"WA-Gov: Rematch"

mcjoan (front-paged on Kos):

Remember 2004's closest race? The one that took the longest to decide? The one that got Karl Rove so worked up that Alberto Gonzales ended up firing the U.S. Attorney who wouldn't get involved in the recount fight? Well, sore loser and Rove poster boy Dino Rossi is back to challenge incumbent Christine Gregoire.

CQ puts this race in the no clear favorite category on the basis of how close it was in 2004--179 votes. I think that's wrong, on a number of bases. Rossi was very much a stealth candidate in 2004, the Washington press didn't dig into just how extreme this seemingly affable guy was. And an overly complacent Democratic party in Washington state didn't do a whole lot to help in the effort.

Because of the taint of the U.S. Attorney scandal and Rossi's role, many in the media are already a bit skeptical. Consider this mediocre review from the Seattle PI (via Goldy): "the overarching theme of Rossi’s hourlong speech was retreaded from his 2004 campaign."

As Goldy points out, Rossi's really been running for the past year, he's just been lying about it. And also pushing the boundaries of legality. He set up a non-profit called Forward Washington, raised a ton of money off of it, and used it to campaign around the state, delivering the same stump speech with the same policy priorities that he used in his 2004 race. A few reporters have picked up the story, and the bloggers in Washington aren't going to let it go.

Gregoire has been an effective executive. She's not the greatest campaigner, but has done a great deal to restore the state's fiscal health. She's also shepherded legislation through the statehouse to expand children's health coverage in the state by $64 million, adding 38,500 children to state Medicaid coverage. That expansion, unfortunately, will likely disappear because of Bush's refusal to expand SCHIP. That's a connection Dino Rossi doesn't seem to grasp. When a local reporter asked him about SCHIP he said he didn't have a position on whether Congress should override because, "I'm not in Congress."

Gregoire has a $3 million war chest, though she hasn't officially announced her re-election bid. This isn't going to be a cakewalk by any means for Gregoire--her somewhat deficient skills as a candidate and a state GOP out for blood because of 2004 will make it a challenge. But given that Rossi's true colors have been exposed, as have Gregoire's superior skills as an executive, this race should be categorized as at least leaning Dem.