Thursday, December 20, 2007

"Can We Vote Already?"

Scott Galindez (truthout):
Is it just me, or are others so fatigued by this presidential election that, in the final days of the campaign, you just wish it was over? Don't get me wrong; this is a very important election - an election that will have major impacts on all our lives. But did it have to start so long ago? Usually, voters start paying attention around Labor Day. But this time around, I think the voters were already burned out months before.
Do we need dozens of debates to learn where candidates stand? O.K., Mike Huckabee seems to have won voters over in his debate performances, but did we need ten Republican debates since August? Wasn't it the Youtube debate that put Huckabee on the map? I think five debates between Labor Day and the Iowa Caucus are plenty.

Can anyone tell me three things they learned about a candidate they didn't already know about them before these debates? And what makes Iowans and New Hampshirites so important anyway? Let's have five debates between Labor Day and a three-day national primary in mid-January. Or, better yet, kick off the campaign for the nominations in January, have one big primary in May. O.K., I have vented enough, and am ready to spend the next two months or so helping you to sort out what is going on.

Lets start out with the Democrats. The polls in Iowa only tell us it is going to be a long night. With three candidates polling above 20 percent, and no one pulling away, the question will be where the second-tier candidates' supporters will move in the closing days, and after the first round.

Gov. Bill Richardson could emerge as the king- or queen-maker. He could throw his support to one of the top three after the first round of voting. Remember, Iowa is a caucus: Voters meet by precincts and publicly declare their support for a candidate. They then regroup throughout the night until one candidate has 50 percent of the vote in that precinct. Four years ago, Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt were leading in the polls going in, but they finished third and fourth, with John Kerry and John Edwards surging past them.

One thing I noticed was the Gephardt camp moving to Kerry. One has to wonder if John Edwards and Barak Obama will make a "Stop Hillary deal."

The way this could work is they could ask their supporters to move to the other candidate after the initial round, if they are behind the other candidate and Hillary. The effect would be to slow the Clinton Machine down heading into New Hampshire. This is a long-shot scenario.

It's more likely deals will come from the second-tier. It is widely believed Bill Richardson is running for the second spot on the ticket. With his close ties to the Clintons, I could see him encouraging his supporters to move to Hillary after the first vote. If he is able to deliver his supporters to Clinton, it could give Richardson a leg up in the race for vice president.

Four years ago, Dennis Kucinich made a deal with John Edwards, but Kucinich supporters were activists who weren't easy to influence, and many did not follow the campaign's suggestion to move to Edwards.

So, when you look at the Iowa polls, remember the Caucus process skews them. I can see any of the top three walking away with victory.

New Hampshire and Beyond

With Obama's resurgence in New Hampshire polls, and a possible boost for Edwards and Obama coming out of Iowa, New Hampshire looks like it could be competitive. If Hillary wins Iowa and New Hampshire, then it will be all over on January 8. A win in New Hampshire by Clinton could also be the end for the rest of the Democratic field.

After Iowa and New Hampshire, we will probably see the exit of Richardson, Dodd and Biden, unless one of them surprises with a strong performance. Kucinich and Gravel are probably in for the long haul since they were only in to influence the debate.

Taking a close look at the New Hampshire Polls, Hillary Clinton is not losing support, but Obama seems to be picking up the undecided and is actually leading the latest polls, although only within the margin of error.

We see the same trend in South Carolina and Nevada where Obama is surging and Hillary has seemed to peak.

John Edwards has staked his campaign on Iowa and has been stuck in the low 20s for months. He has enough support in Iowa to be a factor there, but if he doesn't win, it doesn't appear he has enough support anywhere else to challenge for the nomination.

Summary of the Democratic Race

Forget the national polls; the winner in Iowa could get a boost - this is John Edwards only hope. If Obama takes Iowa and New Hampshire - look out - he is in a good position to take South Carolina and Nevada as well.

Hillary is still in the strongest position; she only needs a couple of wins in the early states to maintain her leads in other states, and would be able to wrap it up on super Tuesday.

I will take a look at the Republican race in the coming days. Just waiting for results from the FOX News debate ... Oh, it was canceled. Thank God ...

1 comment:

George Vreeland Hill said...

The Republican Party is a sick joke, and the people of this country are fed up with them.
From Nixon to Bush, and from Scooter to Larry "Toilet Stall" Craig, the Republicans have proven themselves to be a bunch of lying, corrupt, evil, perverted, over-spending crooks.
When you look at all the money Bill Clinton left this country, it makes us all cry to know that Bush spent it all. Wow!
When the money was gone, Bush went to China for help.
Just think, we owe money to China!
That is the Bush way.
Cheney is no better.
You can't trust either of them.
No one does.
Why are we in Iraq?
The war should be on terror, not in Iraq.
Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11, and yet Bush has spent all that money to fight "his" war.
Yes his, because many Republicans have backed off from the war.
By the way, the war in Iraq has cost the U.S. almost five hundred billion dollars.
Forget Rudy.
Rudy Giuliani is no hero.
While he is often called the hero of 9/11, the truth is that Rudy was a terrible leader during his years as mayor of New York City.
He made bad decisions and even took a girlfriend while being married.
In fact, he even wanted his lover to live in the same house with his wife.
Most people would call this perverted.
New Yorkers were so sick of his antics, that they wanted him out of office.
Then came 9/11.
The only reason people call Giuliani a hero today, is because he just happened to be NYC's mayor during that bad time.
Any mayor would be looked at as a hero if they showed their face under those circumstances.
If there was no 9/11, Rudy would have become a joke.
This is not the kind of leader we want in the White House. In closing, the New York Post reported in their paper on April 23, that Giuliani spent more than $48,000 dollars of campaign money on posh hotels while claiming to have spent the least of all the Republican candidates.
Rudy is a good time leader, and does it with other people's money.
Forget Mitt.
His ads look bad.
He can't seem to get his facts right, and will say things to make himself look good.
Red flags go up around him.
I spoke with his son Tagg at the New Hampshire debates back in June (2007), and while he seemed like a nice man, Tagg could not get his facts right either.
The worst Republican as of late, though, is Larry Craig.
He is a lying pervert who wanted gay sex with a strange man on a dirty toilet seat.
He pled guilty, then said he was not guilty.
Say what?
He is another Republican moron.
Did you hear about Washington State Republican Rep. Richard Curtis?
He offered $1,000 to a young man for unprotected sex while dressed in women's lingerie.
This sort of thing just goes on and on with them.
Remember Mark Foley?
Here is a letter I wrote that was in many newspapers and Web sites:

Once again, the Republicans have turned my stomach with shocking and repulsive behavior.
Mark Foley, a Republican member (now ex-member) of Congress, has sent many e-mails with perverted sexual content to a sixteen year old boy.
This is the same man who while in Congress, backed a bill that was meant to protect children from child predators.
Foley himself, is a man who preyed on a child with lust.
What is also incomprehensible, is the fact that some Republicans knew of Foley’s behavior, and yet, did not take a hard stand against this until it became public news. If I had a teenage son and/or daughter, I would not want them to go near any Republican leader for fear of either or both becoming a victim of a sick Republican pervert.

George Vreeland Hill

There are more than three hundred such letters this year alone in newspapers.
Many of them in New Hampshire.
There are thousands on the Internet.
No lie.
In fact, one Republican in California wanted me stopped once, because I was hurting some Republicans in their elections.
I just want to do my part in helping to get rid of every Republican scumbag.
From phone scams to the Union Leader (NH) covering up for Republicans, the garbage never ends.
But the Republican Party will end.
Did you know that George W. Bush once made fun of the issue of Weapons of Mass Destruction?
He did, and in front of some shocked people during a black-tie event in 2004.
He said.... (While looking under a piece of furniture) "Those weapons of mass destruction have got to be here somewhere."
Then, while pretending to look out of a window, Bush laughed as he said..... "Nope, no weapons over there."
While he was laughing, there were men and women fighting and dying in Iraq because of WMD.
George W. Bush should be removed from office because of that alone.
Face it, Bill Clinton lied about having sex, and was impeached because of it.
George W. Bush however, did far worse, as he laughed at the very people who are fighting for the United States of America!
That about sums it all up!
(By the way, this Bush/WMD was part of an article and letter I wrote as well.)
John McCain laughs at war as well.
He changed the words to a popular Beach Boys song to Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Iran.
What a jerk.
He bashed Hillary for her Woodstock plans because it would cost one million dollars.
He even tried to put the Woodstock goers in a bad light with his own ad.
Someone running for such a high office should never use people for his own gain.
McCain also needs to get his facts right.
He says the Democrats are big spenders, but it is the Republicans who have spent so much money.
The Republican Party is a mess, and getting worse.
People do not trust any of them, and we are all tired of their act.
I am doing my best to make sure that no Republican wins an election.
Thank you for your time.

George Vreeland Hill