Monday, November 19, 2007

"WashPo/ABC News IOWA Poll: O-30; C-26; E-22 [UPDATED]"

DemDog's diary on Kos:

The hard numbers:

Obama 30, Clinton 26, Edwards 22

The money quote:

Obama Finds Help in Iowa With a Focus on New Ideas

A growing focus on fresh ideas coupled with lingering doubts about Hillary Clinton’s honesty and forthrightness are keeping the Democratic presidential contest close in Iowa, with Barack Obama in particular mounting a strong race against the national front-runner.

Most Democratic likely voters in Iowa, 55 percent, say they’re more interested in a "new direction and new ideas" than in strength and experience, compared with 49 percent in July – a help to Obama, who holds a substantial lead among "new direction" voters.

DemDog's diary :: ::

I strongly suggest you look at the numbers behind the numbers here. I think they reveal a lot about the real race, rather than what the media wants you to think the race is about...

UPDATE: Analysis compliments of the Politico's Ben Smith:

Here's one that really changes the narrative, for what the narrative's worth: Obama leads in the new ABC News/Washington Post poll (.pdf) out today.

He's up 30% to 26% , with Edwards at 22% and Richardson still in the game at 11%. This may not really mean something dramatic has changed on the ground -- it's a statistical tie, as the Iowa race has been for a long time.

But the poll finds Clinton losing ground on a number of axes, and strikingly less trusted than Obama, while he's gained ground among older people and women.

Here's the number from the Washington Post story that really struck me, though, and makes her look weak compared to both of her rivals:

And despite widespread impressions that Obama is banking on unreliable first-time voters, Clinton depends on them heavily as well: About half of her supporters say they have never attended a caucus before, compared with 43 percent of first-timers for Obama and 24 percent for Edwards.

If nothing else, this may help explain her sharper new tone and her recent ad, which responds directly to the attacks on her.

Howie P.S.: I have called out Ben Smith as a Hillary sympathizer and even he is impressed---you should be, too. Here's the poll article. Ben Smith's post, where I found the chart above. The Huffington Post headlines this poll, "Obama Pulling Ahead Of Hillary In Iowa Poll" which is probably wishful thinking on their part.

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