"R-71 may open race for mayor to write-in bid by Ed Murray"

Emily Heffter and Jim Brunner (Seattle Times):

If state Sen. Ed Murray launches a write-in campaign for Seattle mayor, a referendum on a gay-rights law likely would bring extra attention to his candidacy.

Murray could announce his decision on the mayor's race as early as today. Meanwhile, gay-rights supporters are mobilizing to retain the law — passed by the Legislature this year, and championed by Murray — that grants same-sex, registered domestic partners the same state benefits as married couples.

Referendum 71, apparently headed for the November ballot, seeks to undo the law.

On Monday, Murray wasn't willing to discuss why he was considering running for mayor. He had R-71 on his mind.

"I'm not having that conversation now," he said. "I just heard R-71 qualified, and I have to shift gears."

But more is involved in the decision to run than R-71. Successful write-in campaigns are rare, and Murray would have to overcome skepticism from business and labor leaders who question whether he could win.

Mayor Greg Nickels' loss to Joe Mallahan and Mike McGinn left some of the city's biggest political interest groups without an obvious candidate for the fall.

Labor and business groups skewered Mallahan in the final weeks of the primary campaign for his lack of civic experience. His work as an executive at T-Mobile, a company that labor groups view as anti-union, also drew criticism. McGinn opposes replacing the Alaskan Way Viaduct with a tunnel — a project heavily supported by business and labor.

McGinn said Monday he would welcome Murray into the race. "Seattle deserves a great debate," McGinn said.

But Mallahan said he would be disappointed. "I think it would be distracting for the campaign, and would make it harder to focus on the issues that we've discussed in the campaign so far."

A Mallahan supporter noted the difficulty of write-in campaigns.

"Senator Murray, of course, is well-known and well-respected," said Tayloe Washburn, a board member of the Alki Foundation, the political arm of the Greater Seattle Chamber of Commerce. "However, I think history suggests that it would be very, very difficult for a write-in candidate in a general election to be successful, and that's one of the things he has to consider."

Dave Freiboth, executive secretary of the M.L. King County Labor Council, said voters might see it as condescending to have a third candidate foisted on them after the primary.

"I'm not sure that the vast majority of Seattleites are saying, 'Oh my god, what have we done?' " he said.

Dwight Pelz, chairman of the Washington State Democrats, agreed that voter sentiment might not be ideal for a write-in.

"Write-in campaigns require anger, and I don't know that there is anger in the city over this choice," he said.

Unlike McGinn and Mallahan, Murray is an established politician. He was appointed to the state House in 1995 and elected the next year. He won a Senate seat in 2006.

Murray was a key player in ushering through an $8.5 billion transportation tax package in 2005, which included the largest gas-tax increase in state history, and is considered the lawmaker largely responsible for pushing through the state's first gay-rights law in 2006, which bans discrimination based on sexual orientation. Murray pressed for the law for more than a decade.

This year, he sponsored the legislation to replace the Alaskan Way Viaduct with a tunnel.

Seattle Deputy Mayor Tim Ceis said Murray could grab support as a gay candidate when voters will be considering R-71.

Even though Murray's campaign could compete with the anti-R-71-campaign for funding, state Rep. Jamie Pedersen, D-Seattle, said having the referendum on the ballot "would be a positive for him, on balance."

Murray would have a base of support beyond the gay community because of his work on transportation and other issues, Pedersen said.

Significant write-in campaigns often require some unusual event to galvanize voters.

In 1994, Linda Smith won a write-in campaign in the Republican primary for the 3rd Congressional District, representing Southwest Washington.

Smith succeeded, in part, because the leading Republican candidate, Tim Moyer, had withdrawn from the race. Moyer's name remained on the ballot, but he did not campaign.

Smith went on to defeat Democrat Jolene Unsoeld in the general election.

In San Diego in 2004, a write-in candidate nearly was elected mayor.

Donna Frye, a City Council member, looked to be on the verge of defeating incumbent Mayor Dick Murphy, but a judge refused to count thousands of ballots on which voters wrote in Frye's name but neglected to fill in the small, oval-shaped bubble next to it.

"There are relatively few candidates who can pull it off. I think Ed Murray's one of them," said David Rolf, president of Local 775 of the Service Employees International.