poll conducted out of a University of Washington Research Center.

The poll shows 43 percent of those surveyed certainor leaning toward a "Yes" vote, with 46 percent in the "No" category. A total of 11 percent of those surveyed remained undecided.

The transit package runs well among Democratic voters, and holds a narrow 47-43 lead in King County. But Republicans oppose it by a two-to-one margin, and Pierce and Snohomish County voters are going against the measure by a 49-37 margin.

The Washington Institute for the Study of Ethnicity and Race, a research center connected to the UW's School of Social Sciences, polled statewide ballot measures as well. A total of 601 voters throughout Washington were interviwed, yielding a 4 percent margin of error.

The tightest vote, the poll found, is on Initiative 960, Tim Eyman's measure that would require two-thirds support in the Legislature to increase state taxes, and would put all fee increases by state agencies to a vote by legislators.

A total of 41 percent said they were certain or likely to back I-960, with 40 percent opposed. A whopping 18 percent remain undecided or are unfamiliar with Eyman's initiative.

I-960 is supported by Republicans and rural voters, but gains a resounding "No" from Democrats and loses in the Puget Sound region.

Another major battle is over Referendum 67, a measure passed by the Legislature that would make it unlawful for insurance companies to unreasonably deny certain coverage claims, and allow for triple damages.

Forty-eight percent of those surveyed said they are certain to vote for R-67 or lean toward approving the measure: 31 percent indicated opposition. More than 20 percent remained undecided or don't know.

The nation's biggest insurance companies have poured more than $11 million into an advertising blitz to defeat the measure.

The industry has work cut out for it in closing days of the campaign, if figures from the Washington Poll are any indication. R-67 is strongly supported by Democrats and independent voters, and leads by a 51-28 margin in the Puget Sound region. Republicans are the only constituency in the poll to oppose it.

School interests appear headed for victory on another measure, according to the poll.

Nearly 60 percent of those surveyed approve amending the state constitution to allow a simple majority -- rather than a 60 percent super-majority -- to approve school tax levies: 31 percent oppose the measure. 11 percent were undecided or didn't know.

The so-called "rainy day fund", requiring the Legislature to set aside one percent of state revenue each year, appears likely to pass. It was favored by a 61-17 margin in the poll.